50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.69 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,471/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $868/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-23,325 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 36 × $17 | 84% | $4,320 | $1,139 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 46 × $17 | 76% | $4,278 | $763 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 44 × $19 | 17 Jul | 3d | 22.0% | 98% | 5% | $88 | $880 | -$3,440 | $2,946 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 44 × $19 22.0% OTM over spot $15.57 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.03 mid) = $88 credit for the 3d cycle → $880/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $19.02) 98% EV / mo +$600 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-1.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.8 mo) · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~1.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $468 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,095 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $20 @ 76% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 44 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.70/sh now → $0.50 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $19 is $1 below CC-SS $19.69: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $19.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $19)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.69, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,460 − CC assignment net of premium (44 × $19): -$2,946 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $17): -$1,428 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,238 (+$19,087 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,762 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$7,524, the opportunity cost of earning $880/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $18 | 17 Jul | 3d | 15.6% | 94% | 13% | $200 | $2,000 | -$2,320 | $8,247 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $18 15.6% OTM over spot $15.57 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.04 mid) = $200 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $18.05) 94% EV / mo +$812 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without) · ~3.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $898 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,150 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.66/sh now → $0.47 mid-life (likely $0.42–$0.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 173 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $18 (overshoots $0.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $2 below CC-SS $19.69: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $18.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.69, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,460 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $18): -$8,247 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,112 (+$15,213 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,762 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$3,650, the opportunity cost of earning $2,000/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 40 × $17.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 12.4% | 90% | 21% | $280 | $2,800 | -$1,520 | $8,478 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $17.50 12.4% OTM over spot $15.57 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.08 mid) = $280 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $17.58) 91% EV / mo +$972 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.5-2.8] median · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 75% without) · ~5.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,007 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,548 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.65/sh now → $0.46 mid-life (likely $0.43–$0.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 342 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $18 (overshoots $0.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.69: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $17.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.69, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,460 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $17.50): -$8,478 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (10 × $17): -$2,379 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,722 (+$12,603 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,762 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,040, the opportunity cost of earning $2,800/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 36 × $17 | 17 Jul | 3d | 9.2% | 84% | 20% | $432 | $4,320 | — | $9,250 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 36 × $17 9.2% OTM over spot $15.57 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.13 mid) = $432 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $17.13) 86% EV / mo +$1,150 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.6] median · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without) · ~8.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,664 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,166 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 80% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 36 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.63/sh now → $0.44 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 597 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $17 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $3 below CC-SS $19.69: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $17.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.69, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,460 − CC assignment net of premium (36 × $17): -$9,250 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $17): -$3,331 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,446 (+$10,879 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,762 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-684, the opportunity cost of earning $4,320/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 41 × $16.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 6.0% | 75% | 51% | $861 | $8,610 | +$4,290 | $12,216 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $16.50 6.0% OTM over spot $15.57 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.22 mid) = $861 credit for the 3d cycle → $8,610/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $16.72) 79% EV / mo +$1,770 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 71% without) · ~13.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,562 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$906 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 86% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.61/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.50–$0.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,016 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $17 (overshoots $0.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.69: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $16.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.69, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,460 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $16.50): -$12,216 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $17): -$2,142 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,222 (+$9,103 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,762 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,460, the opportunity cost of earning $8,610/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $18 | 24 Jul | 10d | 15.6% | 86% | 29% | $304 | $912 | -$3,366 | $2,906 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $18 15.6% OTM over spot $15.57 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.18 mid) = $304 credit for the 10d cycle → $912/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $18.18) 88% EV / mo +$259 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-3.0] median · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without) · ~2.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,657 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,056 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.01/sh now → $0.72 mid-life (likely $0.60–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 648 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $18 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $2 below CC-SS $19.69: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $18.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.69, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,460 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $18): -$2,906 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (31 × $17): -$7,376 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,147 (+$13,178 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,762 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,615, the opportunity cost of earning $912/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 43 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 12.4% | 82% | 38% | $946 | $2,838 | -$1,440 | $8,469 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $17.50 12.4% OTM over spot $15.57 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.26 mid) = $946 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,838/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $17.76) 84% EV / mo +$634 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.4] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 77% without) · ~3.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,811 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,047 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.98/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.69–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 853 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $18 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.69: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $17.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.69, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,460 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $17.50): -$8,469 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $17): -$1,666 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,999 (+$13,326 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,762 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,763, the opportunity cost of earning $2,838/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 46 × $17 | 24 Jul | 10d | 9.2% | 76% | 38% | $1,426 | $4,278 | — | $10,946 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $17 9.2% OTM over spot $15.57 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.34 mid) = $1,426 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,278/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $17.34) 80% EV / mo +$771 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.7-2.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without) · ~5.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,727 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,685 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 78% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.96/sh now → $0.68 mid-life (likely $0.73–$1.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,130 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $17 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $3 below CC-SS $19.69: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $17.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.69, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,460 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $17): -$10,946 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $17): -$952 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,762 (+$11,563 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,762 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$0, the opportunity cost of earning $4,278/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 35 × $15.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | -0.4% | 51% | 99+% | $2,870 | $8,610 | +$4,332 | $11,793 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $15.50 0.4% ITM over spot $15.57 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.86 mid) = $2,870 credit for the 10d cycle → $8,610/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 51% Breach risk 49% POP (stays ≤ $16.36) 67% EV / mo +$642 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$712 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.87/sh now → $0.62 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.82/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $4 below CC-SS $19.69: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.82 collected) or spot ≥ $16.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.69, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,460 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $15.50): -$11,793 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (15 × $17): -$3,569 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,227 (+$8,098 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,762 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,465, the opportunity cost of earning $8,610/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.139 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$23,460 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-11,762
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.12 | 36/50 | $4,320 | $4,754 | 84% | 86% | +$1,150 | -$9,250 | 29.6% | $-12,446 (vs do-nothing $-684) |
| $17 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.31 | 46/50 | $4,278 | $3,782 | 76% | 80% | +$771 | -$10,946 | 35.0% | $-11,762 (vs do-nothing $-0) |
| $16.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.21 | 21/50 | $4,410 | $6,239 | 75% | 79% | +$907 | -$6,257 | 20.0% | $-13,022 (vs do-nothing $-1,260) |
| $17 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.53 | 46/50 | $4,302 | $3,806 | 72% | 78% | +$783 | -$9,934 | 31.8% | $-10,750 (vs do-nothing +$1,012) |
| $16.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | 33/50 | $4,356 | $5,069 | 69% | 76% | +$654 | -$9,073 | 29.0% | $-12,983 (vs do-nothing $-1,221) |
| $16.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 36/50 | $4,256 | $4,690 | 66% | 75% | +$640 | -$9,070 | 29.0% | $-12,266 (vs do-nothing $-504) |
| $16 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 13/50 | $4,550 | $7,123 | 63% | 72% | +$616 | -$4,341 | 13.9% | $-13,010 (vs do-nothing $-1,248) |
| $16 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | 33/50 | $4,356 | $5,069 | 61% | 70% | $-986 | -$10,723 | 34.3% | $-14,633 (vs do-nothing $-2,871) |
| $16 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 29/50 | $4,299 | $5,383 | 60% | 71% | +$501 | -$8,263 | 26.4% | $-13,125 (vs do-nothing $-1,363) |
| $15.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.03 | 24/50 | $4,362 | $5,912 | 52% | 68% | +$308 | -$7,583 | 24.3% | $-13,634 (vs do-nothing $-1,872) |
| $15.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 18/50 | $4,428 | $6,536 | 51% | 67% | +$330 | -$6,065 | 19.4% | $-13,544 (vs do-nothing $-1,782) |
| $15.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.55 | 8/50 | $4,400 | $7,438 | 50% | 66% | +$283 | -$2,912 | 9.3% | $-12,770 (vs do-nothing $-1,008) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.