25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.58 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $4,570/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $487/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-10,162 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 17 × $14 | 90% | $2,295 | $1,178 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 23 × $14 | 78% | $2,300 | $422 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 17 × $15.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 23.3% | 99% | 2% | $34 | $510 | -$1,785 | $3,504 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $15.50 23.3% OTM over spot $12.57 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.03 mid) = $34 credit for the 2d cycle → $510/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $15.53) 99% EV / mo +$468 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.8-3.5] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-3,699 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$822 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $18 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.71/sh now → $0.50 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $15.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,162 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,162 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $15.50): -$3,504 + Conservative CC premium (8 × $20): +$24 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,480 (+$6,683 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $75 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,555, the opportunity cost of earning $510/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,491, position total $-3,094 (+$7,068 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 21 × $14.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 15.3% | 95% | 10% | $105 | $1,575 | -$720 | $6,365 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $14.50 15.3% OTM over spot $12.57 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.07 mid) = $105 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,575/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $14.57) 96% EV / mo +$1,232 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.3] median · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $22 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$851 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $17 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.64/sh now → $0.46 mid-life (likely $0.44–$0.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 126 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $15 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $14.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,162 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,162 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $14.50): -$6,365 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $20): +$12 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,353 (+$3,809 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $75 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,428, the opportunity cost of earning $1,575/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,820, position total $-6,435 (+$3,727 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 17 × $14 | 10 Jul | 2d | 11.3% | 90% | 10% | $153 | $2,295 | — | $5,935 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $14 11.3% OTM over spot $12.57 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $153 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,295/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $14.11) 92% EV / mo +$1,545 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.8-3.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~6.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,857 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$582 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.61/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.46–$0.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 304 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $14.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,162 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,162 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $14): -$5,935 + Conservative CC premium (8 × $20): +$24 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,911 (+$4,252 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $75 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,986, the opportunity cost of earning $2,295/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,922, position total $-5,525 (+$4,637 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $14 | 10 Jul | 2d | 11.3% | 90% | 20% | $225 | $3,375 | +$1,080 | $8,728 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $14 11.3% OTM over spot $12.57 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $225 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $14.11) 92% EV / mo +$2,273 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-3.8] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~5.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,404 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$856 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.61/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.46–$0.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 280 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $14.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,162 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,162 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $14): -$8,728 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,728 (+$1,435 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $75 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,803, the opportunity cost of earning $3,375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,650, position total $-9,277 (+$885 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $13.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 7.4% | 81% | 38% | $320 | $4,800 | +$2,505 | $7,842 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $13.50 7.4% OTM over spot $12.57 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.18 mid) = $320 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $13.69) 85% EV / mo +$2,504 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.8-3.3] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~12.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,031 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$499 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.58/sh now → $0.41 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 684 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $13.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,162 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,162 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $13.50): -$7,842 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $20): +$15 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,827 (+$2,335 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $75 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,902, the opportunity cost of earning $4,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,180, position total $-7,792 (+$2,370 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 25 × $16.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 31.2% | 96% | 9% | $150 | $500 | -$1,800 | $2,553 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $16.50 31.2% OTM over spot $12.57 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.07 mid) = $150 credit for the 9d cycle → $500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $16.57) 96% EV / mo +$321 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.5] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-510 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,113 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $17 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.28/sh now → $0.91 mid-life (likely $0.62–$1.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 115 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $17 (overshoots $0.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $1 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $16.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,162 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,162 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $16.50): -$2,553 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,553 (+$7,610 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $75 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,628, the opportunity cost of earning $500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,475, position total $-3,102 (+$7,060 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $15.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 23.3% | 92% | 17% | $275 | $917 | -$1,383 | $4,928 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $15.50 23.3% OTM over spot $12.57 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.12 mid) = $275 credit for the 9d cycle → $917/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $15.62) 92% EV / mo +$481 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.0] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $210 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,776 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.16/sh now → $0.82 mid-life (likely $0.65–$1.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 312 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $16 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $15.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,162 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,162 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15.50): -$4,928 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,928 (+$5,235 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $75 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,003, the opportunity cost of earning $917/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,850, position total $-5,477 (+$4,685 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 15.3% | 84% | 34% | $460 | $1,533 | -$767 | $5,702 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $14.50 15.3% OTM over spot $12.57 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.24 mid) = $460 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,533/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $14.74) 86% EV / mo +$661 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.8] median · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~4.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,062 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,019 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.05/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.68–$1.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 725 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $15 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $14.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,162 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,162 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $14.50): -$5,702 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $20): +$15 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,687 (+$4,475 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $75 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,762, the opportunity cost of earning $1,533/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,040, position total $-5,652 (+$4,510 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 23 × $14 | 17 Jul | 9d | 11.3% | 78% | 35% | $690 | $2,300 | — | $7,547 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $14 11.3% OTM over spot $12.57 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.32 mid) = $690 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $14.32) 82% EV / mo +$728 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [1.0-3.7] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~6.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,976 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$921 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.99/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.74–$1.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,049 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $14 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $14.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,162 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,162 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $14): -$7,547 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $20): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,541 (+$2,622 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $75 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,616, the opportunity cost of earning $2,300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,235, position total $-7,856 (+$2,306 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 23 × $13 | 17 Jul | 9d | 3.4% | 62% | 81% | $1,403 | $4,677 | +$2,377 | $9,134 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $13 3.4% OTM over spot $12.57 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.63 mid) = $1,403 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,677/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $13.63) 73% EV / mo +$1,039 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~15.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,790 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$36 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.88/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.84–$1.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,939 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $13 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $5 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.61 collected) or spot ≥ $13.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,162 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,162 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $13): -$9,134 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $20): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,128 (+$1,035 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $75 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,203, the opportunity cost of earning $4,677/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,822, position total $-9,443 (+$719 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.812 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$10,162 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $75
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.09 | 17/25 | $2,295 | $1,853 | 90% | 92% | +$1,545 | -$5,935 | 63.5% | $-5,911 (vs do-nothing $-5,986) |
| $13.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.16 | 10/25 | $2,400 | $1,997 | 81% | 85% | +$1,252 | -$3,921 | 41.9% | $-3,876 (vs do-nothing $-3,951) |
| $14 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 23/25 | $2,300 | $1,824 | 78% | 82% | +$728 | -$7,547 | 80.7% | $-7,541 (vs do-nothing $-7,616) |
| $14 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 25/25 | $2,297 | $1,810 | 74% | 80% | +$657 | -$7,728 | 82.7% | $-7,728 (vs do-nothing $-7,803) |
| $13.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.42 | 17/25 | $2,380 | $1,938 | 70% | 77% | +$590 | -$6,224 | 66.6% | $-6,200 (vs do-nothing $-6,275) |
| $13.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 20/25 | $2,400 | $1,941 | 68% | 76% | +$591 | -$6,882 | 73.6% | $-6,867 (vs do-nothing $-6,942) |
| $13 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.27 | 6/25 | $2,430 | $2,050 | 67% | 77% | +$790 | -$2,587 | 27.7% | $-2,530 (vs do-nothing $-2,605) |
| $13 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 12/25 | $2,440 | $2,026 | 62% | 73% | +$542 | -$4,765 | 51.0% | $-4,726 (vs do-nothing $-4,801) |
| $13 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 15/25 | $2,334 | $1,904 | 61% | 72% | +$490 | -$5,627 | 60.2% | $-5,597 (vs do-nothing $-5,672) |
| $12.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 12/25 | $2,362 | $1,949 | 53% | 69% | +$391 | -$4,837 | 51.7% | $-4,798 (vs do-nothing $-4,873) |
| $12.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 9/25 | $2,400 | $2,003 | 52% | 68% | +$329 | -$3,853 | 41.2% | $-3,805 (vs do-nothing $-3,880) |
| $12.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.48 | 4/25 | $2,880 | $2,511 | 49% | 68% | +$582 | -$1,840 | 19.7% | $-1,777 (vs do-nothing $-1,852) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.