25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.18 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $4,442/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $510/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,900 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 25 × $14.50 | 86% | $2,256 | $912 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $15 | 17 Jul | 6d | 16.7% | 91% | 19% | $285 | $1,425 | -$831 | $5,173 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $15 16.7% OTM over spot $12.85 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.12 mid) = $285 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,425/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $15.12) 92% EV / mo +$894 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.0] median · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~2.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,233 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,234 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.86/sh now → $0.61 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 380 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $15 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $2 below CC-SS $17.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $15.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,750 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15): -$5,173 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,323 (+$4,577 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $968 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,292, the opportunity cost of earning $1,425/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,115, position total $-4,718 (+$4,182 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 17 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 12.8% | 86% | 30% | $307 | $1,534 | -$722 | $4,255 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $14.50 12.8% OTM over spot $12.85 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.19 mid) = $307 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,534/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $14.69) 88% EV / mo +$844 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.9] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~4.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,954 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$673 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 85% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.81/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.56–$0.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 612 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $15 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $14.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,750 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $14.50): -$4,255 + Conservative CC premium (8 × $20.50): +$38 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,367 (+$5,533 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $968 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,335, the opportunity cost of earning $1,534/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,935, position total $-2,500 (+$6,400 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 25 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 12.8% | 86% | 19% | $451 | $2,256 | — | $6,257 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $14.50 12.8% OTM over spot $12.85 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.19 mid) = $451 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,256/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $14.69) 88% EV / mo +$1,242 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~4.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,974 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$989 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 85% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.81/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 560 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $15 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $14.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,750 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $14.50): -$6,257 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,407 (+$3,493 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $968 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,376, the opportunity cost of earning $2,256/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,199, position total $-5,801 (+$3,099 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 23 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 5.1% | 68% | 66% | $896 | $4,479 | +$2,223 | $7,576 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $13.50 5.1% OTM over spot $12.85 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.41 mid) = $896 credit for the 6d cycle → $4,479/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $13.91) 77% EV / mo +$1,418 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.5-2.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~10.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,563 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 51% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$289 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.73/sh now → $0.52 mid-life (likely $0.62–$0.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,530 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $14 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $13.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,750 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $13.50): -$7,576 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $20.50): +$10 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,716 (+$2,184 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $968 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,685, the opportunity cost of earning $4,479/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,202, position total $-6,795 (+$2,105 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$9,750 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $968
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.18 | 25/25 | $2,256 | $2,256 | 86% | 88% | +$1,242 | -$6,257 | 66.9% | $-5,407 (vs do-nothing $-6,376) |
| $14 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.27 | 17/25 | $2,261 | $2,349 | 78% | 83% | +$984 | -$4,959 | 53.0% | $-4,072 (vs do-nothing $-5,040) |
| $14 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | 22/25 | $2,234 | $2,267 | 72% | 78% | +$527 | -$6,035 | 64.5% | $-5,171 (vs do-nothing $-6,140) |
| $14 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.72 | 21/25 | $2,274 | $2,318 | 69% | 77% | +$683 | -$5,169 | 55.3% | $-4,300 (vs do-nothing $-5,268) |
| $13.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 12/25 | $2,337 | $2,479 | 68% | 77% | +$740 | -$3,952 | 42.3% | $-3,041 (vs do-nothing $-4,009) |
| $13.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 17/25 | $2,354 | $2,442 | 65% | 74% | +$456 | -$5,241 | 56.1% | $-4,354 (vs do-nothing $-5,322) |
| $13.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.89 | 17/25 | $2,277 | $2,365 | 63% | 74% | +$576 | -$4,743 | 50.7% | $-3,856 (vs do-nothing $-4,824) |
| $13 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.08 | 14/25 | $2,274 | $2,395 | 56% | 71% | +$450 | -$4,340 | 46.4% | $-3,438 (vs do-nothing $-4,407) |
| $13 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 9/25 | $2,437 | $2,612 | 56% | 70% | +$428 | -$3,278 | 35.1% | $-2,352 (vs do-nothing $-3,320) |
| $13 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.77 | 13/25 | $2,310 | $2,442 | 56% | 70% | +$269 | -$4,437 | 47.5% | $-3,530 (vs do-nothing $-4,499) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.