25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $16.78 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $3,656/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $474/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,850 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 16 × $14 | 92% | $1,920 | $806 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 25 × $14 | 80% | $1,833 | $-293 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 16 × $14.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 16.8% | 96% | 8% | $32 | $480 | -$1,440 | $3,617 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $14.50 16.8% OTM over spot $12.41 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.06 mid) = $32 credit for the 2d cycle → $480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $14.56) 96% EV / mo +$271 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-2.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~1.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-159 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$945 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 17 Jul 2026) $15 @ 73% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.86/sh now → $0.61 mid-life (likely $0.53–$1.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 97 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $15 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $2 below CC-SS $16.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $14.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,850 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $14.50): -$3,617 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $16): -$603 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,220 (+$4,630 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,676 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,544, the opportunity cost of earning $480/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,752, position total $-5,151 (+$3,699 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 11 × $14 | 10 Jul | 2d | 12.8% | 92% | 16% | $88 | $1,320 | -$600 | $2,970 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 11 × $14 12.8% OTM over spot $12.41 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $88 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $14.10) 93% EV / mo +$933 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.6-3.1] median · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~3.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $985 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$550 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 17 Jul 2026) $15 @ 73% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.82/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.62–$1.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 259 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $16.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $14.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,850 − CC assignment net of premium (11 × $14): -$2,970 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $16): -$939 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,909 (+$4,941 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,676 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,233, the opportunity cost of earning $1,320/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,126, position total $-4,840 (+$4,010 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 16 × $14 | 10 Jul | 2d | 12.8% | 92% | 8% | $128 | $1,920 | — | $4,321 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $14 12.8% OTM over spot $12.41 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $128 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,920/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $14.10) 93% EV / mo +$1,357 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~3.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,370 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$800 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 17 Jul 2026) $15 @ 73% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.82/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.60–$1.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 240 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $16.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $14.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,850 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $14): -$4,321 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $16): -$603 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,924 (+$3,926 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,676 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,248, the opportunity cost of earning $1,920/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,456, position total $-5,855 (+$2,995 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $14 | 10 Jul | 2d | 12.8% | 92% | 16% | $200 | $3,000 | +$1,080 | $6,751 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $14 12.8% OTM over spot $12.41 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $200 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $14.10) 93% EV / mo +$2,121 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.1] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~3.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,833 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,250 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 17 Jul 2026) $15 @ 73% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.82/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.60–$1.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 246 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $16.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $14.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,850 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $14): -$6,751 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,751 (+$2,099 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,676 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,075, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,650, position total $-7,682 (+$1,168 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 13 × $13 | 10 Jul | 2d | 4.8% | 72% | 58% | $247 | $3,705 | +$1,785 | $4,667 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 13 × $13 4.8% OTM over spot $12.41 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.26 mid) = $247 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,705/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $13.26) 79% EV / mo +$790 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-2.8] median · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~19.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,605 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$430 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.74/sh now → $0.52 mid-life (likely $0.62–$1.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,061 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $13 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $4 below CC-SS $16.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $13.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,850 − CC assignment net of premium (13 × $13): -$4,667 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $16): -$804 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,472 (+$3,378 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,676 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,796, the opportunity cost of earning $3,705/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,215, position total $-6,403 (+$2,447 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 24 × $16 | 17 Jul | 9d | 28.9% | 95% | 11% | $144 | $480 | -$1,353 | $1,729 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $16 28.9% OTM over spot $12.41 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.07 mid) = $144 credit for the 9d cycle → $480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $16.07) 95% EV / mo +$253 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.1] median · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~1.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-468 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,243 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 67% POP 55% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.41/sh now → $0.99 mid-life (likely $0.71–$1.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 205 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $16 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $1 below CC-SS $16.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $16.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,850 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $16): -$1,729 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $16): -$67 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,796 (+$7,054 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,676 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-120, the opportunity cost of earning $480/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,432, position total $-2,727 (+$6,123 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 17 × $14 | 17 Jul | 9d | 12.8% | 80% | 42% | $374 | $1,247 | -$587 | $4,353 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $14 12.8% OTM over spot $12.41 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.29 mid) = $374 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,247/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $14.29) 84% EV / mo +$241 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~5.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $896 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,000 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $14 @ 67% POP 55% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.14/sh now → $0.81 mid-life (likely $0.86–$1.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 937 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $14 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $16.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $14.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,850 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $14): -$4,353 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $16): -$536 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,889 (+$3,961 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,676 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,213, the opportunity cost of earning $1,247/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,684, position total $-5,820 (+$3,030 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 25 × $14 | 17 Jul | 9d | 12.8% | 80% | 32% | $550 | $1,833 | — | $6,401 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $14 12.8% OTM over spot $12.41 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.29 mid) = $550 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,833/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $14.29) 84% EV / mo +$354 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-3.0] median · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~5.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,132 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,471 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $14 @ 67% POP 55% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.14/sh now → $0.81 mid-life (likely $0.81–$1.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 947 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $14 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $16.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $14.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,850 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $14): -$6,401 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,401 (+$2,449 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,676 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,725, the opportunity cost of earning $1,833/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,300, position total $-7,332 (+$1,518 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $13 | 17 Jul | 9d | 4.8% | 65% | 75% | $1,100 | $3,667 | +$1,833 | $6,461 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $13 4.8% OTM over spot $12.41 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.60 mid) = $1,100 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,667/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $13.60) 75% EV / mo +$894 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-2.7] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~11.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,590 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 60% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$344 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 80% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.02/sh now → $0.72 mid-life (likely $0.92–$1.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,806 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $13 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $4 below CC-SS $16.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $13.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,850 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $13): -$6,461 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $16): -$335 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,796 (+$2,054 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,676 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,120, the opportunity cost of earning $3,667/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,380, position total $-7,727 (+$1,123 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 7 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.810 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,850 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,676
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.08 | 16/25 | $1,920 | $1,632 | 92% | 93% | +$1,357 | -$4,321 | 46.2% | $-4,924 (vs do-nothing $-3,248) |
| $13.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.07 | 18/25 | $1,890 | $1,561 | 84% | 89% | +$231 | -$5,779 | 61.8% | $-6,248 (vs do-nothing $-4,572) |
| $14 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 25/25 | $1,833 | $1,360 | 80% | 84% | +$354 | -$6,401 | 68.5% | $-6,401 (vs do-nothing $-4,725) |
| $13 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.19 | 7/25 | $1,995 | $1,892 | 72% | 79% | +$426 | -$2,513 | 26.9% | $-3,720 (vs do-nothing $-2,044) |
| $13 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.55 | 10/25 | $1,833 | $1,669 | 65% | 75% | +$447 | -$3,230 | 34.5% | $-4,236 (vs do-nothing $-2,560) |
| $12.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.78 | 13/25 | $1,901 | $1,675 | 55% | 70% | $-12 | -$4,550 | 48.7% | $-5,355 (vs do-nothing $-3,679) |
| $12.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 16/25 | $1,867 | $1,579 | 55% | 67% | $-1,393 | -$6,289 | 67.3% | $-6,892 (vs do-nothing $-5,216) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.