FORTRESS FIGHT: CLSK @ $13.01

BE SS: $20.74  |  CC-SS: $17.83  |  25 contracts (2,500 sh)  |  2026-07-10 10:41 |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

CLSK @ $13.01   UNDERWATER $7.73 (37.3% below BE SS)

25 contracts (2,500 sh)  |  BE SS: $20.74  |  CC-SS: $17.83  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$26,850(ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500
Normal income ref$4,607/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$516/mo
Unrealized P&L$-10,025fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,304/mo
HEDGE COVER
$516/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$4,607/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
5.8 mo to earn back $26,850
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $17.83 (probe: $18.5C 14d) brings only $54/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; CC-SS ratchets down as premium accrues.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 52 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 40 · %B 20 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.76 (+44%) · daily UBB $18.89 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 20 contracts at $14 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 74%, breach 26%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,304/mo); it brings $2,400/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 18 × $13/7d for $4,783/mo, but breach risk rises to 48% (+22pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 25 × $16/7d (95% survival, $536/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $7,091 (76% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $21, recoverable in 1.5 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 20 contracts realizes $-8,060 and cuts bleed by $412/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 20 × $14, 74% survival, $2,400/mo (E[net] $566/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d20 × $1474%$2,400$566

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $566/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 20 × $14 (primary), 74% survival, breach 26%, $2,400/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $14.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 82% (breach 26% → 18%) for $857/mo less (36% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $14.50 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect CLSK to stay flat-to-down near term.
CLSK  spot $13.01 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge25 × $1617 Jul7d23.0%95%11%$125$536-$1,864$4,439
Sell 25 × $16 23.0% OTM over spot $13.01 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.06 mid)
= $125 credit for the 7d cycle → $536/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $16)
95%
Breach risk
5%
POP (stays ≤ $16.05)
95%
EV / mo
+$302
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.7] median  ·  49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without)  ·  ~1.8 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-936
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
6%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,529
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$18 @ 78% POP
73% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.94/sh now → $0.66 mid-life (likely $0.50–$0.84)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.61/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 177 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (25 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1624 Jul 202610d left+$0.38/sh+$947
cycle +$1,072
[+$994…+$1,371] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$2,846 NOT
cap gain +$7,179
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1624 Jul 202610d left+$0.17/sh+$419
cycle +$544
[+$378…+$792] · 99% credit
71%
surv 60%
-$2,373 NOT
cap gain +$7,652
Max even-money escape in the band~$1831 Jul 202618d left+$0.03/sh+$65
cycle +$190
[-$58…+$464] · 71% credit
78%
surv 73%
+$336 SAFE
cap gain +$10,361
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$536/mo
vs 50% target ($2,304/mo)-77%
vs normal income ($4,607/mo)12% covered
Net income (after hedge)$20/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $16 is $2 below CC-SS $17.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$4,439
… as % of IC ($9,350)47.5%
… as % of ML ($26,850)16.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.0 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)$-10,038
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $16.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.84Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$16-16.05
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $16.05
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$16.00 (1.8σ)$125$-3,793+$6,232+$25
+2.5%$16.40 (2.1σ)$-875$-3,976+$6,049-$975
+5%$16.80 (2.3σ)$-1,875$-4,159+$5,866-$1,975
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (4.7σ)$-11,725$-5,961+$4,064-$9,975
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.83, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,025
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,836
− CC assignment net of premium (25 × $16): -$4,439
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,628 (+$5,397 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-89 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,539, the opportunity cost of earning $536/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,775, position total $-5,056 (+$4,969 vs today)
🛡 safe yield25 × $15.5017 Jul7d19.1%92%16%$200$857-$1,543$5,614
Sell 25 × $15.50 19.1% OTM over spot $13.01 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.08 mid)
= $200 credit for the 7d cycle → $857/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $15.50)
92%
Breach risk
8%
POP (stays ≤ $15.59)
93%
EV / mo
+$444
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-4.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo)  ·  58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without)  ·  ~2.7 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $28
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
10%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,372
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$17 @ 79% POP
74% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.89/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.53–$0.90)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 306 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (25 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1624 Jul 202610d left+$0.36/sh+$900
cycle +$1,100
[+$846…+$1,269] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$3,839 NOT
cap gain +$6,186
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1624 Jul 202610d left+$0.15/sh+$375
cycle +$575
[+$262…+$663] · 92% credit
71%
surv 61%
-$3,364 NOT
cap gain +$6,661
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1731 Jul 202618d left+$0.12/sh+$307
cycle +$507
[+$108…+$609] · 84% credit
76%
surv 70%
-$1,389 NOT
cap gain +$8,636
Max even-money escape in the band~$1731 Jul 202618d left+$0.00/sh+$0
cycle +$200
[-$258…+$268] · 51% credit
79%
surv 74%
-$674 NOT
cap gain +$9,351
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$857/mo
vs 50% target ($2,304/mo)-63%
vs normal income ($4,607/mo)19% covered
Net income (after hedge)$342/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$5,614
… as % of IC ($9,350)60.0%
… as % of ML ($26,850)20.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.2 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)$-10,038
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $15.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.35Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$15-15.59
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $15.59
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$15.50 (1.5σ)$200$-4,739+$5,286+$100
+2.5%$15.89 (1.8σ)$-769$-4,916+$5,109-$869
+5%$16.28 (2.0σ)$-1,738$-5,094+$4,931-$1,838
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (4.7σ)$-12,900$-7,136+$2,889-$11,150
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.83, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,025
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,836
− CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15.50): -$5,614
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,803 (+$4,222 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-89 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,714, the opportunity cost of earning $857/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,950, position total $-6,231 (+$3,794 vs today)
33% normal ← lean20 × $14.5017 Jul7d11.5%82%37%$360$1,543-$857$6,291
Sell 20 × $14.50 11.5% OTM over spot $13.01 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.20 mid)
= $360 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,543/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $14.50)
82%
Breach risk
18%
POP (stays ≤ $14.70)
85%
EV / mo
+$489
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo)  ·  58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without)  ·  ~6.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $770
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
27%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$771
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$17 @ 83% POP
80% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.80/sh now → $0.57 mid-life (likely $0.56–$0.90)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 819 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (20 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1424 Jul 202610d left+$0.32/sh+$647
cycle +$1,007
[+$541…+$783] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$5,955 NOT
cap gain +$4,070
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1531 Jul 202618d left+$0.23/sh+$451
cycle +$811
[+$257…+$570] · 96% credit
74%
surv 66%
-$4,128 NOT
cap gain +$5,897
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1524 Jul 202610d left+$0.12/sh+$232
cycle +$592
[+$74…+$328] · 86% credit
72%
surv 61%
-$5,369 NOT
cap gain +$4,656
Max even-money escape in the band~$1631 Jul 202618d left+$0.07/sh+$138
cycle +$498
[-$107…+$217] · 55% credit
77%
surv 71%
-$3,421 NOT
cap gain +$6,604
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1731 Jul 202618d left-$0.16/sh-$311
cycle +$49
[-$665…-$274] · 9% credit
83%
surv 80%
-$1,827 NOT
cap gain +$8,198
budget: banked $360 debit $311 (86% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$49 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $1,367/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,543/mo
vs 50% target ($2,304/mo)-33%
vs normal income ($4,607/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,056/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$6,291
… as % of IC ($9,350)67.3%
… as % of ML ($26,850)23.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.4 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)$-8,060
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $14.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $14.36Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$14-14.70
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $14.70
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$14.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$360$-6,602+$3,423+$280
+2.5%$14.86 (1.1σ)$-365$-6,586+$3,439-$445
+5%$15.23 (1.4σ)$-1,090$-6,571+$3,454-$1,170
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (4.7σ)$-12,120$-6,706+$3,319-$10,720
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.83, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,025
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,836
− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $14.50): -$6,291
+ Conservative CC premium (5 × $20): +$20
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,460 (+$3,565 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-89 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,371, the opportunity cost of earning $1,543/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,160, position total $-6,421 (+$3,604 vs today)
🎯 50% normal20 × $1417 Jul7d7.6%74%40%$560$2,400$7,091
Sell 20 × $14 7.6% OTM over spot $13.01 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.30 mid)
= $560 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,400/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $14)
74%
Breach risk
26%
POP (stays ≤ $14.30)
79%
EV / mo
+$575
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-3.8] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung  ·  56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without)  ·  ~10.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $1,857
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
40%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$511
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$17 @ 86% POP
84% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.76/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.62–$0.91)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.26/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,199 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (20 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1424 Jul 202610d left+$0.31/sh+$612
cycle +$1,172
[+$468…+$648] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$6,811 NOT
cap gain +$3,214
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1531 Jul 202618d left+$0.20/sh+$393
cycle +$953
[+$144…+$396] · 90% credit
74%
surv 67%
-$5,008 NOT
cap gain +$5,017
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1424 Jul 202610d left+$0.10/sh+$199
cycle +$759
[-$2…+$199] · 74% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$6,223 NOT
cap gain +$3,802
Max even-money escape in the band~$1531 Jul 202618d left+$0.04/sh+$87
cycle +$647
[-$224…+$50] · 32% credit
77%
surv 72%
-$4,292 NOT
cap gain +$5,733
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1731 Jul 202618d left-$0.24/sh-$487
cycle +$73
[-$952…-$580] · 1% credit
86%
surv 84%
-$1,803 NOT
cap gain +$8,222
budget: banked $560 debit $487 (87% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$73 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $972/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,400/mo
vs 50% target ($2,304/mo)+4%
vs normal income ($4,607/mo)52% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,913/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$7,091
… as % of IC ($9,350)75.8%
… as % of ML ($26,850)26.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.5 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)$-8,060
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $14.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $13.86Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$14-14.30
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $14.30
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$14.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$560$-7,423+$2,602+$480
+2.5%$14.35 (≤1σ, normal week)$-140$-7,408+$2,617-$220
+5%$14.70 (1.0σ)$-840$-7,393+$2,632-$920
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (4.7σ)$-12,920$-7,506+$2,519-$11,520
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.83, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,025
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,836
− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $14): -$7,091
+ Conservative CC premium (5 × $20): +$20
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,260 (+$2,765 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-89 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,171, the opportunity cost of earning $2,400/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,960, position total $-7,221 (+$2,804 vs today)
100% normal18 × $1317 Jul7d-0.1%52%99+%$1,116$4,783+$2,383$7,570
Sell 18 × $13 0.1% ITM over spot $13.01 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.65 mid)
= $1,116 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,783/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $13)
52%
Breach risk
48%
POP (stays ≤ $13.65)
67%
EV / mo
+$465
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
100%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
+$258
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$16 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.67/sh now → $0.48 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.62/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.14/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (18 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1324 Jul 202610d left+$0.27/sh+$490
cycle +$1,606
67%
surv 53%
-$8,391 NOT
cap gain +$1,634
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1424 Jul 202610d left+$0.07/sh+$117
cycle +$1,233
72%
surv 63%
-$7,763 NOT
cap gain +$2,262
Max even-money escape in the band~$1431 Jul 202618d left+$0.14/sh+$248
cycle +$1,364
75%
surv 68%
-$6,611 NOT
cap gain +$3,414
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1631 Jul 202618d left-$0.31/sh-$564
cycle +$552
90%
surv 89%
-$2,317 NOT
cap gain +$7,708
budget: banked $1,116 debit $564 (51% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$552 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $490/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,783/mo
vs 50% target ($2,304/mo)+108%
vs normal income ($4,607/mo)104% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,307/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $13 is $5 below CC-SS $17.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$7,570
… as % of IC ($9,350)81.0%
… as % of ML ($26,850)28.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.6 mo
Surgical close (18 ct)$-7,272
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.62 collected) or spot ≥ $13.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $12.87Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$13-13.65
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $13.65
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$13.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,116$-8,881+$1,144+$1,044
+2.5%$13.32 (≤1σ, normal week)$531$-8,823+$1,202+$459
+5%$13.65 (≤1σ, normal week)$-54$-8,744+$1,281-$126
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (4.7σ)$-12,816$-7,542+$2,483-$11,556
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.83, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,025
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,836
− CC assignment net of premium (18 × $13): -$7,570
+ Conservative CC premium (7 × $20): +$28
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,731 (+$2,294 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-89 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,642, the opportunity cost of earning $4,783/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,252, position total $-7,505 (+$2,520 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on CLSK are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (9 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.817 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$9,836 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-89

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$147d17 Jul 2026$0.2820/25$2,400$1,91374%79%+$575-$7,09175.8%$-7,260 (vs do-nothing $-7,171)
$1414d24 Jul 2026$0.5022/25$2,357$1,85969%77%+$460-$7,31678.2%$-7,493 (vs do-nothing $-7,404)
$1421d31 Jul 2026$0.7123/25$2,333$1,82967%75%+$397-$7,16676.6%$-7,347 (vs do-nothing $-7,258)
$13.507d17 Jul 2026$0.4213/25$2,340$1,89364%73%+$368-$5,07754.3%$-5,218 (vs do-nothing $-5,129)
$13.5014d24 Jul 2026$0.6617/25$2,404$1,93462%72%+$342-$6,23166.6%$-6,389 (vs do-nothing $-6,299)
$13.5021d31 Jul 2026$0.8719/25$2,361$1,88061%72%+$293-$6,56670.2%$-6,731 (vs do-nothing $-6,642)
$1321d31 Jul 2026$1.0716/25$2,446$1,98254%69%+$216-$6,00964.3%$-6,162 (vs do-nothing $-6,073)
$1314d24 Jul 2026$0.8713/25$2,424$1,97753%68%+$252-$5,14255.0%$-5,283 (vs do-nothing $-5,194)
$137d17 Jul 2026$0.629/25$2,391$1,96752%67%+$232-$3,78540.5%$-3,910 (vs do-nothing $-3,821)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-10 10:41