FORTRESS FIGHT: CLSK @ $12.88

BE SS: $20.74  |  CC-SS: $17.10  |  25 contracts (2,500 sh)  |  2026-07-10 02:12 |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

CLSK @ $12.88   UNDERWATER $7.85 (37.9% below BE SS)

25 contracts (2,500 sh)  |  BE SS: $20.74  |  CC-SS: $17.10  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$26,850(ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500
Normal income ref$4,929/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$455/mo
Unrealized P&L$-8,600fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,464/mo
HEDGE COVER
$455/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$4,929/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.9 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
5.4 mo to earn back $26,850
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $17.10 (probe: $17C 14d) brings only $429/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; CC-SS ratchets down as premium accrues.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 51 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 40 · %B 18 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.77 (+46%) · daily UBB $18.88 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 20 contracts at $14 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 77%, breach 23%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,464/mo); it brings $2,486/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 18 × $13/7d for $5,091/mo, but breach risk rises to 45% (+21pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 22 × $16/7d (96% survival, $471/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $5,621 (60% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $21, recoverable in 1.1 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 20 contracts realizes $-6,940 and cuts bleed by $364/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 20 × $14, 77% survival, $2,486/mo (E[net] $495/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d20 × $1477%$2,486$495

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $495/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 20 × $14 (primary), 77% survival, breach 23%, $2,486/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $14.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 84% (breach 23% → 16%) for $857/mo less (34% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $14.50 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect CLSK to stay flat-to-down near term.
CLSK  spot $12.88 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge22 × $1617 Jul7d24.2%96%9%$110$471-$2,014$2,312
Sell 22 × $16 24.2% OTM over spot $12.88 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.06 mid)
= $110 credit for the 7d cycle → $471/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $16)
96%
Breach risk
4%
POP (stays ≤ $16.06)
96%
EV / mo
+$332
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung  ·  57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without)  ·  ~1.1 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-391
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
5%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,656
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$18 @ 77% POP
70% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.13/sh now → $0.80 mid-life (likely $0.57–$1.05)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.75/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 154 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (22 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1624 Jul 202610d left+$0.32/sh+$704
cycle +$814
[+$641…+$1,174] · 97% credit
69%
surv 53%
-$1,420 NOT
cap gain +$7,180
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1724 Jul 202610d left+$0.11/sh+$233
cycle +$343
[+$108…+$655] · 83% credit
73%
surv 62%
-$635 NOT
cap gain +$7,965
Max even-money escape in the band~$1831 Jul 202618d left+$0.08/sh+$183
cycle +$293
[+$5…+$675] · 75% credit
77%
surv 70%
+$1,354 SAFE
cap gain +$9,954
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$471/mo
vs 50% target ($2,464/mo)-81%
vs normal income ($4,929/mo)10% covered
Net income (after hedge)$33/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $16 is $1 below CC-SS $17.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$2,312
… as % of IC ($9,350)24.7%
… as % of ML ($26,850)8.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.5 mo
Surgical close (22 ct)$-7,590
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $16.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.84Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$16-16.06
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $16.06
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$16.00 (1.9σ)$110$-2,123+$6,477+$22
+2.5%$16.40 (2.2σ)$-770$-2,187+$6,413-$858
+5%$16.80 (2.4σ)$-1,650$-2,251+$6,349-$1,738
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (4.9σ)$-10,318$-3,104+$5,496-$8,778
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.10, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,600
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,600
− CC assignment net of premium (22 × $16): -$2,312
+ Conservative CC premium (3 × $20): +$12
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,300 (+$6,300 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,400, the opportunity cost of earning $471/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,984, position total $-2,567 (+$6,033 vs today)
🛡 safe yield25 × $15.5017 Jul7d20.3%93%13%$200$857-$1,629$3,802
Sell 25 × $15.50 20.3% OTM over spot $12.88 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.09 mid)
= $200 credit for the 7d cycle → $857/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $15.50)
93%
Breach risk
7%
POP (stays ≤ $15.59)
94%
EV / mo
+$561
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.9] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo)  ·  61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without)  ·  ~1.9 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $307
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
9%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,707
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$17 @ 77% POP
71% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.08/sh now → $0.76 mid-life (likely $0.61–$1.10)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.68/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 274 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (25 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1624 Jul 202610d left+$0.30/sh+$760
cycle +$960
[+$650…+$1,230] · 99% credit
69%
surv 53%
-$2,306 NOT
cap gain +$6,294
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1624 Jul 202610d left+$0.09/sh+$219
cycle +$419
[+$38…+$591] · 76% credit
74%
surv 62%
-$1,592 NOT
cap gain +$7,008
Max even-money escape in the band~$1731 Jul 202618d left+$0.05/sh+$137
cycle +$337
[-$149…+$557] · 67% credit
77%
surv 71%
+$366 SAFE
cap gain +$8,966
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$857/mo
vs 50% target ($2,464/mo)-65%
vs normal income ($4,929/mo)17% covered
Net income (after hedge)$402/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$3,802
… as % of IC ($9,350)40.7%
… as % of ML ($26,850)14.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.8 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)$-8,625
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $15.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.35Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$15-15.59
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $15.59
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$15.50 (1.6σ)$200$-3,065+$5,535+$100
+2.5%$15.89 (1.9σ)$-769$-3,244+$5,356-$869
+5%$16.28 (2.1σ)$-1,738$-3,422+$5,178-$1,838
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (4.9σ)$-12,900$-5,476+$3,124-$11,150
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.10, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,600
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,600
− CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15.50): -$3,802
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,802 (+$4,798 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,902, the opportunity cost of earning $857/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,975, position total $-4,570 (+$4,030 vs today)
33% normal ← lean20 × $14.5017 Jul7d12.5%84%32%$380$1,629-$857$4,821
Sell 20 × $14.50 12.5% OTM over spot $12.88 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.21 mid)
= $380 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,629/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $14.50)
84%
Breach risk
16%
POP (stays ≤ $14.71)
87%
EV / mo
+$793
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.8 mo [0.8-3.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo)  ·  64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without)  ·  ~4.9 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $1,262
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
24%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$993
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$17 @ 81% POP
76% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.97/sh now → $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.67–$1.08)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 727 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (20 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1424 Jul 202610d left+$0.27/sh+$546
cycle +$926
[+$371…+$709] · 98% credit
69%
surv 53%
-$4,359 NOT
cap gain +$4,241
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1631 Jul 202618d left+$0.17/sh+$342
cycle +$722
[+$58…+$482] · 80% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$2,288 NOT
cap gain +$6,312
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1524 Jul 202610d left+$0.05/sh+$105
cycle +$485
[-$129…+$216] · 57% credit
74%
surv 63%
-$3,545 NOT
cap gain +$5,055
Max even-money escape in the band~$1631 Jul 202618d left+$0.00/sh+$3
cycle +$383
[-$343…+$98] · 35% credit
78%
surv 72%
-$1,608 NOT
cap gain +$6,992
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1731 Jul 202618d left-$0.13/sh-$255
cycle +$125
[-$657…-$188] · 14% credit
81%
surv 76%
-$846 NOT
cap gain +$7,754
budget: banked $380 debit $255 (67% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$125 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $1,862/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,629/mo
vs 50% target ($2,464/mo)-34%
vs normal income ($4,929/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,202/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$4,821
… as % of IC ($9,350)51.6%
… as % of ML ($26,850)18.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.0 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)$-6,930
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $14.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $14.36Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$14-14.71
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $14.71
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$14.50 (1.0σ)$380$-4,905+$3,695+$300
+2.5%$14.86 (1.2σ)$-345$-4,891+$3,709-$425
+5%$15.23 (1.5σ)$-1,070$-4,876+$3,724-$1,150
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (4.9σ)$-12,100$-5,026+$3,574-$10,700
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.10, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,600
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,600
− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $14.50): -$4,821
+ Conservative CC premium (5 × $20): +$20
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,801 (+$3,799 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,901, the opportunity cost of earning $1,629/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,160, position total $-4,735 (+$3,865 vs today)
🎯 50% normal20 × $1417 Jul7d8.7%77%36%$580$2,486$5,621
Sell 20 × $14 8.7% OTM over spot $12.88 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.32 mid)
= $580 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,486/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $14)
77%
Breach risk
23%
POP (stays ≤ $14.32)
82%
EV / mo
+$975
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.8 mo [0.8-3.5] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung  ·  61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without)  ·  ~8.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $2,504
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
36%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$719
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$17 @ 84% POP
81% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.92/sh now → $0.65 mid-life (likely $0.71–$1.06)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.36/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,073 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (20 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1424 Jul 202610d left+$0.26/sh+$517
cycle +$1,097
[+$294…+$567] · 97% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$5,209 NOT
cap gain +$3,391
Max even-money escape in the band~$1531 Jul 202618d left+$0.14/sh+$283
cycle +$863
[-$45…+$315] · 69% credit
76%
surv 68%
-$3,168 NOT
cap gain +$5,432
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1524 Jul 202610d left+$0.04/sh+$72
cycle +$652
[-$197…+$96] · 36% credit
74%
surv 64%
-$4,398 NOT
cap gain +$4,202
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1731 Jul 202618d left-$0.24/sh-$482
cycle +$98
[-$977…-$535] · 2% credit
84%
surv 81%
-$873 NOT
cap gain +$7,727
budget: banked $580 debit $482 (83% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$98 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $1,361/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,486/mo
vs 50% target ($2,464/mo)+1%
vs normal income ($4,929/mo)50% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,059/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $17.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$5,621
… as % of IC ($9,350)60.1%
… as % of ML ($26,850)20.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.1 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)$-6,940
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $14.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $13.86Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$14-14.32
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $14.32
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$14.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$580$-5,725+$2,875+$500
+2.5%$14.35 (≤1σ, normal week)$-120$-5,711+$2,889-$200
+5%$14.70 (1.1σ)$-820$-5,697+$2,903-$900
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (4.9σ)$-12,900$-5,826+$2,774-$11,500
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.10, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,600
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,600
− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $14): -$5,621
+ Conservative CC premium (5 × $20): +$20
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,601 (+$2,999 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,701, the opportunity cost of earning $2,486/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,960, position total $-5,535 (+$3,065 vs today)
100% normal18 × $1317 Jul7d0.9%55%94%$1,188$5,091+$2,606$6,193
Sell 18 × $13 0.9% OTM over spot $12.88 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.70 mid)
= $1,188 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,091/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $13)
55%
Breach risk
45%
POP (stays ≤ $13.70)
71%
EV / mo
+$1,278
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.4 mo [0.6-3.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo)  ·  69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without)  ·  ~22.1 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $2,952
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
73%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
+$147
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$17 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.82/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.80–$1.22)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.08/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 2,194 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $13 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (18 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1324 Jul 202610d left+$0.23/sh+$414
cycle +$1,602
[+$112…+$271] · 89% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$6,736 NOT
cap gain +$1,864
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1431 Jul 202618d left+$0.25/sh+$456
cycle +$1,644
[+$59…+$268] · 82% credit
73%
surv 63%
-$5,438 NOT
cap gain +$3,162
Max even-money escape in the band~$1431 Jul 202618d left+$0.09/sh+$154
cycle +$1,342
[-$323…-$50] · 17% credit
76%
surv 69%
-$4,721 NOT
cap gain +$3,879
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1424 Jul 202610d left+$0.00/sh+$9
cycle +$1,197
[-$373…-$156] · 8% credit
75%
surv 65%
-$5,886 NOT
cap gain +$2,714
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1731 Jul 202618d left-$0.39/sh-$705
cycle +$483
[-$1,546…-$1,008]
90%
surv 89%
-$480 NOT
cap gain +$8,120
budget: banked $1,188 debit $705 (59% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$483 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $559/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$5,091/mo
vs 50% target ($2,464/mo)+107%
vs normal income ($4,929/mo)103% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,676/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $13 is $4 below CC-SS $17.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$6,193
… as % of IC ($9,350)66.2%
… as % of ML ($26,850)23.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.3 mo
Surgical close (18 ct)$-6,264
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.66 collected) or spot ≥ $13.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $12.87Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$13-13.70
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $13.70
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$13.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,188$-7,149+$1,451+$1,116
+2.5%$13.32 (≤1σ, normal week)$603$-7,071+$1,529+$531
+5%$13.65 (≤1σ, normal week)$18$-6,993+$1,607-$54
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (4.9σ)$-12,744$-5,810+$2,790-$11,484
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.10, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,600
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,600
− CC assignment net of premium (18 × $13): -$6,193
+ Conservative CC premium (7 × $20): +$28
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,165 (+$2,435 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,265, the opportunity cost of earning $5,091/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,198, position total $-5,765 (+$2,835 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on CLSK are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (9 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.816 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$8,600 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $100

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$147d17 Jul 2026$0.2920/25$2,486$2,05977%82%+$975-$5,62160.1%$-5,601 (vs do-nothing $-5,701)
$1414d24 Jul 2026$0.5322/25$2,499$2,06071%78%+$802-$5,65660.5%$-5,644 (vs do-nothing $-5,744)
$1421d31 Jul 2026$0.7523/25$2,464$2,02069%77%+$650-$5,40757.8%$-5,399 (vs do-nothing $-5,499)
$13.507d17 Jul 2026$0.4513/25$2,507$2,12067%76%+$814-$4,09643.8%$-4,048 (vs do-nothing $-4,148)
$13.5014d24 Jul 2026$0.7017/25$2,550$2,14064%74%+$681-$4,93152.7%$-4,899 (vs do-nothing $-4,999)
$13.5021d31 Jul 2026$0.9219/25$2,497$2,07663%73%+$562-$5,09354.5%$-5,069 (vs do-nothing $-5,169)
$1321d31 Jul 2026$1.1316/25$2,583$2,17956%71%+$498-$4,75350.8%$-4,717 (vs do-nothing $-4,817)
$1314d24 Jul 2026$0.9213/25$2,563$2,17656%71%+$571-$4,13544.2%$-4,087 (vs do-nothing $-4,187)
$137d17 Jul 2026$0.669/25$2,546$2,18255%71%+$639-$3,09733.1%$-3,033 (vs do-nothing $-3,133)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0  |  2026-07-10 02:12