25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $18.21 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $3,473/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $463/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-12,713 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 14 Aug 2026 · 2d | 24 × $13.50 | 92% | $1,800 | $1,505 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 21 Aug 2026 · 9d | 25 × $13.50 | 77% | $1,750 | $-482 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 16 × $13.50 | 14 Aug | 2d | 11.9% | 92%hist 97% | 15%hist 9% | +5pp | $80 | $1,200 | -$600 | $7,452 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $13.50 11.9% OTM over spot $12.06 14 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.07 mid) = $80 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $13.56) 93% EV / mo +$759 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $812/mo median; plan ~$552/mo after 68% keep · $4,579 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.2-4.3], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$491 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026) $16 @ 79% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.50/sh now → $0.36 mid-life (likely $0.39–$0.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 246 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $13.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,713 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,143 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $13.50): -$7,452 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $18): -$169 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,190 (+$4,522 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,038 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,152, the opportunity cost of earning $1,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,728, position total $-8,281 (+$4,432 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 24 × $13.50 | 14 Aug | 2d | 11.9% | 92%hist 97% | 15%hist 9% | +9pp | $120 | $1,800 | — | $11,178 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $13.50 11.9% OTM over spot $12.06 14 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.07 mid) = $120 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $13.56) 93% EV / mo +$1,138 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,202/mo median; plan ~$817/mo after 68% keep · $6,349 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.2-4.5], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$737 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026) $16 @ 79% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.50/sh now → $0.36 mid-life (likely $0.38–$0.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 245 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $13.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,713 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,143 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $13.50): -$11,178 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $18): -$19 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,766 (+$946 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,038 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,728, the opportunity cost of earning $1,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,592, position total $-11,857 (+$856 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $13.50 | 14 Aug | 2d | 11.9% | 92%hist 97% | 15%hist 9% | +11pp | $125 | $1,875 | +$75 | $11,644 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $13.50 11.9% OTM over spot $12.06 14 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.07 mid) = $125 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,875/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $13.56) 93% EV / mo +$1,185 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,283/mo median; plan ~$873/mo after 68% keep · $6,297 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.2-4.7], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$768 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026) $16 @ 79% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.50/sh now → $0.36 mid-life (likely $0.34–$0.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 254 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $13.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,713 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,143 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $13.50): -$11,644 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,213 (+$499 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,038 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,175, the opportunity cost of earning $1,875/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,075, position total $-12,304 (+$409 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 24 × $13 | 14 Aug | 2d | 7.8% | 83%hist 87% | 36%hist 28% | +17pp | $240 | $3,600 | +$1,800 | $12,258 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $13 7.8% OTM over spot $12.06 14 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.12 mid) = $240 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $13.12) 85% EV / mo +$1,162 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +17pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,858/mo median; plan ~$1,263/mo after 68% keep · $8,442 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.2-4.0], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$570 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026) $15 @ 80% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.48/sh now → $0.34 mid-life (likely $0.37–$0.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 608 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $13 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $5 below CC-SS $18.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $13.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,713 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,143 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $13): -$12,258 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $18): -$19 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,846 ($-134 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,038 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,808, the opportunity cost of earning $3,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,672, position total $-12,937 ($-224 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $15 | 21 Aug | 9d | 24.4% | 91%hist 97% | 18%hist 9% | +2pp | $150 | $500 | -$1,250 | $7,869 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $15 24.4% OTM over spot $12.06 21 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.07 mid) = $150 credit for the 9d cycle → $500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $15.07) 92% EV / mo +$19 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $296/mo median; plan ~$202/mo after 68% keep · $1,837 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.5-4.0], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,648 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026) $15 @ 67% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.02/sh now → $0.72 mid-life (likely $0.56–$1.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 372 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $15 (overshoots $0.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $18.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $15.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,713 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,143 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15): -$7,869 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,438 (+$4,274 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,038 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,400, the opportunity cost of earning $500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,300, position total $-8,529 (+$4,184 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 25 × $14 | 21 Aug | 9d | 16.1% | 83%hist 87% | 36%hist 28% | +4pp | $350 | $1,167 | -$583 | $10,169 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $14 16.1% OTM over spot $12.06 21 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.17 mid) = $350 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,167/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $14.17) 85% EV / mo $-87 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $553/mo median; plan ~$376/mo after 68% keep · $3,309 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.2-3.9], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,271 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026) $14 @ 67% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.92/sh now → $0.65 mid-life (likely $0.61–$0.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 806 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $14 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $14.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,713 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,143 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $14): -$10,169 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,738 (+$1,974 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,038 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,700, the opportunity cost of earning $1,167/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,600, position total $-10,829 (+$1,884 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 25 × $13.50 | 21 Aug | 9d | 11.9% | 77%hist 86% | 48%hist 37% | +5pp | $525 | $1,750 | — | $11,244 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $13.50 11.9% OTM over spot $12.06 21 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.23 mid) = $525 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $13.73) 80% EV / mo $-195 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $710/mo median; plan ~$482/mo after 68% keep · $4,408 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.3-4.1], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,010 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $14 @ 72% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.87/sh now → $0.61 mid-life (likely $0.65–$1.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,154 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $14 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $13.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,713 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,143 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $13.50): -$11,244 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,813 (+$899 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,038 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,775, the opportunity cost of earning $1,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,675, position total $-11,904 (+$809 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 25 × $12.50 | 21 Aug | 9d | 3.7% | 62%hist 71% | 82%hist 79% | +9pp | $1,050 | $3,500 | +$1,750 | $13,219 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $12.50 3.7% OTM over spot $12.06 21 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.48 mid) = $1,050 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $12.98) 70% EV / mo $-787 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,016/mo median; plan ~$691/mo after 68% keep · $6,140 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.3-4.8], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$321 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026) $15 @ 82% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.73–$1.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,993 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $13 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $6 below CC-SS $18.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $12.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,713 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,143 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $12.50): -$13,219 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,788 ($-1,076 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,038 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,750, the opportunity cost of earning $3,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,650, position total $-13,879 ($-1,166 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.790 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$12,143 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,038
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 2d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.05 | 24/25 | $1,800 | $1,804 | 92% | 93% | +$1,138 | -$11,178 | 119.6% | $-11,766 (vs do-nothing $-10,728) |
| $13 | 2d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.10 | 12/25 | $1,800 | $1,849 | 83% | 85% | +$581 | -$6,129 | 65.6% | $-6,942 (vs do-nothing $-5,904) |
| $13.50 | 9d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.21 | 25/25 | $1,750 | $1,750 | 77% | 80% | $-195 | -$11,244 | 120.3% | $-11,813 (vs do-nothing $-10,775) |
| $13 | 9d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.31 | 17/25 | $1,757 | $1,787 | 70% | 75% | $-237 | -$8,326 | 89.0% | $-9,045 (vs do-nothing $-8,007) |
| $12.50 | 2d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.20 | 6/25 | $1,800 | $1,871 | 68% | 76% | +$312 | -$3,305 | 35.3% | $-4,230 (vs do-nothing $-3,192) |
| $13 | 16d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.44 | 22/25 | $1,815 | $1,826 | 67% | 73% | $-539 | -$10,489 | 112.2% | $-11,114 (vs do-nothing $-10,076) |
| $12.50 | 9d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.42 | 13/25 | $1,820 | $1,865 | 62% | 70% | $-409 | -$6,874 | 73.5% | $-7,668 (vs do-nothing $-6,630) |
| $12.50 | 23d | 4 Sep 2026 | $0.62 | 22/25 | $1,779 | $1,790 | 61% | 69% | $-895 | -$11,193 | 119.7% | $-11,818 (vs do-nothing $-10,780) |
| $12 | 23d | 4 Sep 2026 | $0.85 | 16/25 | $1,774 | $1,808 | 55% | 68% | $-617 | -$8,572 | 91.7% | $-9,310 (vs do-nothing $-8,272) |
| $12 | 16d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.80 | 12/25 | $1,800 | $1,849 | 54% | 66% | $-362 | -$6,489 | 69.4% | $-7,302 (vs do-nothing $-6,264) |
| $12 | 9d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.62 | 9/25 | $1,860 | $1,920 | 52% | 65% | $-326 | -$5,029 | 53.8% | $-5,898 (vs do-nothing $-4,860) |
| $12 | 2d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.37 | 4/25 | $2,220 | $2,299 | 49% | 66% | +$89 | -$2,335 | 25.0% | $-3,298 (vs do-nothing $-2,260) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.