25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.15 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $4,442/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $510/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,900 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 18 × $14 | 78% | $2,340 | $761 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $15 | 17 Jul | 6d | 16.7% | 91% | 19% | $250 | $1,250 | -$1,090 | $5,124 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $15 16.7% OTM over spot $12.85 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.12 mid) = $250 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $15.12) 92% EV / mo +$719 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~3.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,183 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,299 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.88/sh now → $0.62 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 380 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $15 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $2 below CC-SS $17.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $15.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,771 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15): -$5,124 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,253 (+$3,647 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-104 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,149, the opportunity cost of earning $1,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,150, position total $-5,994 (+$2,906 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 12.8% | 86% | 30% | $300 | $1,500 | -$840 | $4,999 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $14.50 12.8% OTM over spot $12.85 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.17 mid) = $300 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $14.67) 88% EV / mo +$688 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~4.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,477 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$874 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.83/sh now → $0.59 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 591 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $15 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $14.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,771 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $14.50): -$4,999 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $20.50): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,123 (+$3,777 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-104 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,019, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,220, position total $-5,059 (+$3,841 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $14 | 17 Jul | 6d | 8.9% | 78% | 32% | $468 | $2,340 | — | $5,201 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $14 8.9% OTM over spot $12.85 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.27 mid) = $468 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,340/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $14.27) 83% EV / mo +$988 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~8.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,371 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$532 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.79/sh now → $0.56 mid-life (likely $0.59–$0.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 947 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $17.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $14.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,771 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $14): -$5,201 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $20.50): +$7 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,323 (+$3,577 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-104 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,219, the opportunity cost of earning $2,340/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,100, position total $-4,937 (+$3,963 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 23 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 5.1% | 68% | 66% | $920 | $4,600 | +$2,260 | $7,474 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $13.50 5.1% OTM over spot $12.85 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.41 mid) = $920 credit for the 6d cycle → $4,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $13.90) 77% EV / mo +$1,539 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-2.9] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~11.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,721 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 51% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$288 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.74/sh now → $0.53 mid-life (likely $0.63–$0.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,530 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $14 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $13.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,771 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $13.50): -$7,474 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $20.50): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,601 (+$1,299 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-104 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,497, the opportunity cost of earning $4,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,178, position total $-8,020 (+$880 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.816 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,771 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-104
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 18/25 | $2,340 | $2,356 | 78% | 83% | +$988 | -$5,201 | 55.6% | $-5,323 (vs do-nothing $-5,219) |
| $14 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | 22/25 | $2,234 | $2,241 | 72% | 78% | +$527 | -$5,961 | 63.8% | $-6,087 (vs do-nothing $-5,983) |
| $14 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 23/25 | $2,243 | $2,247 | 69% | 77% | +$499 | -$5,749 | 61.5% | $-5,876 (vs do-nothing $-5,772) |
| $13.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 12/25 | $2,400 | $2,430 | 68% | 77% | +$803 | -$3,899 | 41.7% | $-4,015 (vs do-nothing $-3,911) |
| $13.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 17/25 | $2,354 | $2,372 | 65% | 74% | +$456 | -$5,184 | 55.4% | $-5,305 (vs do-nothing $-5,201) |
| $13.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 19/25 | $2,337 | $2,351 | 63% | 74% | +$436 | -$5,376 | 57.5% | $-5,499 (vs do-nothing $-5,395) |
| $13 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.02 | 15/25 | $2,295 | $2,318 | 56% | 70% | +$340 | -$4,694 | 50.2% | $-4,813 (vs do-nothing $-4,709) |
| $13 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.56 | 8/25 | $2,240 | $2,279 | 56% | 70% | +$455 | -$2,872 | 30.7% | $-2,984 (vs do-nothing $-2,880) |
| $13 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.77 | 13/25 | $2,310 | $2,338 | 56% | 70% | +$269 | -$4,393 | 47.0% | $-4,510 (vs do-nothing $-4,406) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.