25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.27 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $4,731/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $483/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,100 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 18 × $14 | 77% | $2,430 | $814 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $15 | 17 Jul | 6d | 16.5% | 90% | 20% | $275 | $1,375 | -$1,055 | $5,399 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $15 16.5% OTM over spot $12.88 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.12 mid) = $275 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $15.12) 91% EV / mo +$773 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~3.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,345 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,251 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.86/sh now → $0.61 mid-life (likely $0.51–$0.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 410 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $15 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $2 below CC-SS $17.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $15.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,955 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15): -$5,399 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,544 (+$3,556 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-120 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,424, the opportunity cost of earning $1,375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,125, position total $-6,230 (+$2,870 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 12.6% | 85% | 31% | $323 | $1,615 | -$815 | $4,940 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $14.50 12.6% OTM over spot $12.88 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.18 mid) = $323 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,615/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $14.69) 87% EV / mo +$762 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~5.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,252 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$777 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.82/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.53–$0.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 677 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $15 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $14.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,955 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $14.50): -$4,940 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $20.50): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,078 (+$4,022 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-120 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,959, the opportunity cost of earning $1,615/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,771, position total $-4,870 (+$4,230 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $14 | 17 Jul | 6d | 8.7% | 77% | 33% | $486 | $2,430 | — | $5,400 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $14 8.7% OTM over spot $12.88 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.29 mid) = $486 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,430/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $14.29) 82% EV / mo +$965 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~8.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,749 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$501 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.59–$0.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 983 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $14 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $17.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $14.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,955 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $14): -$5,400 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $20.50): +$7 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,537 (+$3,563 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-120 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,418, the opportunity cost of earning $2,430/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,082, position total $-5,180 (+$3,920 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 24 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 4.8% | 67% | 68% | $984 | $4,920 | +$2,490 | $8,063 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $13.50 4.8% OTM over spot $12.88 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.42 mid) = $984 credit for the 6d cycle → $4,920/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $13.92) 76% EV / mo +$1,523 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.8-3.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~12.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,495 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 52% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$259 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.73/sh now → $0.52 mid-life (likely $0.64–$0.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,560 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $14 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $13.92 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,955 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $13.50): -$8,063 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $20.50): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,207 (+$893 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-120 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,087, the opportunity cost of earning $4,920/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,640, position total $-8,744 (+$356 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.816 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,955 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-120
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.27 | 18/25 | $2,430 | $2,446 | 77% | 82% | +$965 | -$5,400 | 57.7% | $-5,537 (vs do-nothing $-5,418) |
| $14 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.48 | 22/25 | $2,437 | $2,444 | 72% | 78% | +$667 | -$6,137 | 65.6% | $-6,279 (vs do-nothing $-6,159) |
| $14 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 25/25 | $2,438 | $2,438 | 69% | 77% | +$504 | -$6,549 | 70.0% | $-6,694 (vs do-nothing $-6,574) |
| $13.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 12/25 | $2,460 | $2,490 | 67% | 76% | +$762 | -$4,032 | 43.1% | $-4,164 (vs do-nothing $-4,044) |
| $13.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 16/25 | $2,400 | $2,421 | 64% | 74% | +$560 | -$4,992 | 53.4% | $-5,128 (vs do-nothing $-5,008) |
| $13.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 19/25 | $2,365 | $2,379 | 63% | 73% | +$433 | -$5,586 | 59.7% | $-5,724 (vs do-nothing $-5,605) |
| $13 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.04 | 16/25 | $2,496 | $2,517 | 56% | 71% | +$382 | -$5,168 | 55.3% | $-5,304 (vs do-nothing $-5,184) |
| $13 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 13/25 | $2,460 | $2,488 | 56% | 70% | +$371 | -$4,485 | 48.0% | $-4,618 (vs do-nothing $-4,498) |
| $13 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 9/25 | $2,610 | $2,647 | 55% | 70% | +$506 | -$3,321 | 35.5% | $-3,450 (vs do-nothing $-3,330) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.