50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.63 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,977/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $808/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-28,800 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 34 × $15.50 | 76% | $5,610 | $1,895 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 43 × $15.50 | 70% | $5,512 | $1,138 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 27 × $17.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 20.6% | 96% | 9% | $108 | $810 | -$4,800 | $5,656 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 27 × $17.50 20.6% OTM over spot $14.52 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.04 mid) = $108 credit for the 4d cycle → $810/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $17.55) 96% EV / mo +$502 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.4] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~2.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,075 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,256 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 76% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 27 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.71/sh now → $0.51 mid-life (likely $0.37–$0.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 102 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $18 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $17.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,569 − CC assignment net of premium (27 × $17.50): -$5,656 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (23 × $17): -$5,646 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,533 (+$17,267 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,505 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$972, the opportunity cost of earning $810/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $16.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 13.7% | 90% | 20% | $450 | $3,375 | -$2,235 | $15,225 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $16.50 13.7% OTM over spot $14.52 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.10 mid) = $450 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $16.59) 91% EV / mo +$1,679 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.2] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~5.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,412 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,931 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.67/sh now → $0.48 mid-life (likely $0.43–$0.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 312 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $17 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $16.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,569 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $16.50): -$15,225 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,455 (+$13,345 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,505 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,950, the opportunity cost of earning $3,375/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 35 × $16 | 17 Jul | 4d | 10.2% | 85% | 32% | $490 | $3,675 | -$1,935 | $12,232 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $16 10.2% OTM over spot $14.52 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.15 mid) = $490 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,675/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $16.14) 87% EV / mo +$1,481 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-2.9] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 63% without) · ~7.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,251 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,126 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 80% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.65/sh now → $0.46 mid-life (likely $0.46–$0.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 555 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $16 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $4 below CC-SS $19.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $16.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,569 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $16): -$12,232 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (15 × $17): -$3,682 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,145 (+$12,655 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,505 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,640, the opportunity cost of earning $3,675/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 34 × $15.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 6.8% | 76% | 33% | $748 | $5,610 | — | $13,311 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 34 × $15.50 6.8% OTM over spot $14.52 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.23 mid) = $748 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,610/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $15.73) 81% EV / mo +$1,619 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [0.9-3.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~13.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,335 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$773 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 34 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.63/sh now → $0.45 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 977 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $16 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $4 below CC-SS $19.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $15.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,569 − CC assignment net of premium (34 × $15.50): -$13,311 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (16 × $17): -$3,928 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,469 (+$11,331 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,505 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,964, the opportunity cost of earning $5,610/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 41 × $15 | 17 Jul | 4d | 3.3% | 65% | 72% | $1,476 | $11,070 | +$5,460 | $17,527 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $15 3.3% OTM over spot $14.52 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.37 mid) = $1,476 credit for the 4d cycle → $11,070/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $15.37) 74% EV / mo +$2,366 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 63% without) · ~19.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,450 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 50% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$299 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $18 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.61/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,508 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $15 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $5 below CC-SS $19.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.36 collected) or spot ≥ $15.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,569 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $15): -$17,527 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $17): -$2,209 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,967 (+$8,833 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,505 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,462, the opportunity cost of earning $11,070/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 38 × $18.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 27.5% | 94% | 13% | $304 | $829 | -$4,683 | $4,009 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $18.50 27.5% OTM over spot $14.52 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.09 mid) = $304 credit for the 11d cycle → $829/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $18.59) 94% EV / mo +$410 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~1.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,398 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,791 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 70% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.15/sh now → $0.81 mid-life (likely $0.63–$1.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 248 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $19 (overshoots $0.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $1 below CC-SS $19.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $18.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,569 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $18.50): -$4,009 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17): -$2,946 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,185 (+$21,615 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,505 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$5,320, the opportunity cost of earning $829/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $18 | 24 Jul | 11d | 24.0% | 92% | 17% | $550 | $1,500 | -$4,012 | $7,625 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $18 24.0% OTM over spot $14.52 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.12 mid) = $550 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $18.12) 93% EV / mo +$719 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.4] median · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~1.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $487 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,412 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 70% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.12/sh now → $0.79 mid-life (likely $0.61–$1.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 350 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $19 (overshoots $0.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $2 below CC-SS $19.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $18.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,569 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $18): -$7,625 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,855 (+$20,945 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,505 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$4,650, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 41 × $16 | 24 Jul | 11d | 10.2% | 77% | 49% | $1,353 | $3,690 | -$1,822 | $13,550 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $16 10.2% OTM over spot $14.52 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.35 mid) = $1,353 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,690/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $16.36) 81% EV / mo +$900 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~6.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,586 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,535 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 78% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.00/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.77–$1.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,283 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $16 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $4 below CC-SS $19.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $16.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,569 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $16): -$13,550 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $17): -$2,209 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,990 (+$12,810 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,505 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,485, the opportunity cost of earning $3,690/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 43 × $15.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 6.8% | 70% | 55% | $2,021 | $5,512 | — | $15,759 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $15.50 6.8% OTM over spot $14.52 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.48 mid) = $2,021 credit for the 11d cycle → $5,512/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $15.98) 76% EV / mo +$1,257 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~8.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,903 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 55% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$913 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.96/sh now → $0.68 mid-life (likely $0.83–$1.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,640 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 11, at $16 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $4 below CC-SS $19.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.47 collected) or spot ≥ $15.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,569 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $15.50): -$15,759 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $17): -$1,718 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,708 (+$11,092 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,505 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,203, the opportunity cost of earning $5,512/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 50 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | -0.1% | 53% | 99+% | $4,100 | $11,182 | +$5,670 | $21,575 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $14.50 0.1% ITM over spot $14.52 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.86 mid) = $4,100 credit for the 11d cycle → $11,182/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 53% Breach risk 47% POP (stays ≤ $15.37) 67% EV / mo +$355 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$909 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.90/sh now → $0.64 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.82/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $5 below CC-SS $19.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.82 collected) or spot ≥ $15.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,569 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $14.50): -$21,575 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,805 (+$6,995 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,505 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,300, the opportunity cost of earning $11,182/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.116 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$28,569 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-12,505
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 34/50 | $5,610 | $5,588 | 76% | 81% | +$1,619 | -$13,311 | 42.6% | $-17,469 (vs do-nothing $-4,964) |
| $15.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 43/50 | $5,512 | $5,048 | 70% | 76% | +$1,257 | -$15,759 | 50.4% | $-17,708 (vs do-nothing $-5,203) |
| $15.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.66 | 50/50 | $5,500 | $4,692 | 66% | 74% | +$327 | -$17,375 | 55.6% | $-17,605 (vs do-nothing $-5,100) |
| $15 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.36 | 21/50 | $5,670 | $6,286 | 65% | 74% | +$1,212 | -$8,977 | 28.7% | $-16,327 (vs do-nothing $-3,822) |
| $15 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 33/50 | $5,490 | $5,517 | 62% | 72% | +$804 | -$13,282 | 42.5% | $-17,686 (vs do-nothing $-5,181) |
| $15 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 39/50 | $5,525 | $5,257 | 60% | 71% | +$334 | -$14,761 | 47.2% | $-17,692 (vs do-nothing $-5,187) |
| $14.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.03 | 32/50 | $5,493 | $5,569 | 54% | 67% | +$90 | -$13,136 | 42.0% | $-17,785 (vs do-nothing $-5,280) |
| $14.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 25/50 | $5,591 | $6,010 | 53% | 67% | +$177 | -$10,787 | 34.5% | $-17,155 (vs do-nothing $-4,650) |
| $14.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 14/50 | $5,670 | $6,630 | 51% | 67% | +$609 | -$6,433 | 20.6% | $-15,501 (vs do-nothing $-2,996) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.