25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.26 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,089/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $462/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,725 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 19 × $14 | 74% | $2,606 | $626 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 22 × $16 | 17 Jul | 7d | 23.1% | 95% | 10% | $110 | $471 | -$2,134 | $2,665 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $16 23.1% OTM over spot $12.99 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.06 mid) = $110 credit for the 7d cycle → $471/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $16.06) 95% EV / mo +$290 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.1] median · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~1.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-485 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,515 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.04/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.53–$0.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 185 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $1 below CC-SS $17.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $16.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,725 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $16): -$2,665 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $20): +$12 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,653 (+$6,072 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,753, the opportunity cost of earning $471/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,984, position total $-2,887 (+$5,838 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $15.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 19.3% | 92% | 16% | $225 | $964 | -$1,641 | $4,179 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $15.50 19.3% OTM over spot $12.99 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.10 mid) = $225 credit for the 7d cycle → $964/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $15.60) 93% EV / mo +$585 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $459 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,531 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.99/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.58–$1.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 297 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $15.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,725 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15.50): -$4,179 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,179 (+$4,546 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,279, the opportunity cost of earning $964/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,950, position total $-4,865 (+$3,860 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 18 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 11.6% | 82% | 37% | $396 | $1,697 | -$909 | $4,575 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $14.50 11.6% OTM over spot $12.99 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.23 mid) = $396 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,697/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $14.73) 85% EV / mo +$784 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.6-3.6] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~6.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,416 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$741 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.89/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.61–$1.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 747 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $14.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,725 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $14.50): -$4,575 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $20): +$28 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,547 (+$4,178 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,647, the opportunity cost of earning $1,697/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,290, position total $-4,177 (+$4,548 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $14 | 17 Jul | 7d | 7.7% | 74% | 41% | $608 | $2,606 | — | $5,589 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $14 7.7% OTM over spot $12.99 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.36 mid) = $608 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,606/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $14.36) 80% EV / mo +$915 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.0] median · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~9.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,955 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$528 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.85/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.66–$1.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,220 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $17.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $14.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,725 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $14): -$5,589 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $20): +$24 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,565 (+$3,160 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,665, the opportunity cost of earning $2,606/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,455, position total $-5,346 (+$3,379 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 25 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.9% | 64% | 75% | $1,200 | $5,143 | +$2,537 | $8,204 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $13.50 3.9% OTM over spot $12.99 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.52 mid) = $1,200 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,143/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $14.02) 75% EV / mo +$1,415 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-2.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~13.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,517 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 57% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$212 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.80/sh now → $0.56 mid-life (likely $0.72–$1.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,715 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.48 collected) or spot ≥ $14.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,725 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $13.50): -$8,204 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,204 (+$521 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,304, the opportunity cost of earning $5,143/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,975, position total $-8,890 ($-165 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.818 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,725 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $100
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 19/25 | $2,606 | $2,178 | 74% | 80% | +$915 | -$5,589 | 59.8% | $-5,565 (vs do-nothing $-5,665) |
| $14 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.56 | 22/25 | $2,640 | $2,195 | 70% | 77% | +$774 | -$5,943 | 63.6% | $-5,931 (vs do-nothing $-6,031) |
| $14 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.77 | 24/25 | $2,640 | $2,184 | 67% | 76% | +$596 | -$5,980 | 64.0% | $-5,976 (vs do-nothing $-6,076) |
| $13.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.48 | 13/25 | $2,674 | $2,281 | 64% | 75% | +$736 | -$4,266 | 45.6% | $-4,218 (vs do-nothing $-4,318) |
| $13.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.73 | 17/25 | $2,659 | $2,243 | 62% | 73% | +$621 | -$5,154 | 55.1% | $-5,122 (vs do-nothing $-5,222) |
| $13.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.97 | 19/25 | $2,633 | $2,205 | 61% | 73% | +$554 | -$5,304 | 56.7% | $-5,280 (vs do-nothing $-5,380) |
| $13 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.17 | 16/25 | $2,674 | $2,264 | 54% | 70% | +$447 | -$4,946 | 52.9% | $-4,910 (vs do-nothing $-5,010) |
| $13 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 13/25 | $2,646 | $2,253 | 54% | 69% | +$494 | -$4,305 | 46.0% | $-4,257 (vs do-nothing $-4,357) |
| $13 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.69 | 9/25 | $2,661 | $2,291 | 53% | 69% | +$530 | -$3,214 | 34.4% | $-3,150 (vs do-nothing $-3,250) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.