25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.26 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $2,900/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $461/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,662 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 13 × $14 | 72% | $1,560 | $237 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 21 × $16 | 17 Jul | 8d | 22.8% | 92% | 16% | $126 | $472 | -$1,088 | $2,511 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $16 22.8% OTM over spot $13.03 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.07 mid) = $126 credit for the 8d cycle → $472/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $16.07) 93% EV / mo +$135 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~1.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-16 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,477 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 69% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.08/sh now → $0.76 mid-life (likely $0.61–$1.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 261 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $16 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $1 below CC-SS $17.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $16.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,662 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,662 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $16): -$2,511 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $16): -$450 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,961 (+$5,701 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,814 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-147, the opportunity cost of earning $472/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,691, position total $-3,642 (+$5,020 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 22 × $15 | 17 Jul | 8d | 15.1% | 85% | 31% | $264 | $990 | -$570 | $4,698 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $15 15.1% OTM over spot $13.03 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.18 mid) = $264 credit for the 8d cycle → $990/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $15.18) 87% EV / mo +$96 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~4.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $452 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,254 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.98/sh now → $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.64–$1.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 661 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $2 below CC-SS $17.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $15.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,662 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,662 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $15): -$4,698 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $16): -$338 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,036 (+$3,626 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,814 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,222, the opportunity cost of earning $990/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,030, position total $-5,717 (+$2,945 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 13 × $14 | 17 Jul | 8d | 7.4% | 72% | 44% | $416 | $1,560 | — | $3,816 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 13 × $14 7.4% OTM over spot $13.03 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.38 mid) = $416 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,560/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $14.38) 78% EV / mo +$219 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~9.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,862 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$390 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.88/sh now → $0.62 mid-life (likely $0.71–$1.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,314 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $17.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $14.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,662 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,662 − CC assignment net of premium (13 × $14): -$3,816 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $16): -$1,351 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,167 (+$3,495 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,814 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,353, the opportunity cost of earning $1,560/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,785, position total $-5,848 (+$2,814 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 25 × $14 | 17 Jul | 8d | 7.4% | 72% | 59% | $800 | $3,000 | +$1,440 | $7,339 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $14 7.4% OTM over spot $13.03 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.38 mid) = $800 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $14.38) 78% EV / mo +$420 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-2.9] median · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~8.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,561 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$749 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.88/sh now → $0.62 mid-life (likely $0.73–$1.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,370 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $17.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $14.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,662 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,662 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $14): -$7,339 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,339 (+$1,323 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,814 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,525, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,125, position total $-8,020 (+$642 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 7 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.820 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,662 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,814
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 25/25 | $1,500 | $1,039 | 75% | 81% | $-98 | -$6,139 | 65.7% | $-6,139 (vs do-nothing $-3,325) |
| $14 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 13/25 | $1,560 | $1,411 | 72% | 78% | +$219 | -$3,816 | 40.8% | $-5,167 (vs do-nothing $-2,353) |
| $14 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 14/25 | $1,456 | $1,281 | 69% | 78% | +$211 | -$3,830 | 41.0% | $-5,068 (vs do-nothing $-2,254) |
| $13.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.18 | 22/25 | $1,485 | $1,102 | 63% | 73% | $-2,027 | -$7,866 | 84.1% | $-8,204 (vs do-nothing $-5,390) |
| $13.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 13/25 | $1,508 | $1,359 | 61% | 74% | $-81 | -$4,128 | 44.2% | $-5,479 (vs do-nothing $-2,665) |
| $13 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 12/25 | $1,464 | $1,341 | 53% | 67% | $-518 | -$4,375 | 46.8% | $-5,838 (vs do-nothing $-3,024) |
| $13 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 10/25 | $1,500 | $1,429 | 52% | 65% | $-885 | -$3,856 | 41.2% | $-5,544 (vs do-nothing $-2,730) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.