FORTRESS FIGHT: CLSK @ $12.64

BE SS: $20.74  |  CC-SS: $16.84  |  25 contracts (2,500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-10 22:25

CLSK @ $12.64   UNDERWATER $8.10 (39.1% below BE SS)

25 contracts (2,500 sh)  |  BE SS: $20.74  |  CC-SS: $16.84  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$26,850(ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500
Normal income ref$3,857/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$475/mo
Unrealized P&L$-8,662fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$1,929/mo
HEDGE COVER
$475/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$3,857/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
2.4 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
7.0 mo to earn back $26,850
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $16.84 (probe: $16.5C 14d) brings only $214/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; CC-SS ratchets down as premium accrues.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 49 (live) · RSI 48 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 39 · %B 19 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.75 (+48%) · daily UBB $18.87 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 24 contracts at $14 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 80%, breach 20%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($1,929/mo); it brings $1,954/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 20 × $13/7d for $4,029/mo, but breach risk rises to 39% (+19pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 14 × $15/7d (91% survival, $480/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $6,370 (68% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $21, recoverable in 1.7 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 24 contracts realizes $-8,352 and cuts bleed by $456/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 24 × $14, 80% survival, $1,954/mo (E[net] $168/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d24 × $1480%$1,954$168

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $168/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 24 × $14 (primary), 80% survival, breach 20%, $1,954/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $14.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 86% (breach 20% → 14%) for $673/mo less (34% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
CLSK  spot $12.64 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge14 × $1517 Jul7d18.7%91%19%$112$480-$1,474$2,470
Sell 14 × $15 18.7% OTM over spot $12.64 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.10 mid)
= $112 credit for the 7d cycle → $480/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $15.10)
92%
EV / mo
+$190
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.6] median  ·  61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without)  ·  ~3.0 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-455
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
11%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$753
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$17 @ 78% POP
74% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.87/sh now → $0.62 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.92)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.54/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 327 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (14 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1524 Jul 202610d left+$0.31/sh+$440
cycle +$552
[+$405…+$635] · 100% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$3,258 NOT
cap gain +$5,405
Max even-money escape in the band~$1631 Jul 202618d left+$0.10/sh+$139
cycle +$251
[+$13…+$293] · 77% credit
76%
surv 69%
-$788 NOT
cap gain +$7,875
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1624 Jul 202610d left+$0.01/sh+$12
cycle +$124
[-$92…+$135] · 50% credit
75%
surv 66%
-$1,933 NOT
cap gain +$6,729
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1731 Jul 202618d left-$0.08/sh-$108
cycle +$4
[-$278…+$32] · 28% credit
78%
surv 74%
-$16 NOT
cap gain +$8,646
budget: banked $112 debit $108 (97% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4 cash · rolled 14 ct earn ≈ $1,261/mo while parked; 11 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$480/mo
vs 50% target ($1,929/mo)-75%
vs normal income ($3,857/mo)12% covered
Net income (after hedge)$67/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $15 is $2 below CC-SS $16.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$2,470
… as % of IC ($9,350)26.4%
… as % of ML ($26,850)9.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.6 mo
Surgical close (14 ct)$-4,879
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $15.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $14.85Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$15-15.10
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $15.10
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$15.00 (1.5σ)$112$-3,698+$4,964+$56
+2.5%$15.37 (1.7σ)$-413$-3,459+$5,204-$469
+5%$15.75 (2.0σ)$-938$-3,220+$5,443-$994
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (5.1σ)$-7,924$-853+$7,810-$6,944
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.84, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,662
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,566
− CC assignment net of premium (14 × $15): -$2,470
+ Conservative CC premium (11 × $20): +$44
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,522 (+$6,140 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,526, the opportunity cost of earning $480/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,138, position total $-1,307 (+$7,355 vs today)
🛡 safe yield25 × $1517 Jul7d18.7%91%19%$200$857-$1,097$4,411
Sell 25 × $15 18.7% OTM over spot $12.64 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.10 mid)
= $200 credit for the 7d cycle → $857/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $15.10)
92%
EV / mo
+$339
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.1] median  ·  60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without)  ·  ~2.8 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $103
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
11%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,345
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$17 @ 78% POP
74% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.87/sh now → $0.62 mid-life (likely $0.52–$0.95)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.54/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 336 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (25 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1524 Jul 202610d left+$0.31/sh+$786
cycle +$986
[+$721…+$1,072] · 100% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$2,868 NOT
cap gain +$5,795
Max even-money escape in the band~$1631 Jul 202618d left+$0.10/sh+$249
cycle +$449
[-$7…+$488] · 73% credit
76%
surv 69%
-$634 NOT
cap gain +$8,029
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1624 Jul 202610d left+$0.01/sh+$22
cycle +$222
[-$191…+$215] · 52% credit
75%
surv 66%
-$1,880 NOT
cap gain +$6,783
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1731 Jul 202618d left-$0.08/sh-$193
cycle +$7
[-$548…+$45] · 29% credit
78%
surv 74%
-$57 NOT
cap gain +$8,605
budget: banked $200 debit $193 (97% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$7 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $2,253/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$857/mo
vs 50% target ($1,929/mo)-56%
vs normal income ($3,857/mo)22% covered
Net income (after hedge)$382/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $15 is $2 below CC-SS $16.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$4,411
… as % of IC ($9,350)47.2%
… as % of ML ($26,850)16.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.1 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)$-8,712
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $15.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $14.85Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$15-15.10
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $15.10
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$15.00 (1.5σ)$200$-3,654+$5,008+$100
+2.5%$15.37 (1.7σ)$-737$-3,827+$4,835-$837
+5%$15.75 (2.0σ)$-1,675$-4,001+$4,662-$1,775
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (5.1σ)$-14,150$-6,309+$2,354-$12,400
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.84, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,662
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,566
− CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15): -$4,411
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,507 (+$4,156 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,511, the opportunity cost of earning $857/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,175, position total $-5,388 (+$3,274 vs today)
33% normal23 × $14.5017 Jul7d14.7%86%28%$299$1,281-$673$5,093
Sell 23 × $14.50 14.7% OTM over spot $12.64 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.15 mid)
= $299 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,281/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $14.50)
86%
Breach risk
14%
POP (stays ≤ $14.64)
88%
EV / mo
+$463
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo)  ·  62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without)  ·  ~4.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $661
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
20%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,048
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$16 @ 79% POP
75% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.83/sh now → $0.59 mid-life (likely $0.51–$0.87)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 586 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (23 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1424 Jul 202610d left+$0.30/sh+$684
cycle +$983
[+$607…+$984] · 100% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$3,881 NOT
cap gain +$4,781
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1524 Jul 202610d left+$0.20/sh+$459
cycle +$758
[+$355…+$711] · 99% credit
71%
surv 59%
-$3,373 NOT
cap gain +$5,289
Max even-money escape in the band~$1631 Jul 202618d left+$0.07/sh+$169
cycle +$468
[-$61…+$388] · 68% credit
76%
surv 70%
-$1,626 NOT
cap gain +$7,037
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1631 Jul 202618d left-$0.10/sh-$219
cycle +$80
[-$527…-$9] · 24% credit
79%
surv 75%
-$995 NOT
cap gain +$7,667
budget: banked $299 debit $219 (73% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$80 cash · rolled 23 ct earn ≈ $1,880/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,281/mo
vs 50% target ($1,929/mo)-34%
vs normal income ($3,857/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$817/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $14.50 is $2 below CC-SS $16.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$5,093
… as % of IC ($9,350)54.5%
… as % of ML ($26,850)19.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.3 mo
Surgical close (23 ct)$-8,004
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $14.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $14.36Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$14-14.64
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $14.64
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$14.50 (1.2σ)$299$-4,566+$4,097+$207
+2.5%$14.86 (1.4σ)$-535$-4,661+$4,002-$627
+5%$15.23 (1.6σ)$-1,369$-4,756+$3,906-$1,461
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (5.1σ)$-14,053$-6,352+$2,311-$12,443
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.84, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,662
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,566
− CC assignment net of premium (23 × $14.50): -$5,093
+ Conservative CC premium (2 × $20): +$8
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,181 (+$3,481 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,185, the opportunity cost of earning $1,281/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,476, position total $-5,681 (+$2,981 vs today)
🎯 50% normal24 × $1417 Jul7d10.8%80%31%$456$1,954$6,370
Sell 24 × $14 10.8% OTM over spot $12.64 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.21 mid)
= $456 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,954/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $14)
80%
Breach risk
20%
POP (stays ≤ $14.21)
83%
EV / mo
+$486
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo)  ·  58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without)  ·  ~6.7 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $1,419
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
31%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$875
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$15 @ 80% POP
75% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.78/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.55–$0.89)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.36/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 940 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (24 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1424 Jul 202610d left+$0.28/sh+$674
cycle +$1,130
[+$543…+$838] · 100% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$4,757 NOT
cap gain +$3,905
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1424 Jul 202610d left+$0.18/sh+$432
cycle +$888
[+$290…+$571] · 99% credit
71%
surv 60%
-$4,266 NOT
cap gain +$4,396
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1531 Jul 202618d left+$0.26/sh+$621
cycle +$1,077
[+$424…+$779] · 99% credit
74%
surv 65%
-$3,058 NOT
cap gain +$5,604
Max even-money escape in the band~$1531 Jul 202618d left+$0.05/sh+$116
cycle +$572
[-$181…+$212] · 47% credit
77%
surv 71%
-$2,545 NOT
cap gain +$6,118
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1524 Jul 202610d left-$0.15/sh-$372
cycle +$84
[-$702…-$326] · 5% credit
80%
surv 75%
-$3,032 NOT
cap gain +$5,630
budget: banked $456 debit $372 (82% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$84 cash · rolled 24 ct earn ≈ $2,876/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,954/mo
vs 50% target ($1,929/mo)+1%
vs normal income ($3,857/mo)51% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,485/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $16.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$6,370
… as % of IC ($9,350)68.1%
… as % of ML ($26,850)23.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.7 mo
Surgical close (24 ct)$-8,352
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $14.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $13.86Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$14-14.21
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $14.21
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$14.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$456$-5,432+$3,231+$360
+2.5%$14.35 (1.1σ)$-384$-5,558+$3,104-$480
+5%$14.70 (1.3σ)$-1,224$-5,685+$2,977-$1,320
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (5.1σ)$-15,720$-7,949+$714-$14,040
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.84, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,662
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,566
− CC assignment net of premium (24 × $14): -$6,370
+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $20): +$4
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,463 (+$2,200 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,466, the opportunity cost of earning $1,954/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,944, position total $-7,153 (+$1,509 vs today)
100% normal20 × $1317 Jul7d2.8%61%81%$940$4,029+$2,074$6,749
Sell 20 × $13 2.8% OTM over spot $12.64 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.47 mid)
= $940 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,029/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $13)
61%
Breach risk
39%
POP (stays ≤ $13.47)
71%
EV / mo
+$635
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo)  ·  67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without)  ·  ~16.9 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $2,528
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
66%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$48
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$16 @ 92% POP
91% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.70/sh now → $0.49 mid-life (likely $0.66–$0.96)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.02/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,974 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $13 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (20 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1324 Jul 202610d left+$0.25/sh+$498
cycle +$1,438
[+$322…+$438] · 100% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$6,471 NOT
cap gain +$2,191
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1324 Jul 202610d left+$0.14/sh+$285
cycle +$1,225
[+$95…+$201] · 94% credit
72%
surv 60%
-$5,950 NOT
cap gain +$2,712
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1431 Jul 202618d left+$0.20/sh+$392
cycle +$1,332
[+$119…+$279] · 92% credit
74%
surv 66%
-$4,824 NOT
cap gain +$3,838
Max even-money escape in the band~$1431 Jul 202618d left+$0.00/sh+$4
cycle +$944
[-$394…-$150] · 11% credit
78%
surv 72%
-$4,194 NOT
cap gain +$4,468
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1624 Jul 202610d left-$0.41/sh-$820
cycle +$120
[-$1,542…-$1,074]
92%
surv 91%
-$1,962 NOT
cap gain +$6,701
budget: banked $940 debit $820 (87% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$120 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $505/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,029/mo
vs 50% target ($1,929/mo)+109%
vs normal income ($3,857/mo)104% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,582/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $13 is $4 below CC-SS $16.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$6,749
… as % of IC ($9,350)72.2%
… as % of ML ($26,850)25.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.7 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)$-6,940
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.47 collected) or spot ≥ $13.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $12.87Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$13-13.47
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $13.47
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$13.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$940$-6,969+$1,693+$860
+2.5%$13.32 (≤1σ, normal week)$290$-6,957+$1,706+$210
+5%$13.65 (≤1σ, normal week)$-360$-6,945+$1,718-$440
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (5.1σ)$-14,540$-7,049+$1,614-$13,140
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.84, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,662
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,566
− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $13): -$6,749
+ Conservative CC premium (5 × $20): +$20
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,825 (+$1,838 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,829, the opportunity cost of earning $4,029/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,560, position total $-6,753 (+$1,909 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on CLSK are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (12 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.815 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$8,566 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $4

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$147d17 Jul 2026$0.1924/25$1,954$1,48580%83%+$486-$6,37068.1%$-6,463 (vs do-nothing $-6,466)
$1414d24 Jul 2026$0.3924/25$2,006$1,53675%80%+$529-$5,89063.0%$-5,983 (vs do-nothing $-5,986)
$1421d31 Jul 2026$0.5425/25$1,929$1,45372%78%+$358-$5,76161.6%$-5,857 (vs do-nothing $-5,861)
$13.507d17 Jul 2026$0.3115/25$1,993$1,57572%78%+$440-$4,55148.7%$-4,608 (vs do-nothing $-4,611)
$13.5014d24 Jul 2026$0.5218/25$2,006$1,57068%76%+$410-$5,08454.4%$-5,152 (vs do-nothing $-5,156)
$13.5021d31 Jul 2026$0.7419/25$2,009$1,56766%79%+$424-$4,94852.9%$-5,020 (vs do-nothing $-5,024)
$137d17 Jul 2026$0.4710/25$2,014$1,62561%71%+$317-$3,37436.1%$-3,411 (vs do-nothing $-3,414)
$1314d24 Jul 2026$0.7213/25$2,006$1,59960%72%+$374-$4,06243.4%$-4,110 (vs do-nothing $-4,114)
$1321d31 Jul 2026$0.9015/25$1,929$1,51059%71%+$285-$4,41647.2%$-4,473 (vs do-nothing $-4,476)
$12.5021d31 Jul 2026$0.9015/25$1,929$1,51052%70%$-202-$5,16655.3%$-5,223 (vs do-nothing $-5,226)
$12.5014d24 Jul 2026$0.8611/25$2,027$1,63251%67%+$115-$3,83341.0%$-3,873 (vs do-nothing $-3,877)
$12.507d17 Jul 2026$0.697/25$2,070$1,69749%66%+$210-$2,55827.4%$-2,582 (vs do-nothing $-2,586)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-10 22:25