25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.58 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $4,289/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $487/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,850 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 24 × $14.50 | 95% | $2,160 | $1,126 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 18 × $14 | 75% | $2,160 | $464 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 17 × $15.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 21.7% | 99% | 3% | $34 | $510 | -$1,650 | $3,494 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $15.50 21.7% OTM over spot $12.73 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.03 mid) = $34 credit for the 2d cycle → $510/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $15.53) 99% EV / mo +$465 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.0] median · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~0.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,275 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$783 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $18 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.68/sh now → $0.48 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $15.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,850 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $15.50): -$3,494 + Conservative CC premium (8 × $20): +$24 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,470 (+$6,380 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $75 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,545, the opportunity cost of earning $510/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,491, position total $-3,076 (+$6,774 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 16 × $14.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 13.9% | 95% | 11% | $96 | $1,440 | -$720 | $4,824 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $14.50 13.9% OTM over spot $12.73 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.07 mid) = $96 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,440/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $14.56) 95% EV / mo +$1,147 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-2.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~3.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $572 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$600 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $17 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.62/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 161 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $15 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $14.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,850 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $14.50): -$4,824 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $20): +$27 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,797 (+$5,053 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $75 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,872, the opportunity cost of earning $1,440/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,704, position total $-4,286 (+$5,564 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 24 × $14.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 13.9% | 95% | 7% | $144 | $2,160 | — | $7,237 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $14.50 13.9% OTM over spot $12.73 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.07 mid) = $144 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,160/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $14.56) 95% EV / mo +$1,721 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-3.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,357 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$900 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $17 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.62/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.43–$0.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 198 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $15 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $14.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,850 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $14.50): -$7,237 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $20): +$3 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,234 (+$2,616 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $75 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,309, the opportunity cost of earning $2,160/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,056, position total $-7,662 (+$2,188 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $14.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 13.9% | 95% | 11% | $150 | $2,250 | +$90 | $7,538 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $14.50 13.9% OTM over spot $12.73 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.07 mid) = $150 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $14.56) 95% EV / mo +$1,793 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.4] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~3.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,401 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$937 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $17 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.62/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.43–$0.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 159 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $15 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $14.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,850 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $14.50): -$7,538 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,538 (+$2,312 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $75 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,613, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,475, position total $-8,084 (+$1,766 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 13 × $13.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 6.0% | 78% | 46% | $286 | $4,290 | +$2,130 | $5,012 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 13 × $13.50 6.0% OTM over spot $12.73 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.23 mid) = $286 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,290/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $13.73) 83% EV / mo +$2,365 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.7-3.2] median · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~16.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,489 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$223 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $17 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.55/sh now → $0.39 mid-life (likely $0.46–$0.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 837 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $13.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,850 − CC assignment net of premium (13 × $13.50): -$5,012 + Conservative CC premium (12 × $20): +$36 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,976 (+$4,874 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $75 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,051, the opportunity cost of earning $4,290/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,539, position total $-4,112 (+$5,738 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 17 × $16 | 17 Jul | 9d | 25.6% | 93% | 15% | $153 | $510 | -$1,650 | $2,525 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $16 25.6% OTM over spot $12.73 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.10 mid) = $153 credit for the 9d cycle → $510/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $16.09) 93% EV / mo +$274 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.5] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~1.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-555 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,320 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $17 @ 72% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.22/sh now → $0.87 mid-life (likely $0.66–$1.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 251 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $16 (overshoots $0.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $2 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $16.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,850 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $16): -$2,525 + Conservative CC premium (8 × $20): +$24 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,501 (+$7,349 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $75 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,576, the opportunity cost of earning $510/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,522, position total $-2,107 (+$7,743 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $15.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 21.7% | 90% | 21% | $275 | $917 | -$1,243 | $4,913 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $15.50 21.7% OTM over spot $12.73 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.12 mid) = $275 credit for the 9d cycle → $917/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $15.62) 91% EV / mo +$338 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-2.8] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $86 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,787 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 72% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.17/sh now → $0.82 mid-life (likely $0.64–$1.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 404 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $16 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $15.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,850 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15.50): -$4,913 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,913 (+$4,937 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $75 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,988, the opportunity cost of earning $917/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,850, position total $-5,459 (+$4,391 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 25 × $15 | 17 Jul | 9d | 17.8% | 86% | 29% | $425 | $1,417 | -$743 | $6,013 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $15 17.8% OTM over spot $12.73 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.18 mid) = $425 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,417/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $15.19) 88% EV / mo +$478 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.5] median · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~3.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $709 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,535 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.11/sh now → $0.78 mid-life (likely $0.69–$1.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 580 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $15 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $15.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,850 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15): -$6,013 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,013 (+$3,837 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $75 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,088, the opportunity cost of earning $1,417/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,950, position total $-6,559 (+$3,291 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $14 | 17 Jul | 9d | 9.9% | 75% | 40% | $648 | $2,160 | — | $5,788 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $14 9.9% OTM over spot $12.73 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.38 mid) = $648 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,160/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $14.38) 79% EV / mo +$520 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.4] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~7.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,236 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$621 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.00/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.79–$1.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,203 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $14 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.36 collected) or spot ≥ $14.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,850 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $14): -$5,788 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $20): +$21 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,767 (+$4,083 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $75 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,842, the opportunity cost of earning $2,160/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,902, position total $-5,490 (+$4,360 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $13 | 17 Jul | 9d | 2.1% | 58% | 88% | $1,292 | $4,307 | +$2,147 | $7,401 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $13 2.1% OTM over spot $12.73 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.72 mid) = $1,292 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,307/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $13.71) 71% EV / mo +$835 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.7-3.7] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~18.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,798 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 71% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$95 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.89/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.86–$1.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,144 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $13 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $5 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $13.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,850 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $13): -$7,401 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $20): +$18 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,383 (+$2,467 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $75 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,458, the opportunity cost of earning $4,307/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,633, position total $-7,224 (+$2,626 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 13 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.814 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$9,850 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $75
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.06 | 24/25 | $2,160 | $1,679 | 95% | 95% | +$1,721 | -$7,237 | 77.4% | $-7,234 (vs do-nothing $-7,309) |
| $14 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.11 | 13/25 | $2,145 | $1,725 | 89% | 91% | +$1,448 | -$4,505 | 48.2% | $-4,469 (vs do-nothing $-4,544) |
| $13.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 7/25 | $2,310 | $1,924 | 78% | 83% | +$1,273 | -$2,699 | 28.9% | $-2,645 (vs do-nothing $-2,720) |
| $14 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.36 | 18/25 | $2,160 | $1,712 | 75% | 79% | +$520 | -$5,788 | 61.9% | $-5,767 (vs do-nothing $-5,842) |
| $14 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.55 | 21/25 | $2,166 | $1,701 | 71% | 77% | +$275 | -$6,353 | 67.9% | $-6,341 (vs do-nothing $-6,416) |
| $13.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.51 | 13/25 | $2,210 | $1,790 | 67% | 75% | +$445 | -$4,635 | 49.6% | $-4,599 (vs do-nothing $-4,674) |
| $13.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.72 | 16/25 | $2,160 | $1,724 | 65% | 73% | +$259 | -$5,368 | 57.4% | $-5,341 (vs do-nothing $-5,416) |
| $13 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 4/25 | $2,220 | $1,851 | 62% | 75% | +$799 | -$1,682 | 18.0% | $-1,619 (vs do-nothing $-1,694) |
| $13 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.68 | 10/25 | $2,267 | $1,864 | 58% | 71% | +$439 | -$3,895 | 41.7% | $-3,850 (vs do-nothing $-3,925) |
| $13 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 13/25 | $2,218 | $1,799 | 58% | 70% | +$211 | -$4,765 | 51.0% | $-4,729 (vs do-nothing $-4,804) |
| $12.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 10/25 | $2,156 | $1,754 | 51% | 67% | +$180 | -$3,925 | 42.0% | $-3,880 (vs do-nothing $-3,955) |
| $12.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 8/25 | $2,427 | $2,035 | 48% | 67% | +$327 | -$3,332 | 35.6% | $-3,281 (vs do-nothing $-3,356) |
| $12.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 3/25 | $2,790 | $2,427 | 43% | 66% | +$626 | -$1,337 | 14.3% | $-1,271 (vs do-nothing $-1,346) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.