25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.83 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $4,607/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $516/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-10,025 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 20 × $14 | 74% | $2,400 | $566 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 25 × $16 | 17 Jul | 7d | 23.0% | 95% | 11% | $125 | $536 | -$1,864 | $4,439 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $16 23.0% OTM over spot $13.01 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.06 mid) = $125 credit for the 7d cycle → $536/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $16.05) 95% EV / mo +$302 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.7] median · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~1.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-936 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,529 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.94/sh now → $0.66 mid-life (likely $0.50–$0.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 177 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $2 below CC-SS $17.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $16.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.83, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,836 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $16): -$4,439 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,628 (+$5,397 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-89 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,539, the opportunity cost of earning $536/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,775, position total $-5,056 (+$4,969 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $15.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 19.1% | 92% | 16% | $200 | $857 | -$1,543 | $5,614 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $15.50 19.1% OTM over spot $13.01 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.08 mid) = $200 credit for the 7d cycle → $857/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $15.59) 93% EV / mo +$444 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-4.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~2.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $28 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,372 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.89/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.53–$0.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 306 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $15.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.83, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,836 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15.50): -$5,614 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,803 (+$4,222 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-89 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,714, the opportunity cost of earning $857/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,950, position total $-6,231 (+$3,794 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 11.5% | 82% | 37% | $360 | $1,543 | -$857 | $6,291 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $14.50 11.5% OTM over spot $13.01 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.20 mid) = $360 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,543/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $14.70) 85% EV / mo +$489 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~6.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $770 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$771 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.80/sh now → $0.57 mid-life (likely $0.56–$0.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 819 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $14.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.83, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,836 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $14.50): -$6,291 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $20): +$20 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,460 (+$3,565 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-89 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,371, the opportunity cost of earning $1,543/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,160, position total $-6,421 (+$3,604 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $14 | 17 Jul | 7d | 7.6% | 74% | 40% | $560 | $2,400 | — | $7,091 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $14 7.6% OTM over spot $13.01 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.30 mid) = $560 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $14.30) 79% EV / mo +$575 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-3.8] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~10.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,857 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$511 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.76/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.62–$0.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,199 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $14.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.83, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,836 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $14): -$7,091 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $20): +$20 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,260 (+$2,765 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-89 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,171, the opportunity cost of earning $2,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,960, position total $-7,221 (+$2,804 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $13 | 17 Jul | 7d | -0.1% | 52% | 99+% | $1,116 | $4,783 | +$2,383 | $7,570 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $13 0.1% ITM over spot $13.01 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.65 mid) = $1,116 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,783/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $13.65) 67% EV / mo +$465 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$258 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.67/sh now → $0.48 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.62/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $5 below CC-SS $17.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.62 collected) or spot ≥ $13.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.83, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,836 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $13): -$7,570 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $20): +$28 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,731 (+$2,294 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-89 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,642, the opportunity cost of earning $4,783/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,252, position total $-7,505 (+$2,520 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.817 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$9,836 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-89
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.28 | 20/25 | $2,400 | $1,913 | 74% | 79% | +$575 | -$7,091 | 75.8% | $-7,260 (vs do-nothing $-7,171) |
| $14 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 22/25 | $2,357 | $1,859 | 69% | 77% | +$460 | -$7,316 | 78.2% | $-7,493 (vs do-nothing $-7,404) |
| $14 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 23/25 | $2,333 | $1,829 | 67% | 75% | +$397 | -$7,166 | 76.6% | $-7,347 (vs do-nothing $-7,258) |
| $13.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.42 | 13/25 | $2,340 | $1,893 | 64% | 73% | +$368 | -$5,077 | 54.3% | $-5,218 (vs do-nothing $-5,129) |
| $13.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.66 | 17/25 | $2,404 | $1,934 | 62% | 72% | +$342 | -$6,231 | 66.6% | $-6,389 (vs do-nothing $-6,299) |
| $13.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.87 | 19/25 | $2,361 | $1,880 | 61% | 72% | +$293 | -$6,566 | 70.2% | $-6,731 (vs do-nothing $-6,642) |
| $13 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.07 | 16/25 | $2,446 | $1,982 | 54% | 69% | +$216 | -$6,009 | 64.3% | $-6,162 (vs do-nothing $-6,073) |
| $13 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.87 | 13/25 | $2,424 | $1,977 | 53% | 68% | +$252 | -$5,142 | 55.0% | $-5,283 (vs do-nothing $-5,194) |
| $13 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 9/25 | $2,391 | $1,967 | 52% | 67% | +$232 | -$3,785 | 40.5% | $-3,910 (vs do-nothing $-3,821) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.