25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $16.89 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $3,750/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $475/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,662 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 22 × $14 | 79% | $1,886 | $132 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 23 × $15.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 22.1% | 93% | 15% | $115 | $493 | -$1,393 | $3,084 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $15.50 22.1% OTM over spot $12.69 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.07 mid) = $115 credit for the 7d cycle → $493/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $15.56) 93% EV / mo +$137 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-3.1] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-522 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,400 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 74% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.93/sh now → $0.66 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 225 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $1 below CC-SS $16.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $15.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,662 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,559 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $15.50): -$3,084 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $20): +$8 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,179 (+$5,483 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,176, the opportunity cost of earning $493/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,360, position total $-3,667 (+$4,995 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 23 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 14.3% | 85% | 31% | $299 | $1,281 | -$604 | $5,200 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $14.50 14.3% OTM over spot $12.69 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid) = $299 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,281/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $14.66) 87% EV / mo +$300 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-2.9] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~4.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $514 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,066 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.84/sh now → $0.59 mid-life (likely $0.53–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 641 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $2 below CC-SS $16.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $14.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,662 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,559 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $14.50): -$5,200 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $20): +$8 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,295 (+$3,367 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,292, the opportunity cost of earning $1,281/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,476, position total $-5,783 (+$2,879 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 22 × $14 | 17 Jul | 7d | 10.3% | 79% | 33% | $440 | $1,886 | — | $5,920 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $14 10.3% OTM over spot $12.69 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.24 mid) = $440 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,886/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $14.24) 82% EV / mo +$324 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.5] median · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~6.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $949 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$796 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.79/sh now → $0.56 mid-life (likely $0.58–$0.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 993 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $16.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $14.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,662 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,559 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $14): -$5,920 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $20): +$12 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,011 (+$2,651 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,008, the opportunity cost of earning $1,886/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,010, position total $-6,313 (+$2,349 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $13 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.4% | 60% | 84% | $912 | $3,909 | +$2,023 | $6,481 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $13 2.4% OTM over spot $12.69 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.52 mid) = $912 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,909/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $13.52) 71% EV / mo +$402 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-2.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~18.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,218 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$40 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.71/sh now → $0.50 mid-life (likely $0.67–$0.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,972 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $13 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $4 below CC-SS $16.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.48 collected) or spot ≥ $13.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,662 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,559 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $13): -$6,481 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $20): +$24 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,560 (+$2,103 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,557, the opportunity cost of earning $3,909/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,013, position total $-6,304 (+$2,358 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.815 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,559 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.20 | 22/25 | $1,886 | $1,427 | 79% | 82% | +$324 | -$5,920 | 63.3% | $-6,011 (vs do-nothing $-6,008) |
| $14 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.38 | 24/25 | $1,954 | $1,485 | 74% | 79% | +$309 | -$6,026 | 64.5% | $-6,125 (vs do-nothing $-6,122) |
| $13.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 14/25 | $1,920 | $1,507 | 70% | 78% | +$295 | -$4,299 | 46.0% | $-4,358 (vs do-nothing $-4,355) |
| $13.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 17/25 | $1,894 | $1,465 | 67% | 76% | +$229 | -$4,881 | 52.2% | $-4,952 (vs do-nothing $-4,949) |
| $13.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.69 | 20/25 | $1,971 | $1,525 | 65% | 78% | +$173 | -$5,402 | 57.8% | $-5,485 (vs do-nothing $-5,482) |
| $13 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.48 | 10/25 | $2,057 | $1,667 | 60% | 71% | +$212 | -$3,411 | 36.5% | $-3,454 (vs do-nothing $-3,451) |
| $13 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.66 | 14/25 | $1,980 | $1,567 | 59% | 72% | +$59 | -$4,523 | 48.4% | $-4,582 (vs do-nothing $-4,579) |
| $13 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 16/25 | $1,943 | $1,519 | 59% | 71% | +$68 | -$4,866 | 52.0% | $-4,933 (vs do-nothing $-4,930) |
| $12.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.90 | 15/25 | $1,929 | $1,510 | 52% | 69% | $-330 | -$5,236 | 56.0% | $-5,299 (vs do-nothing $-5,296) |
| $12.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.89 | 10/25 | $1,907 | $1,517 | 50% | 67% | +$32 | -$3,501 | 37.4% | $-3,544 (vs do-nothing $-3,541) |
| $12.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.69 | 7/25 | $2,070 | $1,697 | 48% | 65% | +$95 | -$2,591 | 27.7% | $-2,622 (vs do-nothing $-2,619) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.