FORTRESS FIGHT: CLSK @ $12.55

BE SS: $20.74  |  CC-SS: $16.94  |  25 contracts (2,500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-10 22:35

CLSK @ $12.55   UNDERWATER $8.18 (39.5% below BE SS)

25 contracts (2,500 sh)  |  BE SS: $20.74  |  CC-SS: $16.94  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$26,850(ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500
Normal income ref$4,152/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$475/mo
Unrealized P&L$-9,038fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,076/mo
HEDGE COVER
$475/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$4,152/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
2.3 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
6.5 mo to earn back $26,850
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $16.94 (probe: $16.5C 14d) brings only $214/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; CC-SS ratchets down as premium accrues.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 48 (live) · RSI 48 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 38 · %B 18 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.75 (+49%) · daily UBB $18.88 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 18 contracts at $13.50 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 74%, breach 26%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,076/mo); it brings $2,083/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 24 × $13/7d for $4,217/mo, but breach risk rises to 37% (+11pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 16 × $15/7d (92% survival, $480/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $5,705 (61% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $21, recoverable in 1.4 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 18 contracts realizes $-6,543 and cuts bleed by $342/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 18 × $13.50, 74% survival, $2,083/mo (E[net] $376/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d18 × $13.5074%$2,083$376

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $376/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 18 × $13.50 (primary), 74% survival, breach 26%, $2,083/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $14 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 83% (breach 26% → 17%) for $699/mo less (34% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $14 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect CLSK to stay flat-to-down near term.
CLSK  spot $12.55 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge16 × $1517 Jul7d19.5%92%17%$112$480-$1,603$2,991
Sell 16 × $15 19.5% OTM over spot $12.55 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.08 mid)
= $112 credit for the 7d cycle → $480/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
92%
Breach risk
8%
POP (stays ≤ $15.08)
92%
EV / mo
+$209
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.3] median  ·  56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without)  ·  ~2.6 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-474
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
10%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$894
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$16 @ 76% POP
70% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.89/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.50–$0.91)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.56/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 290 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (16 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1524 Jul 202610d left+$0.30/sh+$478
cycle +$590
[+$434…+$706] · 100% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$3,461 NOT
cap gain +$5,577
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1524 Jul 202610d left+$0.12/sh+$189
cycle +$301
[+$79…+$371] · 88% credit
71%
surv 60%
-$2,849 NOT
cap gain +$6,189
Max even-money escape in the band~$1631 Jul 202618d left+$0.08/sh+$126
cycle +$238
[-$35…+$315] · 72% credit
76%
surv 70%
-$886 NOT
cap gain +$8,152
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$480/mo
vs 50% target ($2,076/mo)-77%
vs normal income ($4,152/mo)12% covered
Net income (after hedge)$56/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $15 is $2 below CC-SS $16.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$2,991
… as % of IC ($9,350)32.0%
… as % of ML ($26,850)11.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.7 mo
Surgical close (16 ct)$-5,800
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $15.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $14.85Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$15-15.08
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $15.08
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$15.00 (1.6σ)$112$-3,938+$5,099+$48
+2.5%$15.37 (1.8σ)$-488$-3,779+$5,258-$552
+5%$15.75 (2.1σ)$-1,088$-3,620+$5,418-$1,152
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (5.3σ)$-9,072$-2,165+$6,873-$7,952
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.94, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,038
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,878
− CC assignment net of premium (16 × $15): -$2,991
+ Conservative CC premium (9 × $20): +$36
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,114 (+$5,923 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-59 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,055, the opportunity cost of earning $480/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,888, position total $-2,345 (+$6,693 vs today)
🛡 safe yield25 × $1517 Jul7d19.5%92%17%$175$750-$1,333$4,673
Sell 25 × $15 19.5% OTM over spot $12.55 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.08 mid)
= $175 credit for the 7d cycle → $750/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
92%
Breach risk
8%
POP (stays ≤ $15.08)
92%
EV / mo
+$327
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.4] median  ·  56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without)  ·  ~2.6 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-15
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
10%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,397
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$16 @ 76% POP
70% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.89/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.50–$0.90)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.56/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 288 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (25 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1524 Jul 202610d left+$0.30/sh+$747
cycle +$922
[+$670…+$1,094] · 100% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$3,165 NOT
cap gain +$5,873
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1524 Jul 202610d left+$0.12/sh+$295
cycle +$470
[+$160…+$562] · 88% credit
71%
surv 60%
-$2,715 NOT
cap gain +$6,322
Max even-money escape in the band~$1631 Jul 202618d left+$0.08/sh+$197
cycle +$372
[-$35…+$475] · 73% credit
76%
surv 70%
-$788 NOT
cap gain +$8,250
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$750/mo
vs 50% target ($2,076/mo)-64%
vs normal income ($4,152/mo)18% covered
Net income (after hedge)$275/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $15 is $2 below CC-SS $16.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$4,673
… as % of IC ($9,350)50.0%
… as % of ML ($26,850)17.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.1 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)$-9,063
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $15.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $14.85Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$15-15.08
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $15.08
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$15.00 (1.6σ)$175$-3,911+$5,126+$75
+2.5%$15.37 (1.8σ)$-762$-4,090+$4,948-$862
+5%$15.75 (2.1σ)$-1,700$-4,268+$4,770-$1,800
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (5.3σ)$-14,175$-6,638+$2,400-$12,425
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.94, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,038
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,878
− CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15): -$4,673
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,833 (+$4,205 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-59 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,773, the opportunity cost of earning $750/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,200, position total $-5,693 (+$3,345 vs today)
33% normal ← lean19 × $1417 Jul7d11.5%83%36%$323$1,384-$699$5,262
Sell 19 × $14 11.5% OTM over spot $12.55 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.18 mid)
= $323 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,384/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $14)
83%
Breach risk
17%
POP (stays ≤ $14.19)
85%
EV / mo
+$495
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.8 mo [0.8-3.4] median  ·  58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without)  ·  ~6.0 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $768
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
26%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$748
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$16 @ 80% POP
76% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.80/sh now → $0.56 mid-life (likely $0.56–$0.86)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 793 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (19 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1431 Jul 202618d left+$0.36/sh+$683
cycle +$1,006
[+$533…+$819] · 100% credit
71%
surv 60%
-$4,180 NOT
cap gain +$4,857
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1424 Jul 202610d left+$0.27/sh+$508
cycle +$831
[+$390…+$629] · 100% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$5,256 NOT
cap gain +$3,781
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1424 Jul 202610d left+$0.09/sh+$167
cycle +$490
[+$9…+$249] · 77% credit
71%
surv 61%
-$4,696 NOT
cap gain +$4,341
Max even-money escape in the band~$1531 Jul 202618d left+$0.03/sh+$55
cycle +$378
[-$171…+$119] · 41% credit
77%
surv 71%
-$2,783 NOT
cap gain +$6,254
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1631 Jul 202618d left-$0.11/sh-$211
cycle +$112
[-$491…-$170] · 13% credit
80%
surv 76%
-$2,036 NOT
cap gain +$7,001
budget: banked $323 debit $211 (65% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$112 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $1,433/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,384/mo
vs 50% target ($2,076/mo)-33%
vs normal income ($4,152/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$943/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $16.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$5,262
… as % of IC ($9,350)56.3%
… as % of ML ($26,850)19.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.3 mo
Surgical close (19 ct)$-6,897
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $14.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $13.86Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$14-14.19
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $14.19
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$14.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$323$-5,764+$3,273+$247
+2.5%$14.35 (1.2σ)$-342$-5,721+$3,317-$418
+5%$14.70 (1.4σ)$-1,007$-5,677+$3,361-$1,083
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (5.3σ)$-12,483$-5,366+$3,672-$11,153
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.94, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,038
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,878
− CC assignment net of premium (19 × $14): -$5,262
+ Conservative CC premium (6 × $20): +$24
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,397 (+$3,641 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-59 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,338, the opportunity cost of earning $1,384/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,702, position total $-5,171 (+$3,867 vs today)
🎯 50% normal18 × $13.5017 Jul7d7.5%74%42%$486$2,083$5,705
Sell 18 × $13.50 7.5% OTM over spot $12.55 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.29 mid)
= $486 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,083/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $13.50)
74%
Breach risk
26%
POP (stays ≤ $13.79)
79%
EV / mo
+$540
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo)  ·  58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without)  ·  ~10.0 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $1,340
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
42%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$472
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$16 @ 84% POP
81% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.75/sh now → $0.53 mid-life (likely $0.61–$0.90)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.26/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,248 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (18 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1424 Jul 202610d left+$0.25/sh+$454
cycle +$940
[+$301…+$482] · 100% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$6,156 NOT
cap gain +$2,882
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1431 Jul 202618d left+$0.33/sh+$594
cycle +$1,080
[+$400…+$619] · 100% credit
71%
surv 60%
-$5,115 NOT
cap gain +$3,923
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1424 Jul 202610d left+$0.07/sh+$133
cycle +$619
[-$67…+$126] · 53% credit
71%
surv 61%
-$5,576 NOT
cap gain +$3,461
Max even-money escape in the band~$1531 Jul 202618d left+$0.01/sh+$10
cycle +$496
[-$281…-$28] · 22% credit
78%
surv 72%
-$3,674 NOT
cap gain +$5,364
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1631 Jul 202618d left-$0.23/sh-$415
cycle +$71
[-$825…-$493] · 1% credit
84%
surv 81%
-$2,074 NOT
cap gain +$6,964
budget: banked $486 debit $415 (85% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$71 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $905/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,083/mo
vs 50% target ($2,076/mo)+0%
vs normal income ($4,152/mo)50% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,647/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $13.50 is $3 below CC-SS $16.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$5,705
… as % of IC ($9,350)61.0%
… as % of ML ($26,850)21.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.4 mo
Surgical close (18 ct)$-6,543
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $13.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $13.37Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$13-13.79
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $13.79
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$13.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$486$-6,610+$2,428+$414
+2.5%$13.84 (≤1σ, normal week)$-121$-6,534+$2,504-$193
+5%$14.18 (1.0σ)$-729$-6,458+$2,580-$801
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (5.3σ)$-12,546$-5,499+$3,539-$11,286
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.94, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,038
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,878
− CC assignment net of premium (18 × $13.50): -$5,705
+ Conservative CC premium (7 × $20): +$28
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,836 (+$3,201 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-59 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,777, the opportunity cost of earning $2,083/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,964, position total $-5,429 (+$3,609 vs today)
100% normal24 × $1317 Jul7d3.5%63%77%$984$4,217+$2,134$8,470
Sell 24 × $13 3.5% OTM over spot $12.55 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.44 mid)
= $984 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,217/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $13)
63%
Breach risk
37%
POP (stays ≤ $13.45)
73%
EV / mo
+$681
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.5] median  ·  66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without)  ·  ~15.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $2,699
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
58%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$219
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$16 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.71/sh now → $0.50 mid-life (likely $0.64–$0.94)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.09/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,749 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $13 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (24 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1324 Jul 202610d left+$0.24/sh+$571
cycle +$1,555
[+$331…+$516] · 99% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$6,578 NOT
cap gain +$2,460
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1331 Jul 202618d left+$0.30/sh+$723
cycle +$1,707
[+$410…+$642] · 99% credit
71%
surv 61%
-$5,524 NOT
cap gain +$3,513
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1324 Jul 202610d left+$0.06/sh+$144
cycle +$1,128
[-$175…+$37] · 31% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$6,103 NOT
cap gain +$2,934
Max even-money escape in the band~$1431 Jul 202618d left+$0.01/sh+$21
cycle +$1,005
[-$483…-$149] · 16% credit
73%
surv 67%
-$5,214 NOT
cap gain +$3,824
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1631 Jul 202618d left-$0.32/sh-$761
cycle +$223
[-$1,486…-$997]
90%
surv 89%
-$934 NOT
cap gain +$8,104
budget: banked $984 debit $761 (77% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$223 cash · rolled 24 ct earn ≈ $736/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,217/mo
vs 50% target ($2,076/mo)+103%
vs normal income ($4,152/mo)102% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,747/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $13 is $4 below CC-SS $16.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$8,470
… as % of IC ($9,350)90.6%
… as % of ML ($26,850)31.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.0 mo
Surgical close (24 ct)$-8,760
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $13.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $12.87Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$13-13.45
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $13.45
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$13.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$984$-7,148+$1,889+$888
+2.5%$13.32 (≤1σ, normal week)$204$-7,270+$1,767+$108
+5%$13.65 (≤1σ, normal week)$-576$-7,392+$1,645-$672
SS (= V-bounce)$20.74 (5.3σ)$-17,592$-10,125-$1,087-$15,912
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.94, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,038
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,878
− CC assignment net of premium (24 × $13): -$8,470
+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $20): +$4
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,626 (+$412 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-59 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,566, the opportunity cost of earning $4,217/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,816, position total $-9,305 ($-267 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on CLSK are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (8 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.810 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$8,878 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-59

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$13.507d17 Jul 2026$0.2718/25$2,083$1,64774%79%+$540-$5,70561.0%$-5,836 (vs do-nothing $-5,777)
$13.5014d24 Jul 2026$0.4721/25$2,115$1,66269%76%+$378-$6,23566.7%$-6,379 (vs do-nothing $-6,319)
$137d17 Jul 2026$0.4112/25$2,109$1,70763%73%+$340-$4,23545.3%$-4,343 (vs do-nothing $-4,283)
$1314d24 Jul 2026$0.6316/25$2,160$1,73661%72%+$272-$5,29556.6%$-5,418 (vs do-nothing $-5,359)
$1321d31 Jul 2026$0.8418/25$2,160$1,72561%72%+$282-$5,57959.7%$-5,710 (vs do-nothing $-5,651)
$12.5021d31 Jul 2026$0.9017/25$2,186$1,75654%71%$-122-$6,01764.3%$-6,144 (vs do-nothing $-6,085)
$12.5014d24 Jul 2026$0.8312/25$2,134$1,73352%68%+$161-$4,33146.3%$-4,439 (vs do-nothing $-4,379)
$12.507d17 Jul 2026$0.618/25$2,091$1,71351%67%+$189-$3,06332.8%$-3,155 (vs do-nothing $-3,095)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-10 22:35