25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.19 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $4,673/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $483/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,538 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 19 × $13.50 | 76% | $2,375 | $547 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 15.4% | 90% | 20% | $250 | $1,250 | -$1,125 | $6,465 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $14.50 15.4% OTM over spot $12.57 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.12 mid) = $250 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $14.62) 92% EV / mo +$741 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-4.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,847 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,194 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.82/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.50–$0.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 333 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $15 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $14.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,538 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,359 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $14.50): -$6,465 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,644 (+$2,894 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-154 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,490, the opportunity cost of earning $1,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,375, position total $-7,383 (+$2,155 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $14 | 17 Jul | 6d | 11.4% | 85% | 32% | $323 | $1,615 | -$760 | $5,730 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $14 11.4% OTM over spot $12.57 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.17 mid) = $323 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,615/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $14.18) 87% EV / mo +$847 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [1.0-3.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~5.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,886 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$714 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.55–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 707 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $17.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $14.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,538 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,359 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $14): -$5,730 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $20): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,903 (+$3,635 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-154 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,749, the opportunity cost of earning $1,615/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,702, position total $-5,704 (+$3,834 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 7.4% | 76% | 37% | $475 | $2,375 | — | $6,528 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $13.50 7.4% OTM over spot $12.57 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.27 mid) = $475 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $13.77) 81% EV / mo +$880 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.0-3.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~10.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,951 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$503 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.73/sh now → $0.51 mid-life (likely $0.58–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,121 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $14 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $13.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,538 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,359 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $13.50): -$6,528 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $20): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,701 (+$2,837 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-154 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,547, the opportunity cost of earning $2,375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,500, position total $-6,502 (+$3,036 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 24 × $13 | 17 Jul | 6d | 3.4% | 64% | 75% | $960 | $4,800 | +$2,425 | $9,086 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $13 3.4% OTM over spot $12.57 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.43 mid) = $960 credit for the 6d cycle → $4,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $13.43) 74% EV / mo +$1,296 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.1-3.7] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 73% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~16.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,699 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 56% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$204 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.69/sh now → $0.48 mid-life (likely $0.62–$0.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,689 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $13 (overshoots $0.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $4 below CC-SS $17.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $13.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,538 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,359 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $13): -$9,086 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $20): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,264 (+$274 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-154 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,110, the opportunity cost of earning $4,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,840, position total $-9,847 ($-309 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.811 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$9,359 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-154
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 19/25 | $2,375 | $2,384 | 76% | 81% | +$880 | -$6,528 | 69.8% | $-6,701 (vs do-nothing $-6,547) |
| $13.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.48 | 22/25 | $2,437 | $2,441 | 70% | 77% | +$609 | -$7,053 | 75.4% | $-7,229 (vs do-nothing $-7,075) |
| $13.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 24/25 | $2,412 | $2,414 | 67% | 76% | +$502 | -$7,238 | 77.4% | $-7,416 (vs do-nothing $-7,262) |
| $13 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 12/25 | $2,400 | $2,420 | 64% | 74% | +$648 | -$4,543 | 48.6% | $-4,709 (vs do-nothing $-4,555) |
| $13 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.66 | 16/25 | $2,437 | $2,450 | 61% | 73% | +$503 | -$5,642 | 60.3% | $-5,811 (vs do-nothing $-5,658) |
| $13 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 19/25 | $2,422 | $2,431 | 60% | 72% | +$412 | -$6,338 | 67.8% | $-6,511 (vs do-nothing $-6,357) |
| $12.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 15/25 | $2,363 | $2,378 | 53% | 69% | +$281 | -$5,454 | 58.3% | $-5,623 (vs do-nothing $-5,469) |
| $12.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.88 | 12/25 | $2,437 | $2,456 | 52% | 68% | +$382 | -$4,567 | 48.8% | $-4,733 (vs do-nothing $-4,579) |
| $12.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 8/25 | $2,480 | $2,506 | 50% | 68% | +$458 | -$3,253 | 34.8% | $-3,414 (vs do-nothing $-3,261) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.