FORTRESS FIGHT: CLSK @ $12.97

BE SS: $20.74  |  CC-SS: $17.18  |  25 contracts (2,500 sh)  |  2026-07-10 02:23 |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

CLSK @ $12.97   UNDERWATER $7.77 (37.5% below BE SS)

25 contracts (2,500 sh)  |  BE SS: $20.74  |  CC-SS: $17.18  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$26,850(ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500
Normal income ref$4,875/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$455/mo
Unrealized P&L$-8,600fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,438/mo
HEDGE COVER
$455/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$4,875/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.9 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
5.5 mo to earn back $26,850
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $17.18 (probe: $17C 14d) brings only $429/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; CC-SS ratchets down as premium accrues.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 52 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 40 · %B 19 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.77 (+45%) · daily UBB $18.88 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 20 contracts at $14 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 75%, breach 25%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,438/mo); it brings $2,486/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 25 × $13.50/7d for $4,929/mo, but breach risk rises to 35% (+10pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 22 × $16/7d (96% survival, $471/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $5,771 (62% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $21, recoverable in 1.2 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 20 contracts realizes $-6,950 and cuts bleed by $364/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 20 × $14, 75% survival, $2,486/mo (E[net] $451/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d20 × $1475%$2,486$451

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $451/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 20 × $14 (primary), 75% survival, breach 25%, $2,486/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $14.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 83% (breach 25% → 17%) for $857/mo less (34% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $14.50 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect CLSK to stay flat-to-down near term.
CLSK  spot $12.97 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge22 × $1617 Jul7d23.4%96%9%$110$471-$2,014$2,476
Sell 22 × $16 23.4% OTM over spot $12.97 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.06 mid)
= $110 credit for the 7d cycle → $471/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $16)
96%
Breach risk
4%
POP (stays ≤ $16.06)
96%
EV / mo
+$328
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.3] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung  ·  57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without)  ·  ~1.3 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-407
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
6%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,527
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$18 @ 79% POP
73% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.05/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.99)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.69/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 180 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (22 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1624 Jul 202610d left+$0.35/sh+$775
cycle +$885
[+$744…+$1,200] · 99% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$1,507 NOT
cap gain +$7,093
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1724 Jul 202610d left+$0.14/sh+$308
cycle +$418
[+$232…+$689] · 89% credit
72%
surv 61%
-$889 NOT
cap gain +$7,711
Max even-money escape in the band~$1831 Jul 202618d left+$0.13/sh+$297
cycle +$407
[+$194…+$740] · 84% credit
76%
surv 69%
+$1,144 SAFE
cap gain +$9,744
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1831 Jul 202618d left-$0.02/sh-$45
cycle +$65
[-$188…+$374] · 55% credit
79%
surv 73%
+$1,825 SAFE
cap gain +$10,425
budget: banked $110 debit $45 (41% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$65 cash · rolled 22 ct earn ≈ $2,653/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$471/mo
vs 50% target ($2,438/mo)-81%
vs normal income ($4,875/mo)10% covered
Net income (after hedge)$33/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $16 is $1 below CC-SS $17.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$2,476
… as % of IC ($9,350)26.5%
… as % of ML ($26,850)9.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.5 mo
Surgical close (22 ct)$-7,590
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $16.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.84Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$16-16.06
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $16.06
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$16.00 (1.8σ)$110$-2,282+$6,318+$22
+2.5%$16.40 (2.1σ)$-770$-2,344+$6,256-$858
+5%$16.80 (2.3σ)$-1,650$-2,406+$6,194-$1,738
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (4.7σ)$-10,318$-3,238+$5,362-$8,778
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.18, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,600
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,600
− CC assignment net of premium (22 × $16): -$2,476
+ Conservative CC premium (3 × $20): +$12
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,464 (+$6,136 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,564, the opportunity cost of earning $471/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,984, position total $-2,711 (+$5,889 vs today)
🛡 safe yield25 × $15.5017 Jul7d19.5%93%15%$200$857-$1,629$3,988
Sell 25 × $15.50 19.5% OTM over spot $12.97 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.09 mid)
= $200 credit for the 7d cycle → $857/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $15.50)
93%
Breach risk
7%
POP (stays ≤ $15.59)
93%
EV / mo
+$521
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.8 mo [0.8-3.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo)  ·  63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without)  ·  ~2.2 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $231
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
10%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,568
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$18 @ 79% POP
74% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.00/sh now → $0.71 mid-life (likely $0.58–$1.01)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.63/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 297 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (25 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1624 Jul 202610d left+$0.33/sh+$837
cycle +$1,037
[+$749…+$1,248] · 99% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$2,389 NOT
cap gain +$6,211
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1624 Jul 202610d left+$0.12/sh+$307
cycle +$507
[+$142…+$637] · 85% credit
72%
surv 61%
-$1,835 NOT
cap gain +$6,765
Max even-money escape in the band~$1731 Jul 202618d left+$0.10/sh+$262
cycle +$462
[+$36…+$622] · 78% credit
77%
surv 70%
+$165 SAFE
cap gain +$8,765
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1831 Jul 202618d left-$0.05/sh-$113
cycle +$87
[-$416…+$211] · 42% credit
79%
surv 74%
+$812 SAFE
cap gain +$9,412
budget: banked $200 debit $113 (56% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$87 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $2,759/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$857/mo
vs 50% target ($2,438/mo)-65%
vs normal income ($4,875/mo)18% covered
Net income (after hedge)$402/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$3,988
… as % of IC ($9,350)42.7%
… as % of ML ($26,850)14.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.8 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)$-8,625
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $15.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.35Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$15-15.59
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $15.59
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$15.50 (1.5σ)$200$-3,226+$5,374+$100
+2.5%$15.89 (1.8σ)$-769$-3,402+$5,198-$869
+5%$16.28 (2.0σ)$-1,738$-3,579+$5,021-$1,838
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (4.7σ)$-12,900$-5,610+$2,990-$11,150
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.18, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,600
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,600
− CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15.50): -$3,988
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,988 (+$4,612 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,088, the opportunity cost of earning $857/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,975, position total $-4,714 (+$3,886 vs today)
33% normal ← lean20 × $14.5017 Jul7d11.8%83%36%$380$1,629-$857$4,971
Sell 20 × $14.50 11.8% OTM over spot $12.97 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.21 mid)
= $380 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,629/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $14.50)
83%
Breach risk
17%
POP (stays ≤ $14.71)
85%
EV / mo
+$639
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo)  ·  63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without)  ·  ~5.5 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $1,165
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
27%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$893
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$17 @ 83% POP
80% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.90/sh now → $0.64 mid-life (likely $0.63–$1.00)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.45/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 799 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (20 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1424 Jul 202610d left+$0.30/sh+$603
cycle +$983
[+$447…+$745] · 99% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$4,468 NOT
cap gain +$4,132
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1631 Jul 202618d left+$0.19/sh+$389
cycle +$769
[+$146…+$503] · 87% credit
75%
surv 66%
-$2,575 NOT
cap gain +$6,025
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1524 Jul 202610d left+$0.09/sh+$179
cycle +$559
[-$24…+$265] · 69% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$3,808 NOT
cap gain +$4,792
Max even-money escape in the band~$1631 Jul 202618d left+$0.05/sh+$98
cycle +$478
[-$186…+$176] · 46% credit
78%
surv 71%
-$1,845 NOT
cap gain +$6,755
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1731 Jul 202618d left-$0.19/sh-$375
cycle +$5
[-$773…-$330] · 8% credit
83%
surv 80%
-$272 NOT
cap gain +$8,328
budget: banked $380 debit $375 (99% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $1,497/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,629/mo
vs 50% target ($2,438/mo)-33%
vs normal income ($4,875/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,202/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$4,971
… as % of IC ($9,350)53.2%
… as % of ML ($26,850)18.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.0 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)$-6,930
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $14.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $14.36Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$14-14.71
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $14.71
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$14.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$380$-5,071+$3,529+$300
+2.5%$14.86 (1.1σ)$-345$-5,055+$3,545-$425
+5%$15.23 (1.4σ)$-1,070$-5,039+$3,561-$1,150
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (4.7σ)$-12,100$-5,160+$3,440-$10,700
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.18, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,600
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,600
− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $14.50): -$4,971
+ Conservative CC premium (5 × $20): +$20
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,951 (+$3,649 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,051, the opportunity cost of earning $1,629/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,160, position total $-4,879 (+$3,721 vs today)
🎯 50% normal20 × $1417 Jul7d7.9%75%39%$580$2,486$5,771
Sell 20 × $14 7.9% OTM over spot $12.97 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.32 mid)
= $580 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,486/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $14)
75%
Breach risk
25%
POP (stays ≤ $14.32)
80%
EV / mo
+$732
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.3] median  ·  63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without)  ·  ~8.8 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $2,013
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
39%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$625
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$17 @ 86% POP
84% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.85/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.68–$1.00)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.31/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,182 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (20 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1424 Jul 202610d left+$0.29/sh+$571
cycle +$1,151
[+$381…+$611] · 99% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$5,323 NOT
cap gain +$3,277
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1531 Jul 202618d left+$0.17/sh+$331
cycle +$911
[+$37…+$341] · 80% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$3,456 NOT
cap gain +$5,144
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1524 Jul 202610d left+$0.07/sh+$148
cycle +$728
[-$100…+$149] · 50% credit
73%
surv 62%
-$4,662 NOT
cap gain +$3,938
Max even-money escape in the band~$1631 Jul 202618d left+$0.02/sh+$46
cycle +$626
[-$302…+$22] · 27% credit
78%
surv 72%
-$2,719 NOT
cap gain +$5,881
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1731 Jul 202618d left-$0.29/sh-$574
cycle +$6
[-$1,079…-$662] · 0% credit
86%
surv 84%
-$271 NOT
cap gain +$8,329
budget: banked $580 debit $574 (99% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$6 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $1,052/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,486/mo
vs 50% target ($2,438/mo)+2%
vs normal income ($4,875/mo)51% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,059/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $17.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$5,771
… as % of IC ($9,350)61.7%
… as % of ML ($26,850)21.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.2 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)$-6,950
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $14.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $13.86Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$14-14.32
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $14.32
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$14.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$580$-5,894+$2,706+$500
+2.5%$14.35 (≤1σ, normal week)$-120$-5,878+$2,722-$200
+5%$14.70 (1.1σ)$-820$-5,862+$2,738-$900
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (4.7σ)$-12,900$-5,960+$2,640-$11,500
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.18, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,600
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,600
− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $14): -$5,771
+ Conservative CC premium (5 × $20): +$20
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,751 (+$2,849 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,851, the opportunity cost of earning $2,486/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,960, position total $-5,679 (+$2,921 vs today)
100% normal25 × $13.5017 Jul7d4.1%65%74%$1,150$4,929+$2,443$8,038
Sell 25 × $13.50 4.1% OTM over spot $12.97 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.49 mid)
= $1,150 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,929/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $13.50)
65%
Breach risk
35%
POP (stays ≤ $13.99)
75%
EV / mo
+$1,253
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-2.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo)  ·  71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without)  ·  ~13.1 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $3,381
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
57%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$273
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$18 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.80/sh now → $0.57 mid-life (likely $0.72–$1.07)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.11/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,700 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (25 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1424 Jul 202610d left+$0.27/sh+$674
cycle +$1,824
[+$387…+$610] · 99% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$5,692 NOT
cap gain +$2,908
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1431 Jul 202618d left+$0.33/sh+$817
cycle +$1,967
[+$450…+$729] · 99% credit
72%
surv 61%
-$4,465 NOT
cap gain +$4,135
Max even-money escape in the band~$1531 Jul 202618d left+$0.14/sh+$344
cycle +$1,494
[-$129…+$205] · 58% credit
75%
surv 68%
-$3,916 NOT
cap gain +$4,684
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1424 Jul 202610d left+$0.06/sh+$146
cycle +$1,296
[-$244…+$26] · 28% credit
73%
surv 63%
-$5,136 NOT
cap gain +$3,464
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1831 Jul 202618d left-$0.40/sh-$1,001
cycle +$149
[-$1,937…-$1,297]
91%
surv 90%
+$874 SAFE
cap gain +$9,474
budget: banked $1,150 debit $1,001 (87% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$149 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $703/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,929/mo
vs 50% target ($2,438/mo)+102%
vs normal income ($4,875/mo)101% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,473/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$8,038
… as % of IC ($9,350)86.0%
… as % of ML ($26,850)29.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.6 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)$-8,687
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.46 collected) or spot ≥ $13.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $13.37Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$13-13.99
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $13.99
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$13.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,150$-6,366+$2,234+$1,050
+2.5%$13.84 (≤1σ, normal week)$306$-6,520+$2,080+$206
+5%$14.18 (≤1σ, normal week)$-538$-6,673+$1,927-$638
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (4.7σ)$-16,950$-9,660-$1,060-$15,200
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.18, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,600
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,600
− CC assignment net of premium (25 × $13.50): -$8,038
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,038 (+$562 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,138, the opportunity cost of earning $4,929/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,025, position total $-8,764 ($-164 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on CLSK are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (9 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.818 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$8,600 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $100

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$147d17 Jul 2026$0.2920/25$2,486$2,05975%80%+$732-$5,77161.7%$-5,751 (vs do-nothing $-5,851)
$1414d24 Jul 2026$0.5322/25$2,499$2,06070%77%+$587-$5,82062.2%$-5,808 (vs do-nothing $-5,908)
$1421d31 Jul 2026$0.7424/25$2,537$2,08868%76%+$553-$5,84562.5%$-5,841 (vs do-nothing $-5,941)
$13.507d17 Jul 2026$0.4613/25$2,563$2,17665%75%+$651-$4,18044.7%$-4,132 (vs do-nothing $-4,232)
$13.5014d24 Jul 2026$0.7017/25$2,550$2,14062%73%+$484-$5,05854.1%$-5,026 (vs do-nothing $-5,126)
$13.5021d31 Jul 2026$0.9319/25$2,524$2,10361%73%+$503-$5,21655.8%$-5,192 (vs do-nothing $-5,292)
$1321d31 Jul 2026$1.1316/25$2,583$2,17955%70%+$412-$4,87352.1%$-4,837 (vs do-nothing $-4,937)
$1314d24 Jul 2026$0.9113/25$2,535$2,14854%69%+$377-$4,24545.4%$-4,197 (vs do-nothing $-4,297)
$137d17 Jul 2026$0.679/25$2,584$2,22053%69%+$487-$3,15533.7%$-3,091 (vs do-nothing $-3,191)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0  |  2026-07-10 02:23