FORTRESS FIGHT: BMNR @ $19.80

BE SS: $45.53 | CC-SS: $20.83 | 250 contracts (25,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

BMNRMAX 62 @ $19.80 UNDERWATER $25.73 (56.5% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

BMNR reports 2026-11-20 (Fri), in 18 days. The recommended CC (4d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-11-20.

250 contracts (25,000 sh) | BE SS: $45.53 | CC-SS: $20.83 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $40 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $5.535/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$138,250	(ND $5.53 + SW $0) x 25000
Normal income ref	$72,955/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-12,000	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$36,477/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$72,955/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.9 mo to earn back $138,250

ML VELOCITY
1.9 mo to earn back $138,250

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $20.83 (probe: $21C 11d) still earns $45,682/mo (63% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 45 (live) · RSI 45 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 35 · %B 5 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $29.24 (+48%) · daily UBB $25.17 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-20: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $20.83 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 250 × $21.50 6 Nov 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $21.50)

80%

Touch odds

41%

Per cycle

$6,250

Income / mo

$46,875

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.98/sh now → $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.74–$1.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 849 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $22 (overshoots $0.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (250 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$22	13 Nov 2026	9d left	+$0.42/sh	+$10,411 cycle +$16,661 [+$7,451…+$12,818] · 99% credit	67% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$23	27 Nov 2026	23d left	+$0.42/sh	+$10,506 cycle +$16,756 [+$5,126…+$11,940] · 90% credit	74% surv 65%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$22	13 Nov 2026	9d left	+$0.09/sh	+$2,327 cycle +$8,577 [-$2,233…+$3,370] · 48% credit	72% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$24	27 Nov 2026	23d left	+$0.12/sh	+$2,949 cycle +$9,199 [-$4,076…+$3,398] · 43% credit	78% surv 73%
SS $46 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$25	27 Nov 2026	23d left	-$0.13/sh	-$3,315 cycle +$2,935 [-$11,984…-$3,446] · 11% credit	83% surv 80%
budget: banked $6,250 debit $3,315 (53% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,935 cash · rolled 250 ct earn ≈ $18,200/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 250 × $22.50 6 Nov 2026 (4d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $22.50)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$2,750

Income / mo

$20,625

Buyback gross: $1.02/sh now → $0.72 mid-life (likely $0.71–$1.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 396 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $23 (overshoots $0.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (250 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$22	13 Nov 2026	9d left	+$0.41/sh	+$10,185 cycle +$12,935 [+$7,787…+$13,437] · 98% credit	67% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$24	27 Nov 2026	23d left	+$0.42/sh	+$10,385 cycle +$13,135 [+$5,485…+$13,393] · 88% credit	73% surv 65%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$23	13 Nov 2026	9d left	+$0.08/sh	+$2,050 cycle +$4,800 [-$2,087…+$4,442] · 58% credit	72% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$25	27 Nov 2026	23d left	+$0.11/sh	+$2,747 cycle +$5,497 [-$3,981…+$5,121] · 55% credit	78% surv 73%
SS $46 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$25	20 Nov 2026	16d left	-$0.08/sh	-$1,986 cycle +$764 [-$9,614…-$59] · 24% credit	79% surv 74%
budget: banked $2,750 debit $1,986 (72% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$764 cash · rolled 250 ct earn ≈ $30,159/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 250 × $40 20 Nov 2026 (18d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $40)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$250

Income / mo

$417

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (250 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$40	27 Nov 2026	16d left	-$1.00/sh	-$25,033 cycle -$24,783	66% surv 52%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (14 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.502 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$12,967 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,217

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$21.50	4d	6 Nov 2026	$0.25	250/250	$6,250	$46,875	$46,875	80%hist 86%	41%hist 40%	83%	+$14,990	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$7,217 (vs do-nothing +$6,000)
$21	4d	6 Nov 2026	$0.37	250/250	$9,250	$69,375	$69,375	73%hist 83%	55%hist 45%	79%	+$18,709	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$10,217 (vs do-nothing +$9,000)
$21	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.67	250/250	$16,750	$45,682	$45,682	68%hist 66%	67%hist 55%	76%	+$10,145	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$17,717 (vs do-nothing +$16,500)
$21	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.96	250/250	$24,000	$40,000	$40,000	66%hist 66%	73%hist 67%	75%	+$8,344	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$24,967 (vs do-nothing +$23,750)
$20.50	4d	6 Nov 2026	$0.52	250/250	$13,000	$97,500	$97,500	65%hist 66%	73%hist 67%	74%	+$19,278	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,636 (vs do-nothing +$4,419)
$20.50	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.85	250/250	$21,250	$57,955	$57,955	62%hist 66%	80%hist 67%	73%	+$10,590	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$13,886 (vs do-nothing +$12,669)
$20.50	18d	20 Nov 2026	$1.15	250/250	$28,750	$47,917	$47,917	61%hist 66%	84%hist 79%	72%	+$8,690	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$21,386 (vs do-nothing +$20,169)
$20	25d	27 Nov 2026	$1.53	250/250	$38,250	$45,900	$45,900	56%hist 69%	96%hist 89%	70%	+$6,755	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$18,386 (vs do-nothing +$17,169)
$20	4d	6 Nov 2026	$0.72	250/250	$18,000	$135,000	$135,000	56%hist 69%	92%hist 89%	69%	+$18,974	-$2,831	2.0%	0.0mo	$-1,864 (vs do-nothing $-3,081)
$20	18d	20 Nov 2026	$1.36	250/250	$34,000	$56,667	$56,667	56%hist 69%	95%hist 89%	70%	+$8,535	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$14,136 (vs do-nothing +$12,919)
$20	11d	13 Nov 2026	$1.07	250/250	$26,750	$72,955	$72,955	56%hist 69%	94%hist 89%	69%	+$11,024	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$6,886 (vs do-nothing +$5,669)
$19.50	18d	20 Nov 2026	$1.61	250/250	$40,250	$67,083	$67,083	50%hist 69%	100%hist 89%	67%	+$8,661	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$7,886 (vs do-nothing +$6,669)
$19.50	11d	13 Nov 2026	$1.33	250/250	$33,250	$90,682	$90,682	49%	100%hist 89%	66%	+$11,366	-$81	0.1%	0.0mo	$886 (vs do-nothing $-331)

Show 1 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$19.50	4d	6 Nov 2026	$0.99	250/250	$24,750	$185,625	$185,625	47%	100%hist 89%	65%	+$20,979	-$8,581	6.2%	0.1mo	$-7,614 (vs do-nothing $-8,831)

66 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS	Why not eligible
$40	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	250/250	$250	$417	$417	99+%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	100%	+$340	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,217 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$38	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	250/250	$250	$417	$417	99+%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	100%	+$295	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,217 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$37	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	250/250	$500	$833	$833	99%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	99%	+$682	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,467 (vs do-nothing +$250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$31	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	250/250	$250	$682	$682	99%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	99%	+$540	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,217 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$35	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.01	250/250	$250	$300	$300	99%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	99%	+$205	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,217 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$36	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	250/250	$500	$833	$833	99%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	99%	+$646	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,467 (vs do-nothing +$250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$34	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.02	250/250	$500	$600	$600	99%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	99%	+$467	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,467 (vs do-nothing +$250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$35	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	250/250	$500	$833	$833	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$603	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,467 (vs do-nothing +$250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27	4d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	250/250	$250	$1,875	$1,875	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$1,442	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,217 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	250/250	$250	$682	$682	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$401	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,217 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$34	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	250/250	$250	$417	$417	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$132	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,217 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29.50	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	250/250	$250	$682	$682	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$310	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,217 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$33	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	250/250	$500	$833	$833	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$480	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,467 (vs do-nothing +$250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.02	250/250	$500	$1,364	$1,364	99%hist 96%	3%hist 3%	99%	+$886	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,467 (vs do-nothing +$250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$32	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	250/250	$250	$417	$417	99%hist 96%	3%hist 3%	99%	$-27	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,217 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28.50	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.02	250/250	$500	$1,364	$1,364	98%hist 96%	3%hist 3%	98%	+$762	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,467 (vs do-nothing +$250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$31	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.04	250/250	$1,000	$1,200	$1,200	98%hist 96%	3%hist 3%	98%	+$801	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,967 (vs do-nothing +$750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$31	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.04	250/250	$1,000	$1,667	$1,667	98%hist 96%	3%hist 3%	98%	+$1,099	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,967 (vs do-nothing +$750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.03	250/250	$750	$2,045	$2,045	98%hist 96%	4%hist 3%	98%	+$1,298	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,717 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25.50	4d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	250/250	$250	$1,875	$1,875	98%hist 96%	4%hist 3%	98%	+$457	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,217 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.05	250/250	$1,250	$2,083	$2,083	98%hist 96%	4%hist 3%	98%	+$1,339	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,217 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.01	250/250	$250	$300	$300	98%hist 96%	5%hist 3%	98%	$-294	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,217 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25	4d	6 Nov 2026	$0.02	250/250	$500	$3,750	$3,750	98%hist 96%	5%hist 3%	98%	+$1,895	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,467 (vs do-nothing +$250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.03	250/250	$750	$2,045	$2,045	97%hist 96%	5%hist 3%	97%	+$905	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,717 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.05	250/250	$1,250	$2,083	$2,083	97%hist 96%	6%hist 3%	97%	+$1,078	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,217 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.08	250/250	$2,000	$2,400	$2,400	97%hist 96%	6%hist 3%	97%	+$1,504	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,967 (vs do-nothing +$1,750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24.50	4d	6 Nov 2026	$0.03	250/250	$750	$5,625	$5,625	97%hist 96%	6%hist 3%	97%	+$3,205	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,717 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28.50	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.05	250/250	$1,250	$2,083	$2,083	97%hist 96%	6%hist 3%	97%	+$899	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,217 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26.50	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.04	250/250	$1,000	$2,727	$2,727	97%hist 96%	6%hist 3%	97%	+$1,310	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,967 (vs do-nothing +$750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.08	250/250	$2,000	$3,333	$3,333	96%hist 96%	7%hist 3%	97%	+$1,925	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,967 (vs do-nothing +$1,750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.06	250/250	$1,500	$4,091	$4,091	96%hist 96%	8%hist 3%	96%	+$2,309	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,467 (vs do-nothing +$1,250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24	4d	6 Nov 2026	$0.03	250/250	$750	$5,625	$5,625	96%hist 96%	8%hist 3%	96%	+$2,367	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,717 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27.50	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.08	250/250	$2,000	$3,333	$3,333	96%hist 96%	9%hist 3%	96%	+$1,642	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,967 (vs do-nothing +$1,750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.11	250/250	$2,750	$3,300	$3,300	96%hist 96%	9%hist 3%	96%	+$1,932	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$3,717 (vs do-nothing +$2,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25.50	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.07	250/250	$1,750	$4,773	$4,773	95%hist 96%	9%hist 3%	96%	+$2,497	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,717 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.10	250/250	$2,500	$4,167	$4,167	95%hist 96%	10%hist 3%	95%	+$2,115	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$3,467 (vs do-nothing +$2,250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$23.50	4d	6 Nov 2026	$0.05	250/250	$1,250	$9,375	$9,375	95%hist 96%	11%hist 13%	95%	+$4,678	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,217 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.09	250/250	$2,250	$6,136	$6,136	94%hist 96%	12%hist 13%	95%	+$3,177	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$3,217 (vs do-nothing +$2,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26.50	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.11	250/250	$2,750	$4,583	$4,583	94%hist 96%	12%hist 13%	95%	+$2,038	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$3,717 (vs do-nothing +$2,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.14	250/250	$3,500	$4,200	$4,200	94%hist 96%	12%hist 13%	95%	+$2,091	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,467 (vs do-nothing +$3,250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.15	250/250	$3,750	$6,250	$6,250	93%hist 96%	14%hist 13%	94%	+$3,110	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,717 (vs do-nothing +$3,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24.50	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.10	250/250	$2,500	$6,818	$6,818	93%hist 96%	14%hist 13%	94%	+$2,895	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$3,467 (vs do-nothing +$2,250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$23	4d	6 Nov 2026	$0.08	250/250	$2,000	$15,000	$15,000	93%hist 96%	15%hist 13%	93%	+$7,662	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,967 (vs do-nothing +$1,750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25.50	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.15	250/250	$3,750	$6,250	$6,250	92%hist 96%	16%hist 13%	93%	+$2,345	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,717 (vs do-nothing +$3,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.21	250/250	$5,250	$6,300	$6,300	92%hist 96%	17%hist 13%	93%	+$3,029	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$6,217 (vs do-nothing +$5,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.14	250/250	$3,500	$9,545	$9,545	91%hist 96%	18%hist 13%	92%	+$4,252	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,467 (vs do-nothing +$3,250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.20	250/250	$5,000	$8,333	$8,333	91%hist 96%	19%hist 13%	91%	+$3,443	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,967 (vs do-nothing +$4,750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$22.50	4d	6 Nov 2026	$0.11	250/250	$2,750	$20,625	$20,625	90%hist 86%	21%hist 22%	91%	+$8,605	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$3,717 (vs do-nothing +$2,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$23.50	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.18	250/250	$4,500	$12,273	$12,273	89%hist 86%	22%hist 22%	90%	+$5,033	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,467 (vs do-nothing +$4,250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24.50	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.24	250/250	$6,000	$10,000	$10,000	89%hist 86%	23%hist 22%	90%	+$3,840	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$6,967 (vs do-nothing +$5,750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.29	250/250	$7,250	$8,700	$8,700	89%hist 86%	23%hist 22%	90%	+$3,614	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$8,217 (vs do-nothing +$7,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.30	250/250	$7,500	$12,500	$12,500	87%hist 86%	27%hist 22%	88%	+$4,706	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$8,467 (vs do-nothing +$7,250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$23	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.23	250/250	$5,750	$15,682	$15,682	86%hist 86%	28%hist 22%	88%	+$5,692	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$6,717 (vs do-nothing +$5,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$22	4d	6 Nov 2026	$0.18	250/250	$4,500	$33,750	$33,750	86%hist 86%	29%hist 22%	87%	+$14,029	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,467 (vs do-nothing +$4,250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.42	250/250	$10,500	$12,600	$12,600	85%hist 86%	32%hist 31%	87%	+$4,715	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$11,467 (vs do-nothing +$10,250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$23.50	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.36	250/250	$9,000	$15,000	$15,000	85%hist 86%	32%hist 31%	87%	+$5,114	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$9,967 (vs do-nothing +$8,750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$22.50	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.31	250/250	$7,750	$21,136	$21,136	83%hist 86%	36%hist 31%	85%	+$7,302	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$8,717 (vs do-nothing +$7,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$23	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.45	250/250	$11,250	$18,750	$18,750	82%hist 86%	39%hist 31%	85%	+$6,198	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$12,217 (vs do-nothing +$11,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$23	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.57	250/250	$14,250	$17,100	$17,100	80%hist 83%	43%hist 40%	83%	+$4,981	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$15,217 (vs do-nothing +$14,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$22	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.40	250/250	$10,000	$27,273	$27,273	79%hist 83%	44%hist 40%	82%	+$8,152	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$10,967 (vs do-nothing +$9,750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$22.50	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.52	250/250	$13,000	$21,667	$21,667	78%hist 83%	46%hist 40%	82%	+$5,746	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$13,967 (vs do-nothing +$12,750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$22	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.65	250/250	$16,250	$27,083	$27,083	75%hist 83%	54%hist 45%	80%	+$6,951	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$17,217 (vs do-nothing +$16,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$21.50	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.53	250/250	$13,250	$36,136	$36,136	74%hist 83%	55%hist 45%	79%	+$9,907	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$14,217 (vs do-nothing +$13,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$22	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.82	250/250	$20,500	$24,600	$24,600	73%hist 83%	58%hist 45%	79%	+$6,255	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$21,467 (vs do-nothing +$20,250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$21.50	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.78	250/250	$19,500	$32,500	$32,500	71%hist 83%	63%hist 55%	77%	+$7,169	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$20,467 (vs do-nothing +$19,250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$21	25d	27 Nov 2026	$1.12	250/250	$28,000	$33,600	$33,600	65%hist 66%	75%hist 67%	74%	+$6,430	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$28,967 (vs do-nothing +$27,750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 250 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-11-03 04:10