25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $16.94 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $4,152/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $475/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,038 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 18 × $13.50 | 74% | $2,083 | $376 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 16 × $15 | 17 Jul | 7d | 19.5% | 92% | 17% | $112 | $480 | -$1,603 | $2,991 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $15 19.5% OTM over spot $12.55 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.08 mid) = $112 credit for the 7d cycle → $480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $15.08) 92% EV / mo +$209 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.3] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-474 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$894 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.89/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.50–$0.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 290 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $2 below CC-SS $16.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $15.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,038 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,878 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $15): -$2,991 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $20): +$36 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,114 (+$5,923 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-59 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,055, the opportunity cost of earning $480/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,888, position total $-2,345 (+$6,693 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $15 | 17 Jul | 7d | 19.5% | 92% | 17% | $175 | $750 | -$1,333 | $4,673 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $15 19.5% OTM over spot $12.55 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.08 mid) = $175 credit for the 7d cycle → $750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $15.08) 92% EV / mo +$327 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.4] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-15 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,397 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.89/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.50–$0.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 288 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $2 below CC-SS $16.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $15.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,038 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,878 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15): -$4,673 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,833 (+$4,205 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-59 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,773, the opportunity cost of earning $750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,200, position total $-5,693 (+$3,345 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $14 | 17 Jul | 7d | 11.5% | 83% | 36% | $323 | $1,384 | -$699 | $5,262 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $14 11.5% OTM over spot $12.55 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.18 mid) = $323 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,384/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $14.19) 85% EV / mo +$495 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.8-3.4] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~6.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $768 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$748 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.80/sh now → $0.56 mid-life (likely $0.56–$0.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 793 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $16.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $14.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,038 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,878 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $14): -$5,262 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $20): +$24 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,397 (+$3,641 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-59 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,338, the opportunity cost of earning $1,384/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,702, position total $-5,171 (+$3,867 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 7.5% | 74% | 42% | $486 | $2,083 | — | $5,705 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $13.50 7.5% OTM over spot $12.55 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.29 mid) = $486 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,083/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $13.79) 79% EV / mo +$540 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~10.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,340 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$472 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.75/sh now → $0.53 mid-life (likely $0.61–$0.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,248 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $3 below CC-SS $16.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $13.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,038 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,878 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $13.50): -$5,705 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $20): +$28 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,836 (+$3,201 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-59 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,777, the opportunity cost of earning $2,083/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,964, position total $-5,429 (+$3,609 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 24 × $13 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.5% | 63% | 77% | $984 | $4,217 | +$2,134 | $8,470 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $13 3.5% OTM over spot $12.55 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.44 mid) = $984 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,217/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $13.45) 73% EV / mo +$681 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.5] median · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~15.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,699 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$219 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.71/sh now → $0.50 mid-life (likely $0.64–$0.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,749 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $13 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $4 below CC-SS $16.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $13.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,038 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,878 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $13): -$8,470 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $20): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,626 (+$412 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-59 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,566, the opportunity cost of earning $4,217/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,816, position total $-9,305 ($-267 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.810 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,878 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-59
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.27 | 18/25 | $2,083 | $1,647 | 74% | 79% | +$540 | -$5,705 | 61.0% | $-5,836 (vs do-nothing $-5,777) |
| $13.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 21/25 | $2,115 | $1,662 | 69% | 76% | +$378 | -$6,235 | 66.7% | $-6,379 (vs do-nothing $-6,319) |
| $13 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 12/25 | $2,109 | $1,707 | 63% | 73% | +$340 | -$4,235 | 45.3% | $-4,343 (vs do-nothing $-4,283) |
| $13 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 16/25 | $2,160 | $1,736 | 61% | 72% | +$272 | -$5,295 | 56.6% | $-5,418 (vs do-nothing $-5,359) |
| $13 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 18/25 | $2,160 | $1,725 | 61% | 72% | +$282 | -$5,579 | 59.7% | $-5,710 (vs do-nothing $-5,651) |
| $12.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.90 | 17/25 | $2,186 | $1,756 | 54% | 71% | $-122 | -$6,017 | 64.3% | $-6,144 (vs do-nothing $-6,085) |
| $12.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 12/25 | $2,134 | $1,733 | 52% | 68% | +$161 | -$4,331 | 46.3% | $-4,439 (vs do-nothing $-4,379) |
| $12.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 8/25 | $2,091 | $1,713 | 51% | 67% | +$189 | -$3,063 | 32.8% | $-3,155 (vs do-nothing $-3,095) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.