50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.32 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,500/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $417/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-19,950 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 37 × $17 | 75% | $4,856 | $1,335 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $19.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 23.3% | 95% | 10% | $114 | $427 | -$4,429 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $19.50 23.3% OTM over spot $15.81 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.07 mid) = $114 credit for the 8d cycle → $427/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19.50) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $19.57) 95% EV / mo +$261 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.4-2.1] median · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 82% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,467 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,273 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $20 @ 73% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.03/sh now → $0.73 mid-life (likely $0.55–$1.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 125 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $20 (overshoots $0.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $19.50 is at/above CC-SS $19.32: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $19.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,950 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,117 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $19.50): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (31 × $17): -$5,356 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,189 (+$14,761 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,472 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$3,283, the opportunity cost of earning $427/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $18.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 17.0% | 90% | 20% | $650 | $2,438 | -$2,419 | $3,439 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $18.50 17.0% OTM over spot $15.81 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.14 mid) = $650 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,438/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $18.64) 91% EV / mo +$1,323 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.5-2.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 73% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 86% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,113 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,814 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.98/sh now → $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.53–$0.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 345 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $19 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $1 below CC-SS $19.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $18.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,950 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,117 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $18.50): -$3,439 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,272 (+$16,678 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,472 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$5,200, the opportunity cost of earning $2,438/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 47 × $18 | 24 Jul | 8d | 13.9% | 87% | 28% | $846 | $3,172 | -$1,684 | $5,347 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 47 × $18 13.9% OTM over spot $15.81 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.19 mid) = $846 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,172/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $18.19) 88% EV / mo +$1,506 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.4-2.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~2.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,396 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,322 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 47 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.95/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.62–$0.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 566 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $18 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $1 below CC-SS $19.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $18.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,950 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,117 − CC assignment net of premium (47 × $18): -$5,347 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $17): -$518 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,699 (+$14,251 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,472 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$2,773, the opportunity cost of earning $3,172/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 37 × $17 | 24 Jul | 8d | 7.5% | 75% | 40% | $1,295 | $4,856 | — | $7,281 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $17 7.5% OTM over spot $15.81 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.37 mid) = $1,295 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,856/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $17.37) 80% EV / mo +$1,587 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.5-3.0] median · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 84% without) · ~6.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,164 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,060 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.90/sh now → $0.64 mid-life (likely $0.69–$1.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,196 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $17 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $2 below CC-SS $19.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $17.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,950 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,117 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $17): -$7,281 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $17): -$2,246 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,360 (+$10,590 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,472 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-888, the opportunity cost of earning $4,856/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 49 × $16.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 4.4% | 66% | 70% | $2,548 | $9,555 | +$4,699 | $11,259 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 49 × $16.50 4.4% OTM over spot $15.81 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.53 mid) = $2,548 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,555/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $17.03) 75% EV / mo +$2,854 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.6] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 86% without) · ~9.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,411 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 55% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$479 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $20 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 49 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.87/sh now → $0.62 mid-life (likely $0.78–$1.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,635 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $17 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $17.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,950 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,117 − CC assignment net of premium (49 × $16.50): -$11,259 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $17): -$173 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,265 (+$8,685 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,472 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,793, the opportunity cost of earning $9,555/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.147 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$20,117 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-8,472
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 37/50 | $4,856 | $5,974 | 75% | 80% | +$1,587 | -$7,281 | 23.3% | $-9,360 (vs do-nothing $-888) |
| $17 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 41/50 | $4,838 | $5,483 | 70% | 77% | +$1,245 | -$7,084 | 22.7% | $-8,472 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $16.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 25/50 | $4,875 | $7,408 | 66% | 75% | +$1,456 | -$5,744 | 18.4% | $-9,897 (vs do-nothing $-1,425) |
| $16.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 32/50 | $4,800 | $6,507 | 63% | 74% | +$1,037 | -$6,617 | 21.2% | $-9,560 (vs do-nothing $-1,088) |
| $16 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.70 | 19/50 | $4,988 | $8,229 | 56% | 70% | +$1,072 | -$4,974 | 15.9% | $-10,163 (vs do-nothing $-1,691) |
| $16 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 25/50 | $4,750 | $7,283 | 56% | 70% | +$849 | -$5,919 | 18.9% | $-10,072 (vs do-nothing $-1,600) |
| $15.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.20 | 20/50 | $4,800 | $7,923 | 48% | 67% | +$721 | -$5,235 | 16.8% | $-10,252 (vs do-nothing $-1,780) |
| $15.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 14/50 | $4,988 | $8,819 | 46% | 66% | +$796 | -$4,015 | 12.8% | $-10,068 (vs do-nothing $-1,596) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.