50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.71 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,912/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $671/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-30,050 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 38 × $16 | 93% | $4,560 | $2,942 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 50 × $16 | 79% | $4,500 | $1,222 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 34 × $18.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 28.4% | 99+% | 0% | $68 | $680 | -$3,880 | $4,053 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 34 × $18.50 28.4% OTM over spot $14.40 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.03 mid) = $68 credit for the 3d cycle → $680/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $18.52) 99+% EV / mo +$680 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [0.9-4.0] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~0.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $771 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,792 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $20 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 34 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.55 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $1 below CC-SS $19.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $18.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,826 − CC assignment net of premium (34 × $18.50): -$4,053 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (16 × $17): -$4,083 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,361 (+$21,689 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,985 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$4,624, the opportunity cost of earning $680/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 37 × $16.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 14.5% | 93% | 13% | $296 | $2,960 | -$1,600 | $11,589 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $16.50 14.5% OTM over spot $14.40 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.08 mid) = $296 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,960/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $16.59) 94% EV / mo +$2,171 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.5] median · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~4.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,901 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,509 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.69/sh now → $0.49 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 101 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $17 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $16.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,826 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $16.50): -$11,589 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $17): -$3,318 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,131 (+$14,919 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,985 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,146, the opportunity cost of earning $2,960/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 38 × $16 | 17 Jul | 3d | 11.1% | 93% | 9% | $456 | $4,560 | — | $13,650 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $16 11.1% OTM over spot $14.40 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.12 mid) = $456 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,560/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $16.12) 94% EV / mo +$3,807 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [1.0-4.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~4.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,275 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,342 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.67/sh now → $0.47 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 270 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $16 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $4 below CC-SS $19.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $16.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,826 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $16): -$13,650 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17): -$3,063 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,937 (+$13,113 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,985 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,952, the opportunity cost of earning $4,560/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $16 | 17 Jul | 3d | 11.1% | 93% | 15% | $600 | $6,000 | +$1,440 | $17,960 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $16 11.1% OTM over spot $14.40 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.12 mid) = $600 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $16.12) 94% EV / mo +$5,009 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [0.9-3.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~4.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,876 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,765 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.67/sh now → $0.47 mid-life (likely $0.43–$0.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 260 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $16 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $4 below CC-SS $19.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $16.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,826 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $16): -$17,960 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,185 (+$11,865 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,985 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,200, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 45 × $15.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 7.6% | 81% | 38% | $900 | $9,000 | +$4,440 | $18,054 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 45 × $15.50 7.6% OTM over spot $14.40 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.21 mid) = $900 credit for the 3d cycle → $9,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $15.71) 85% EV / mo +$4,929 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.7] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~11.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,842 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,162 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.65/sh now → $0.46 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 588 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $16 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $4 below CC-SS $19.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $15.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,826 − CC assignment net of premium (45 × $15.50): -$18,054 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $17): -$1,276 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,555 (+$10,495 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,985 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,570, the opportunity cost of earning $9,000/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 45 × $19 | 24 Jul | 10d | 31.9% | 97% | 7% | $225 | $675 | -$3,825 | $2,979 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 45 × $19 31.9% OTM over spot $14.40 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.06 mid) = $225 credit for the 10d cycle → $675/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $19.05) 97% EV / mo +$470 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.1] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~0.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $177 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,510 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 69% POP 54% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.17/sh now → $0.83 mid-life (likely $0.52–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 71 simulated challenges: the $19 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $19 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $19 is $1 below CC-SS $19.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $19.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $19)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,826 − CC assignment net of premium (45 × $19): -$2,979 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $17): -$1,276 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,480 (+$25,570 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,985 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$8,505, the opportunity cost of earning $675/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 21.5% | 92% | 17% | $600 | $1,800 | -$2,700 | $10,460 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $17.50 21.5% OTM over spot $14.40 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.12 mid) = $600 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $17.62) 93% EV / mo +$1,048 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-3.7] median · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,941 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,223 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 73% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.08/sh now → $0.76 mid-life (likely $0.64–$1.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 309 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $18 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $17.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,826 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $17.50): -$10,460 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,685 (+$19,365 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,985 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$2,300, the opportunity cost of earning $1,800/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 45 × $16.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 14.5% | 85% | 32% | $990 | $2,970 | -$1,530 | $13,464 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 45 × $16.50 14.5% OTM over spot $14.40 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.23 mid) = $990 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,970/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $16.73) 87% EV / mo +$1,345 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.7] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~3.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,627 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,254 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.02/sh now → $0.72 mid-life (likely $0.71–$1.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 687 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $17 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $16.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,826 − CC assignment net of premium (45 × $16.50): -$13,464 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $17): -$1,276 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,965 (+$15,085 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,985 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,980, the opportunity cost of earning $2,970/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 50 × $16 | 24 Jul | 10d | 11.1% | 79% | 31% | $1,500 | $4,500 | — | $17,060 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $16 11.1% OTM over spot $14.40 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.32 mid) = $1,500 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $16.32) 83% EV / mo +$1,699 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.2] median · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~5.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,159 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,995 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.99/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.72–$1.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 938 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $16 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $4 below CC-SS $19.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $16.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,826 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $16): -$17,060 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,285 (+$12,765 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,985 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,300, the opportunity cost of earning $4,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 39 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 0.7% | 55% | 96% | $3,042 | $9,126 | +$4,626 | $17,285 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 39 × $14.50 0.7% OTM over spot $14.40 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.81 mid) = $3,042 credit for the 10d cycle → $9,126/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 55% Breach risk 45% POP (stays ≤ $15.31) 70% EV / mo +$1,799 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [0.9-3.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~22.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,168 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 78% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$572 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 39 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.90/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.89–$1.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.78/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,334 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 10, at $15 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $5 below CC-SS $19.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.78 collected) or spot ≥ $15.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,826 − CC assignment net of premium (39 × $14.50): -$17,285 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (11 × $17): -$2,807 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,317 (+$9,733 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,985 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,332, the opportunity cost of earning $9,126/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.124 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$29,826 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-12,985
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.12 | 38/50 | $4,560 | $4,465 | 93% | 94% | +$3,807 | -$13,650 | 43.7% | $-16,937 (vs do-nothing $-3,952) |
| $15.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.20 | 23/50 | $4,600 | $5,225 | 81% | 85% | +$2,519 | -$9,228 | 29.5% | $-16,343 (vs do-nothing $-3,358) |
| $16 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 50/50 | $4,500 | $3,829 | 79% | 83% | +$1,699 | -$17,060 | 54.6% | $-17,285 (vs do-nothing $-4,300) |
| $15.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 37/50 | $4,551 | $4,504 | 73% | 79% | +$1,376 | -$14,068 | 45.0% | $-17,610 (vs do-nothing $-4,625) |
| $15 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 14/50 | $4,480 | $5,537 | 72% | 81% | +$2,402 | -$6,149 | 19.7% | $-15,561 (vs do-nothing $-2,576) |
| $15.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 40/50 | $4,518 | $4,327 | 69% | 77% | +$1,288 | -$14,288 | 45.7% | $-17,065 (vs do-nothing $-4,080) |
| $15 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 27/50 | $4,617 | $5,050 | 64% | 74% | +$1,141 | -$11,184 | 35.8% | $-17,278 (vs do-nothing $-4,293) |
| $15 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 31/50 | $4,486 | $4,727 | 62% | 73% | +$1,116 | -$12,065 | 38.6% | $-17,139 (vs do-nothing $-4,154) |
| $14.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.01 | 26/50 | $4,634 | $5,115 | 55% | 70% | +$882 | -$10,925 | 35.0% | $-17,275 (vs do-nothing $-4,290) |
| $14.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.51 | 9/50 | $4,590 | $5,887 | 55% | 73% | +$1,701 | -$4,232 | 13.5% | $-14,920 (vs do-nothing $-1,935) |
| $14.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.78 | 20/50 | $4,680 | $5,449 | 55% | 70% | +$923 | -$8,864 | 28.4% | $-16,745 (vs do-nothing $-3,760) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.