BMNR @ $16.84 UNDERWATER $0.29 (1.7% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
BMNR reports 2026-07-16 (Thu), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (16d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-16.
50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.59 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $13.315/sh)
SP: $18 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.355/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2026-08-21 (entry $0.258/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,469/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $486/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-15,550 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$4,734/mo
HEDGE COVER
$486/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$9,469/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
3.3 mo to earn back $31,250
ML VELOCITY
7.5 mo to earn back $71,250
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $19.59 (probe: $19.5C 16d) still earns $2,812/mo (30% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 33 (live) · RSI 42 · MACD bullish, hist rising
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 57 · %B 95 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $24.26 (+44%) · daily UBB $17.07 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-16: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $19.59 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $20 31 Jul 2026 (16d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $20)
86%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 16); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.44/sh now → $1.02 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 50 × $21 31 Jul 2026 (16d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $21)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 16); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.51/sh now → $1.07 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 50 × $20.50 24 Jul 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $20.50)
93%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.13/sh now → $0.80 mid-life (likely $0.61–$1.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 268 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $21 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$20 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.14/sh | +$676 cycle +$976 [+$497…+$1,626] · 93% credit | 66% surv 53% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$21 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.13/sh | +$644 cycle +$944 [+$472…+$1,552] · 93% credit | 68% surv 55% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.13/sh | +$644 cycle +$944 [+$472…+$1,552] · 93% credit | 68% surv 55% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (11 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.146 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$15,754 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-7,718
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $18 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.14 | 23/50 | $4,830 | $9,457 | 82% | 84% | +$1,632 | -$3,345 | 10.7% | $-7,419 (vs do-nothing +$299) |
| $18.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.29 | 49/50 | $4,737 | $4,440 | 78% | 82% | +$1,011 | -$3,942 | 12.6% | $-3,896 (vs do-nothing +$3,822) |
| $18.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.55 | 46/50 | $4,744 | $5,015 | 74% | 79% | +$1,245 | -$2,504 | 8.0% | $-2,934 (vs do-nothing +$4,784) |
| $18 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 35/50 | $4,783 | $7,137 | 71% | 77% | +$876 | -$4,146 | 13.3% | $-6,318 (vs do-nothing +$1,400) |
| $17.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 13/50 | $4,875 | $11,395 | 71% | 77% | +$1,228 | -$2,398 | 7.7% | $-8,056 (vs do-nothing $-338) |
| $18 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 38/50 | $4,774 | $6,560 | 68% | 76% | +$971 | -$3,513 | 11.2% | $-5,210 (vs do-nothing +$2,508) |
| $17.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 27/50 | $4,860 | $8,729 | 64% | 73% | +$515 | -$4,197 | 13.4% | $-7,637 (vs do-nothing +$81) |
| $17.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.81 | 32/50 | $4,860 | $7,782 | 62% | 72% | +$683 | -$4,110 | 13.2% | $-6,758 (vs do-nothing +$960) |
| $17 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 9/50 | $5,265 | $12,543 | 56% | 69% | +$461 | -$1,984 | 6.3% | $-8,276 (vs do-nothing $-558) |
| $17 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.01 | 25/50 | $4,734 | $8,982 | 56% | 69% | +$523 | -$3,961 | 12.7% | $-7,718 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $17 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 20/50 | $4,933 | $10,128 | 55% | 69% | +$401 | -$3,709 | 11.9% | $-8,258 (vs do-nothing $-540) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.