50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.49 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,106/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $486/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-18,875 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 2d | 38 × $18 | 93% | $5,130 | $3,489 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 9d | 37 × $17.50 | 75% | $5,057 | $1,573 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 33 × $20 | 17 Jul | 2d | 23.8% | 99% | 1% | $33 | $495 | -$4,635 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 33 × $20 23.8% OTM over spot $16.15 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.02 mid) = $33 credit for the 2d cycle → $495/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $20.02) 99+% EV / mo +$468 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-2.0] median · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 88% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,566 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,575 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $22 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 33 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.69/sh now → $0.49 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $20 is at/above CC-SS $19.49: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.00/sh (~25% of the $0.01 collected) or spot ≥ $20.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,033 − CC assignment net of premium (33 × $20): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (17 × $17): -$2,875 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,717 (+$16,158 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,298 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$5,581, the opportunity cost of earning $495/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 45 × $18.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 14.5% | 96% | 7% | $225 | $3,375 | -$1,755 | $4,235 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 45 × $18.50 14.5% OTM over spot $16.15 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.06 mid) = $225 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $18.55) 97% EV / mo +$2,817 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-1.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.8 mo) · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 88% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,401 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,803 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $21 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.64/sh now → $0.45 mid-life (likely $0.43–$0.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 82 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $19 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $1 below CC-SS $19.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $18.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,033 − CC assignment net of premium (45 × $18.50): -$4,235 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $17): -$846 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,923 (+$13,952 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,298 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$3,375, the opportunity cost of earning $3,375/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 38 × $18 | 17 Jul | 2d | 11.4% | 93% | 7% | $342 | $5,130 | — | $5,324 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $18 11.4% OTM over spot $16.15 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $342 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,130/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $18.09) 94% EV / mo +$3,950 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-2.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 81% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 88% without) · ~3.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,554 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,324 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $20 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.62/sh now → $0.44 mid-life (likely $0.46–$0.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 197 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $18 (overshoots $0.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $1 below CC-SS $19.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $18.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,033 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $18): -$5,324 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17): -$2,029 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,196 (+$11,679 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,298 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,102, the opportunity cost of earning $5,130/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $18 | 17 Jul | 2d | 11.4% | 93% | 14% | $450 | $6,750 | +$1,620 | $7,006 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $18 11.4% OTM over spot $16.15 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $450 credit for the 2d cycle → $6,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $18.09) 94% EV / mo +$5,197 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.0] median · 82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 88% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,886 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,742 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $20 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.62/sh now → $0.44 mid-life (likely $0.43–$0.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 196 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $18 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $1 below CC-SS $19.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $18.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,033 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $18): -$7,006 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,848 (+$12,027 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,298 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,450, the opportunity cost of earning $6,750/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 45 × $17.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 8.3% | 87% | 27% | $675 | $10,125 | +$4,995 | $8,285 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 45 × $17.50 8.3% OTM over spot $16.15 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.16 mid) = $675 credit for the 2d cycle → $10,125/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $17.66) 89% EV / mo +$6,715 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-2.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo) · 84% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 88% without) · ~6.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,206 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,243 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $20 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.60/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.47–$0.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 465 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $18 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $17.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,033 − CC assignment net of premium (45 × $17.50): -$8,285 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $17): -$846 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,973 (+$9,902 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,298 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-675, the opportunity cost of earning $10,125/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $20 | 24 Jul | 9d | 23.8% | 94% | 12% | $152 | $507 | -$4,550 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $20 23.8% OTM over spot $16.15 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.08 mid) = $152 credit for the 9d cycle → $507/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $20.09) 95% EV / mo +$305 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.5] median · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 85% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,377 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,361 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $20 @ 70% POP 58% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.13/sh now → $0.80 mid-life (likely $0.59–$1.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 204 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $20 (overshoots $0.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $20 is at/above CC-SS $19.49: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $20.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,033 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $20): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (31 × $17): -$5,242 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,084 (+$13,791 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,298 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$3,213, the opportunity cost of earning $507/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $19.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 20.7% | 92% | 16% | $550 | $1,833 | -$3,223 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $19.50 20.7% OTM over spot $16.15 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.12 mid) = $550 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,833/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $19.62) 93% EV / mo +$1,027 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-2.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 90% without) · ~1.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,779 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,333 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $20 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.10/sh now → $0.78 mid-life (likely $0.63–$1.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 268 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $20 (overshoots $0.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $19.50 is at/above CC-SS $19.49: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $19.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,033 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $19.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $158 (+$19,033 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,298 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$8,456, the opportunity cost of earning $1,833/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 46 × $18.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 14.5% | 86% | 29% | $1,012 | $3,373 | -$1,683 | $3,547 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $18.50 14.5% OTM over spot $16.15 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.23 mid) = $1,012 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,373/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $18.73) 88% EV / mo +$1,625 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.5] median · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without) · ~2.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,602 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,377 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $20 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.04/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.66–$1.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 558 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $19 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $1 below CC-SS $19.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $18.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,033 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $18.50): -$3,547 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $17): -$676 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,066 (+$14,809 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,298 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$4,232, the opportunity cost of earning $3,373/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 37 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 8.3% | 75% | 41% | $1,517 | $5,057 | — | $5,850 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $17.50 8.3% OTM over spot $16.15 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.42 mid) = $1,517 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,057/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $17.93) 80% EV / mo +$1,818 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.6] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 81% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without) · ~5.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,650 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,062 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $20 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.99/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.78–$1.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,216 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $18 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $17.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,033 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $17.50): -$5,850 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $17): -$2,198 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,891 (+$10,984 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,298 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$407, the opportunity cost of earning $5,057/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 41 × $16.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 2.2% | 59% | 86% | $3,034 | $10,113 | +$5,057 | $9,230 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $16.50 2.2% OTM over spot $16.15 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.75 mid) = $3,034 credit for the 9d cycle → $10,113/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $17.25) 72% EV / mo +$2,451 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.4-2.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 79% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 88% without) · ~11.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,703 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 70% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$340 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $20 @ 93% POP 93% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.93/sh now → $0.66 mid-life (likely $0.89–$1.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.74/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,098 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $17 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.74 collected) or spot ≥ $17.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,033 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $16.50): -$9,230 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $17): -$1,522 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,594 (+$8,281 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,298 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,296, the opportunity cost of earning $10,113/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 13 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.140 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$19,033 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-8,298
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $18 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.09 | 38/50 | $5,130 | $6,444 | 93% | 94% | +$3,950 | -$5,324 | 17.0% | $-7,196 (vs do-nothing +$1,102) |
| $17.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.15 | 23/50 | $5,175 | $8,739 | 87% | 89% | +$3,432 | -$4,235 | 13.6% | $-8,643 (vs do-nothing $-345) |
| $17 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 14/50 | $5,250 | $10,164 | 77% | 83% | +$2,802 | -$3,138 | 10.0% | $-9,068 (vs do-nothing $-770) |
| $17.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 37/50 | $5,057 | $6,520 | 75% | 80% | +$1,818 | -$5,850 | 18.7% | $-7,891 (vs do-nothing +$407) |
| $17.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 43/50 | $5,160 | $5,724 | 71% | 78% | +$1,553 | -$5,810 | 18.6% | $-6,836 (vs do-nothing +$1,462) |
| $17 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.56 | 28/50 | $5,227 | $8,040 | 68% | 76% | +$1,601 | -$5,407 | 17.3% | $-8,970 (vs do-nothing $-672) |
| $17 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 34/50 | $5,100 | $7,014 | 65% | 74% | +$1,281 | -$5,750 | 18.4% | $-8,298 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $16.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 9/50 | $5,535 | $11,199 | 63% | 76% | +$2,194 | -$2,323 | 7.4% | $-9,099 (vs do-nothing $-801) |
| $16.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 21/50 | $5,180 | $9,044 | 59% | 72% | +$1,255 | -$4,727 | 15.1% | $-9,474 (vs do-nothing $-1,176) |
| $16.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 27/50 | $5,062 | $8,026 | 58% | 71% | +$1,060 | -$5,376 | 17.2% | $-9,108 (vs do-nothing $-810) |
| $16 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.23 | 22/50 | $5,074 | $8,787 | 51% | 68% | +$845 | -$4,974 | 15.9% | $-9,552 (vs do-nothing $-1,254) |
| $16 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.97 | 16/50 | $5,173 | $9,787 | 50% | 67% | +$976 | -$4,034 | 12.9% | $-9,626 (vs do-nothing $-1,328) |
| $16 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 6/50 | $5,760 | $11,874 | 46% | 68% | +$1,514 | -$1,711 | 5.5% | $-8,994 (vs do-nothing $-696) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.