FORTRESS FIGHT: CLSK @ $12.23

BE SS: $20.74  |  CC-SS: $17.56  |  25 contracts (2,500 sh)  |  2026-07-09 03:37 |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

CLSK @ $12.23   UNDERWATER $8.50 (41.0% below BE SS)

25 contracts (2,500 sh)  |  BE SS: $20.74  |  CC-SS: $17.56  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$26,850(ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500
Normal income ref$4,025/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$481/mo
Unrealized P&L$-10,725fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,013/mo
HEDGE COVER
$481/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$4,025/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
2.3 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
6.7 mo to earn back $26,850
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $17.56 (probe: $17C 15d) brings only $100/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; CC-SS ratchets down as premium accrues.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 46 (live) · RSI 47 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 34 · %B 8 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.74 (+53%) · daily UBB $18.93 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 20 contracts at $13.50 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 78%, breach 22%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,013/mo); it brings $2,025/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 19 × $12.50/8d for $4,061/mo, but breach risk rises to 41% (+19pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 19 × $15/8d (93% survival, $499/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $7,588 (81% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $21, recoverable in 1.9 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 20 contracts realizes $-8,630 and cuts bleed by $385/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (8d) · sell 20 × $13.50, 78% survival, $2,025/mo (E[net] $433/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 8d20 × $13.5078%$2,025$433

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 8d · E[net] $433/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 20 × $13.50 (primary), 78% survival, breach 22%, $2,025/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $14 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 22% → 15%) for $686/mo less (34% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $14 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect CLSK to stay flat-to-down near term.
CLSK  spot $12.23 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge19 × $1517 Jul8d22.6%93%15%$133$499-$1,526$4,739
Sell 19 × $15 22.6% OTM over spot $12.23 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.09 mid)
= $133 credit for the 8d cycle → $499/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
93%
Breach risk
7%
POP (stays ≤ $15.09)
93%
EV / mo
+$243
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.2 mo [1.2-4.2] median  ·  52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without)  ·  ~2.0 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-762
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
9%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,268
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$16 @ 74% POP
64% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.04/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.59–$1.00)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.67/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 275 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (19 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1524 Jul 202611d left+$0.37/sh+$707
cycle +$840
[+$702…+$1,025] · 100% credit
69%
surv 54%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1624 Jul 202611d left+$0.02/sh+$35
cycle +$168
[-$76…+$249] · 63% credit
74%
surv 64%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1624 Jul 202611d left+$0.02/sh+$35
cycle +$168
[-$76…+$249] · 63% credit
74%
surv 64%
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$499/mo
vs 50% target ($2,013/mo)-75%
vs normal income ($4,025/mo)12% covered
Net income (after hedge)$41/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$4,739
… as % of IC ($9,350)50.7%
… as % of ML ($26,850)17.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.2 mo
Surgical close (19 ct)$-8,179
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $15.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $14.85Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$15-15.09
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $15.09
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$15.00 (1.6σ)$133$-5,015+$5,710+$95
+2.5%$15.37 (1.9σ)$-579$-4,973+$5,752-$617
+5%$15.75 (2.1σ)$-1,292$-4,931+$5,794-$1,330
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (5.0σ)$-10,773$-6,614+$4,111-$3,705
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.56, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,725
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,725
− CC assignment net of premium (19 × $15): -$4,739
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $17): -$327
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,065 (+$5,660 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,360 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,705, the opportunity cost of earning $499/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,973, position total $-5,639 (+$5,086 vs today)
🛡 safe yield25 × $1517 Jul8d22.6%93%15%$175$656-$1,369$6,235
Sell 25 × $15 22.6% OTM over spot $12.23 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.09 mid)
= $175 credit for the 8d cycle → $656/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
93%
Breach risk
7%
POP (stays ≤ $15.09)
93%
EV / mo
+$319
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-4.1] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.5 mo)  ·  48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without)  ·  ~1.9 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-167
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
9%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,669
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$16 @ 74% POP
64% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.04/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.58–$0.98)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.67/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 265 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (25 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1524 Jul 202611d left+$0.37/sh+$930
cycle +$1,105
[+$924…+$1,403] · 100% credit
69%
surv 54%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1624 Jul 202611d left+$0.02/sh+$46
cycle +$221
[-$79…+$388] · 63% credit
74%
surv 64%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1624 Jul 202611d left+$0.02/sh+$46
cycle +$221
[-$79…+$388] · 63% credit
74%
surv 64%
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$656/mo
vs 50% target ($2,013/mo)-67%
vs normal income ($4,025/mo)16% covered
Net income (after hedge)$175/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$6,235
… as % of IC ($9,350)66.7%
… as % of ML ($26,850)23.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.5 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)$-10,762
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $15.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $14.85Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$15-15.09
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $15.09
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$15.00 (1.6σ)$175$-4,985+$5,740+$125
+2.5%$15.37 (1.9σ)$-762$-5,168+$5,557-$812
+5%$15.75 (2.1σ)$-1,700$-5,351+$5,374-$1,750
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (5.0σ)$-14,175$-7,784+$2,941-$4,875
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.56, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,725
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,725
− CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15): -$6,235
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,235 (+$4,490 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,360 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,875, the opportunity cost of earning $656/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,175, position total $-6,809 (+$3,916 vs today)
33% normal ← lean21 × $1417 Jul8d14.4%85%32%$357$1,339-$686$7,128
Sell 21 × $14 14.4% OTM over spot $12.23 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.20 mid)
= $357 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,339/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $14)
85%
Breach risk
15%
POP (stays ≤ $14.20)
87%
EV / mo
+$515
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-3.9] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo)  ·  57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without)  ·  ~4.9 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $902
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
23%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,033
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$15 @ 78% POP
72% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.94/sh now → $0.66 mid-life (likely $0.65–$1.06)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.49/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 686 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (21 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1424 Jul 202611d left+$0.33/sh+$699
cycle +$1,056
[+$601…+$893] · 100% credit
69%
surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1424 Jul 202611d left+$0.22/sh+$466
cycle +$823
[+$336…+$625] · 99% credit
71%
surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1424 Jul 202611d left+$0.22/sh+$466
cycle +$823
[+$336…+$625] · 99% credit
71%
surv 58%
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1524 Jul 202611d left-$0.16/sh-$331
cycle +$26
[-$637…-$273] · 9% credit
78%
surv 72%
budget: banked $357 debit $331 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$26 cash · rolled 21 ct earn ≈ $2,888/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,339/mo
vs 50% target ($2,013/mo)-33%
vs normal income ($4,025/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$873/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$7,128
… as % of IC ($9,350)76.2%
… as % of ML ($26,850)26.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.8 mo
Surgical close (21 ct)$-9,061
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $14.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $13.86Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$14-14.20
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $14.20
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$14.00 (1.0σ)$357$-6,808+$3,917+$315
+2.5%$14.35 (1.2σ)$-378$-6,839+$3,886-$420
+5%$14.70 (1.5σ)$-1,113$-6,869+$3,856-$1,155
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (5.0σ)$-13,797$-8,894+$1,831-$5,985
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.56, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,725
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,725
− CC assignment net of premium (21 × $14): -$7,128
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $17): -$218
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,345 (+$3,380 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,360 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,985, the opportunity cost of earning $1,339/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,597, position total $-7,919 (+$2,806 vs today)
🎯 50% normal20 × $13.5017 Jul8d10.3%78%34%$540$2,025$7,588
Sell 20 × $13.50 10.3% OTM over spot $12.23 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.30 mid)
= $540 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,025/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $13.50)
78%
Breach risk
22%
POP (stays ≤ $13.79)
82%
EV / mo
+$696
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.1 mo [1.0-4.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung  ·  57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without)  ·  ~7.8 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $1,828
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
34%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$711
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$15 @ 79% POP
73% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.88/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.68–$1.04)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.36/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,018 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (20 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1424 Jul 202611d left+$0.31/sh+$628
cycle +$1,168
[+$502…+$707] · 100% credit
69%
surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1424 Jul 202611d left+$0.20/sh+$404
cycle +$944
[+$257…+$471] · 100% credit
71%
surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1424 Jul 202611d left+$0.20/sh+$404
cycle +$944
[+$257…+$471] · 100% credit
71%
surv 58%
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1524 Jul 202611d left-$0.17/sh-$340
cycle +$200
[-$662…-$358] · 4% credit
79%
surv 73%
budget: banked $540 debit $340 (63% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$200 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,484/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,025/mo
vs 50% target ($2,013/mo)+1%
vs normal income ($4,025/mo)50% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,564/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$7,588
… as % of IC ($9,350)81.2%
… as % of ML ($26,850)28.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.9 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)$-8,630
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $13.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $13.37Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$13-13.79
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $13.79
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$13.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$540$-7,629+$3,096+$500
+2.5%$13.84 (≤1σ, normal week)$-135$-7,625+$3,100-$175
+5%$14.18 (1.1σ)$-810$-7,621+$3,104-$850
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (5.0σ)$-13,940$-9,409+$1,316-$6,500
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.56, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,725
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,725
− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $13.50): -$7,588
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $17): -$272
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,860 (+$2,865 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,360 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,500, the opportunity cost of earning $2,025/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,940, position total $-8,434 (+$2,291 vs today)
100% normal19 × $12.5017 Jul8d2.2%59%87%$1,083$4,061+$2,036$8,539
Sell 19 × $12.50 2.2% OTM over spot $12.23 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.61 mid)
= $1,083 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,061/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $12.50)
59%
Breach risk
41%
POP (stays ≤ $13.12)
71%
EV / mo
+$747
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo)  ·  66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without)  ·  ~19.1 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $2,425
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
69%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
+$27
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$15 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.79/sh now → $0.56 mid-life (likely $0.76–$1.07)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.01/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 2,080 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $13 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (19 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1224 Jul 202611d left+$0.28/sh+$528
cycle +$1,611
[+$363…+$457] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1324 Jul 202611d left+$0.16/sh+$313
cycle +$1,396
[+$120…+$214] · 97% credit
71%
surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1324 Jul 202611d left+$0.16/sh+$313
cycle +$1,396
[+$120…+$214] · 97% credit
71%
surv 58%
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1524 Jul 202611d left-$0.44/sh-$842
cycle +$241
[-$1,535…-$1,113]
91%
surv 90%
budget: banked $1,083 debit $842 (78% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$241 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $583/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,061/mo
vs 50% target ($2,013/mo)+102%
vs normal income ($4,025/mo)101% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,604/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $12.50 is $5 below CC-SS $17.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$8,539
… as % of IC ($9,350)91.3%
… as % of ML ($26,850)31.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.1 mo
Surgical close (19 ct)$-8,236
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $13.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $12.38Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$12-13.12
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $13.12
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$12.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,083$-9,097+$1,628+$1,045
+2.5%$12.81 (≤1σ, normal week)$489$-9,062+$1,663+$451
+5%$13.12 (≤1σ, normal week)$-105$-9,026+$1,699-$142
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (5.0σ)$-14,573$-10,414+$311-$7,505
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.56, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,725
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,725
− CC assignment net of premium (19 × $12.50): -$8,539
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $17): -$327
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,865 (+$1,860 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,360 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,505, the opportunity cost of earning $4,061/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,773, position total $-9,439 (+$1,286 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on CLSK are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (8 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.805 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$10,725 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,360

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$13.508d17 Jul 2026$0.2720/25$2,025$1,56478%82%+$696-$7,58881.2%$-7,860 (vs do-nothing $-6,500)
$13.5015d24 Jul 2026$0.4622/25$2,024$1,55573%80%+$605-$7,92984.8%$-8,092 (vs do-nothing $-6,732)
$138d17 Jul 2026$0.4114/25$2,152$1,71569%77%+$615-$5,81662.2%$-6,414 (vs do-nothing $-5,054)
$1315d24 Jul 2026$0.6017/25$2,040$1,59166%75%+$469-$6,73972.1%$-7,174 (vs do-nothing $-5,814)
$12.508d17 Jul 2026$0.5710/25$2,137$1,71659%71%+$393-$4,49448.1%$-5,310 (vs do-nothing $-3,950)
$12.5015d24 Jul 2026$0.8313/25$2,158$1,72558%71%+$470-$5,50458.9%$-6,157 (vs do-nothing $-4,797)
$1215d24 Jul 2026$1.0410/25$2,080$1,65950%68%+$301-$4,52448.4%$-5,340 (vs do-nothing $-3,980)
$128d17 Jul 2026$0.817/25$2,126$1,71747%66%+$279-$3,32835.6%$-4,307 (vs do-nothing $-2,947)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0  |  2026-07-09 03:37