FORTRESS FIGHT: CLSK @ $13.06

BE SS: $20.74  |  CC-SS: $17.29  |  25 contracts (2,500 sh)  |  2026-07-10 03:38 |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

CLSK @ $13.06   UNDERWATER $7.68 (37.0% below BE SS)

25 contracts (2,500 sh)  |  BE SS: $20.74  |  CC-SS: $17.29  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$26,850(ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500
Normal income ref$4,982/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$455/mo
Unrealized P&L$-8,663fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,491/mo
HEDGE COVER
$455/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$4,982/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.9 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
5.4 mo to earn back $26,850
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $17.29 (probe: $17C 14d) brings only $482/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; CC-SS ratchets down as premium accrues.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 52 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 41 · %B 20 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.77 (+44%) · daily UBB $18.87 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 18 contracts at $14 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 73%, breach 27%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,491/mo); it brings $2,546/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 24 × $13.50/7d for $5,143/mo, but breach risk rises to 37% (+10pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 22 × $16/7d (95% survival, $471/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $5,320 (57% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $21, recoverable in 1.1 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 18 contracts realizes $-6,273 and cuts bleed by $328/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 18 × $14, 73% survival, $2,546/mo (E[net] $586/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d18 × $1473%$2,546$586

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $586/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 18 × $14 (primary), 73% survival, breach 27%, $2,546/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $14.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 82% (breach 27% → 18%) for $836/mo less (33% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $14.50 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect CLSK to stay flat-to-down near term.
CLSK  spot $13.06 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge22 × $1617 Jul7d22.5%95%9%$110$471-$2,074$2,718
Sell 22 × $16 22.5% OTM over spot $13.06 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.06 mid)
= $110 credit for the 7d cycle → $471/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $16)
95%
Breach risk
5%
POP (stays ≤ $16.06)
96%
EV / mo
+$316
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.4] median  ·  58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without)  ·  ~1.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-438
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
7%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,532
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$18 @ 78% POP
73% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.06/sh now → $0.75 mid-life (likely $0.56–$1.02)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.70/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 198 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (22 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1624 Jul 202610d left+$0.40/sh+$889
cycle +$999
[+$900…+$1,314] · 100% credit
69%
surv 53%
-$1,624 NOT
cap gain +$7,038
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1624 Jul 202610d left+$0.20/sh+$436
cycle +$546
[+$381…+$820] · 94% credit
72%
surv 60%
-$1,175 NOT
cap gain +$7,487
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1731 Jul 202618d left+$0.15/sh+$340
cycle +$450
[+$217…+$770] · 86% credit
76%
surv 69%
+$778 SAFE
cap gain +$9,441
Max even-money escape in the band~$1831 Jul 202618d left+$0.00/sh+$10
cycle +$120
[-$161…+$410] · 59% credit
78%
surv 73%
+$1,474 SAFE
cap gain +$10,136
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$471/mo
vs 50% target ($2,491/mo)-81%
vs normal income ($4,982/mo)9% covered
Net income (after hedge)$33/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $16 is $1 below CC-SS $17.29: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$2,718
… as % of IC ($9,350)29.1%
… as % of ML ($26,850)10.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.5 mo
Surgical close (22 ct)$-7,645
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $16.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.84Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$16-16.06
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $16.06
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$16.00 (1.8σ)$110$-2,514+$6,149+$22
+2.5%$16.40 (2.0σ)$-770$-2,574+$6,089-$858
+5%$16.80 (2.3σ)$-1,650$-2,634+$6,029-$1,738
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (4.7σ)$-10,318$-3,447+$5,216-$8,778
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.29, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,663
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,663
− CC assignment net of premium (22 × $16): -$2,718
+ Conservative CC premium (3 × $20): +$12
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,706 (+$5,956 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,806, the opportunity cost of earning $471/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,984, position total $-2,929 (+$5,733 vs today)
🛡 safe yield25 × $15.5017 Jul7d18.7%92%16%$200$857-$1,689$4,264
Sell 25 × $15.50 18.7% OTM over spot $13.06 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.10 mid)
= $200 credit for the 7d cycle → $857/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $15.50)
92%
Breach risk
8%
POP (stays ≤ $15.60)
93%
EV / mo
+$491
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.9 mo [0.8-3.8] median  ·  62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without)  ·  ~2.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $263
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
11%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,574
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$17 @ 79% POP
74% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.00/sh now → $0.71 mid-life (likely $0.60–$1.03)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.63/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 323 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (25 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1624 Jul 202610d left+$0.38/sh+$960
cycle +$1,160
[+$897…+$1,329] · 100% credit
69%
surv 53%
-$2,501 NOT
cap gain +$6,162
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1624 Jul 202610d left+$0.18/sh+$446
cycle +$646
[+$311…+$722] · 93% credit
72%
surv 60%
-$2,112 NOT
cap gain +$6,550
Max even-money escape in the band~$1731 Jul 202618d left+$0.12/sh+$311
cycle +$511
[+$61…+$594] · 81% credit
76%
surv 69%
-$198 NOT
cap gain +$8,465
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1731 Jul 202618d left-$0.02/sh-$54
cycle +$146
[-$369…+$213] · 45% credit
79%
surv 74%
+$463 SAFE
cap gain +$9,125
budget: banked $200 debit $54 (27% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$146 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $2,867/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$857/mo
vs 50% target ($2,491/mo)-66%
vs normal income ($4,982/mo)17% covered
Net income (after hedge)$402/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.29: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$4,264
… as % of IC ($9,350)45.6%
… as % of ML ($26,850)15.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.9 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)$-8,700
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $15.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.35Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$15-15.60
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $15.60
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$15.50 (1.5σ)$200$-3,461+$5,202+$100
+2.5%$15.89 (1.7σ)$-769$-3,635+$5,028-$869
+5%$16.28 (2.0σ)$-1,738$-3,809+$4,853-$1,838
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (4.7σ)$-12,900$-5,819+$2,844-$11,150
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.29, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,663
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,663
− CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15.50): -$4,264
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,264 (+$4,398 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,364, the opportunity cost of earning $857/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,975, position total $-4,932 (+$3,730 vs today)
33% normal ← lean19 × $14.5017 Jul7d11.0%82%38%$399$1,710-$836$4,894
Sell 19 × $14.50 11.0% OTM over spot $13.06 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.23 mid)
= $399 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,710/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $14.50)
82%
Breach risk
18%
POP (stays ≤ $14.73)
85%
EV / mo
+$689
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.7 mo [0.7-3.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung  ·  66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without)  ·  ~5.9 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $1,336
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
27%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$814
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$17 @ 83% POP
79% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.90/sh now → $0.64 mid-life (likely $0.63–$1.01)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 802 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (19 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1424 Jul 202610d left+$0.34/sh+$655
cycle +$1,054
[+$534…+$802] · 100% credit
69%
surv 53%
-$4,632 NOT
cap gain +$4,030
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1531 Jul 202618d left+$0.23/sh+$444
cycle +$843
[+$216…+$561] · 93% credit
74%
surv 65%
-$2,917 NOT
cap gain +$5,746
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1524 Jul 202610d left+$0.14/sh+$267
cycle +$666
[+$97…+$371] · 89% credit
72%
surv 61%
-$4,118 NOT
cap gain +$4,544
Max even-money escape in the band~$1631 Jul 202618d left+$0.07/sh+$128
cycle +$527
[-$155…+$212] · 47% credit
77%
surv 71%
-$2,207 NOT
cap gain +$6,455
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1731 Jul 202618d left-$0.18/sh-$335
cycle +$64
[-$720…-$288] · 9% credit
83%
surv 79%
-$621 NOT
cap gain +$8,042
budget: banked $399 debit $335 (84% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$64 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $1,463/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,710/mo
vs 50% target ($2,491/mo)-31%
vs normal income ($4,982/mo)34% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,289/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.29: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$4,894
… as % of IC ($9,350)52.3%
… as % of ML ($26,850)18.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.0 mo
Surgical close (19 ct)$-6,631
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $14.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $14.36Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$14-14.73
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $14.73
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$14.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$399$-5,288+$3,375+$323
+2.5%$14.86 (1.1σ)$-290$-5,233+$3,429-$366
+5%$15.23 (1.3σ)$-979$-5,179+$3,484-$1,055
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (4.7σ)$-11,457$-4,796+$3,867-$10,127
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.29, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,663
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,663
− CC assignment net of premium (19 × $14.50): -$4,894
+ Conservative CC premium (6 × $20): +$24
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,870 (+$3,793 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,970, the opportunity cost of earning $1,710/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,714, position total $-4,647 (+$4,015 vs today)
🎯 50% normal18 × $1417 Jul7d7.2%73%42%$594$2,546$5,320
Sell 18 × $14 7.2% OTM over spot $13.06 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.35 mid)
= $594 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,546/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $14)
73%
Breach risk
27%
POP (stays ≤ $14.35)
79%
EV / mo
+$836
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.5] median  ·  63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without)  ·  ~9.8 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $2,141
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
42%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$493
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$17 @ 86% POP
84% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.85/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.69–$1.03)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,262 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (18 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1424 Jul 202610d left+$0.33/sh+$587
cycle +$1,181
[+$433…+$624] · 100% credit
69%
surv 53%
-$5,527 NOT
cap gain +$3,136
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1531 Jul 202618d left+$0.20/sh+$366
cycle +$960
[+$91…+$360] · 87% credit
75%
surv 66%
-$3,821 NOT
cap gain +$4,842
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1424 Jul 202610d left+$0.12/sh+$221
cycle +$815
[+$18…+$222] · 80% credit
73%
surv 61%
-$4,991 NOT
cap gain +$3,672
Max even-money escape in the band~$1531 Jul 202618d left+$0.04/sh+$74
cycle +$668
[-$256…+$26] · 30% credit
78%
surv 71%
-$3,088 NOT
cap gain +$5,575
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1731 Jul 202618d left-$0.28/sh-$496
cycle +$98
[-$976…-$579] · 1% credit
86%
surv 84%
-$582 NOT
cap gain +$8,080
budget: banked $594 debit $496 (83% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$98 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $985/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,546/mo
vs 50% target ($2,491/mo)+2%
vs normal income ($4,982/mo)51% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,130/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $17.29: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$5,320
… as % of IC ($9,350)56.9%
… as % of ML ($26,850)19.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.1 mo
Surgical close (18 ct)$-6,273
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $14.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $13.86Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$14-14.35
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $14.35
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$14.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$594$-6,114+$2,549+$522
+2.5%$14.35 (≤1σ, normal week)$-36$-6,026+$2,636-$108
+5%$14.70 (1.0σ)$-666$-5,939+$2,724-$738
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (4.7σ)$-11,538$-4,947+$3,716-$10,278
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.29, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,663
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,663
− CC assignment net of premium (18 × $14): -$5,320
+ Conservative CC premium (7 × $20): +$28
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,292 (+$3,370 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,392, the opportunity cost of earning $2,546/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,992, position total $-4,921 (+$3,741 vs today)
100% normal24 × $13.5017 Jul7d3.4%63%78%$1,200$5,143+$2,597$7,885
Sell 24 × $13.50 3.4% OTM over spot $13.06 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.54 mid)
= $1,200 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,143/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $13.50)
63%
Breach risk
37%
POP (stays ≤ $14.04)
74%
EV / mo
+$1,339
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo)  ·  69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without)  ·  ~14.7 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $3,556
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
60%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$169
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$17 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.81/sh now → $0.57 mid-life (likely $0.74–$1.07)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.07/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,788 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (24 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1424 Jul 202610d left+$0.31/sh+$738
cycle +$1,938
[+$506…+$672] · 100% credit
69%
surv 53%
-$5,818 NOT
cap gain +$2,844
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1431 Jul 202618d left+$0.17/sh+$417
cycle +$1,617
[-$22…+$254] · 73% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$4,212 NOT
cap gain +$4,450
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1424 Jul 202610d left+$0.11/sh+$253
cycle +$1,453
[-$70…+$128] · 60% credit
73%
surv 61%
-$5,402 NOT
cap gain +$3,261
Max even-money escape in the band~$1531 Jul 202618d left+$0.02/sh+$37
cycle +$1,237
[-$489…-$154] · 14% credit
78%
surv 72%
-$3,567 NOT
cap gain +$5,095
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1731 Jul 202618d left-$0.40/sh-$956
cycle +$244
[-$1,836…-$1,270]
91%
surv 90%
+$564 SAFE
cap gain +$9,227
budget: banked $1,200 debit $956 (80% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$244 cash · rolled 24 ct earn ≈ $688/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$5,143/mo
vs 50% target ($2,491/mo)+106%
vs normal income ($4,982/mo)103% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,693/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.29: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$7,885
… as % of IC ($9,350)84.3%
… as % of ML ($26,850)29.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.6 mo
Surgical close (24 ct)$-8,412
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $14.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $13.37Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$13-14.04
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $14.04
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$13.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,200$-6,557+$2,106+$1,104
+2.5%$13.84 (≤1σ, normal week)$390$-6,675+$1,988+$294
+5%$14.18 (≤1σ, normal week)$-420$-6,793+$1,870-$516
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (4.7σ)$-16,176$-9,165-$502-$14,496
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.29, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,663
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,663
− CC assignment net of premium (24 × $13.50): -$7,885
+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $20): +$4
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,881 (+$781 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,981, the opportunity cost of earning $5,143/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,448, position total $-8,401 (+$262 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on CLSK are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (9 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.820 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$8,663 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $100

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$147d17 Jul 2026$0.3318/25$2,546$2,13073%79%+$836-$5,32056.9%$-5,292 (vs do-nothing $-5,392)
$1414d24 Jul 2026$0.5721/25$2,565$2,13269%77%+$702-$5,70361.0%$-5,687 (vs do-nothing $-5,787)
$1421d31 Jul 2026$0.7923/25$2,596$2,15266%76%+$597-$5,74061.4%$-5,732 (vs do-nothing $-5,832)
$13.507d17 Jul 2026$0.5012/25$2,571$2,19063%74%+$669-$3,94342.2%$-3,891 (vs do-nothing $-3,991)
$13.5014d24 Jul 2026$0.7616/25$2,606$2,20261%73%+$614-$4,84151.8%$-4,805 (vs do-nothing $-4,905)
$13.5021d31 Jul 2026$0.9918/25$2,546$2,13060%72%+$528-$5,03253.8%$-5,004 (vs do-nothing $-5,104)
$1321d31 Jul 2026$1.2015/25$2,571$2,17354%69%+$426-$4,62849.5%$-4,588 (vs do-nothing $-4,688)
$1314d24 Jul 2026$0.9912/25$2,546$2,16552%69%+$493-$3,95542.3%$-3,903 (vs do-nothing $-4,003)
$137d17 Jul 2026$0.738/25$2,503$2,14551%69%+$505-$2,84430.4%$-2,776 (vs do-nothing $-2,876)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0  |  2026-07-10 03:38