25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $16.73 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,818/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $512/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 18 × $14 | 90% | $3,510 | $2,141 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 21 × $13.50 | 73% | $3,436 | $876 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 20 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 16.9% | 95% | 10% | $300 | $2,250 | -$1,260 | $4,158 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $14.50 16.9% OTM over spot $12.40 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.17 mid) = $300 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $14.67) 96% EV / mo +$2,052 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-2.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,926 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,420 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 83% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.22/sh now → $0.86 mid-life (likely $0.71–$1.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 196 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $15 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $2 below CC-SS $16.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $14.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,741 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $14.50): -$4,158 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $20.50): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,413 (+$5,587 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $766 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,178, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $14 | 17 Jul | 4d | 12.9% | 90% | 12% | $468 | $3,510 | — | $4,444 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $14 12.9% OTM over spot $12.40 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.27 mid) = $468 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,510/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $14.27) 93% EV / mo +$3,046 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~4.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,722 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$996 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.15/sh now → $0.81 mid-life (likely $0.72–$1.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 374 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $16.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $14.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,741 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $14): -$4,444 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $20.50): +$7 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,697 (+$5,303 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $766 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,462, the opportunity cost of earning $3,510/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $14 | 17 Jul | 4d | 12.9% | 90% | 20% | $650 | $4,875 | +$1,365 | $6,173 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $14 12.9% OTM over spot $12.40 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.27 mid) = $650 credit for the 4d cycle → $4,875/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $14.27) 93% EV / mo +$4,231 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-3.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~4.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,343 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,384 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.15/sh now → $0.81 mid-life (likely $0.75–$1.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 341 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $16.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $14.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,741 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $14): -$6,173 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,432 (+$3,568 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $766 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,198, the opportunity cost of earning $4,875/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 23 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 8.9% | 82% | 36% | $920 | $6,900 | +$3,390 | $6,507 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $13.50 8.9% OTM over spot $12.40 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.41 mid) = $920 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $13.90) 89% EV / mo +$5,468 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.6-3.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 81% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~6.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,176 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$848 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 87% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.09/sh now → $0.77 mid-life (likely $0.81–$1.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 714 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $3 below CC-SS $16.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $13.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,741 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $13.50): -$6,507 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $20.50): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,764 (+$3,236 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $766 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,530, the opportunity cost of earning $6,900/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $15.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 25.0% | 93% | 15% | $425 | $1,159 | -$2,277 | $2,648 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $15.50 25.0% OTM over spot $12.40 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.20 mid) = $425 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,159/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $15.70) 94% EV / mo +$883 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~1.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,700 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,642 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 76% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.73/sh now → $1.23 mid-life (likely $0.94–$1.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 343 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $16 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $1 below CC-SS $16.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $15.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,741 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15.50): -$2,648 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,907 (+$7,093 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $766 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,673, the opportunity cost of earning $1,159/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $14 | 24 Jul | 11d | 12.9% | 80% | 42% | $836 | $2,280 | -$1,156 | $4,349 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $14 12.9% OTM over spot $12.40 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.48 mid) = $836 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,280/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $14.48) 86% EV / mo +$1,369 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.5] median · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~4.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,234 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,148 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 82% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.48/sh now → $1.04 mid-life (likely $1.02–$1.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,002 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $16.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $14.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,741 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $14): -$4,349 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $20.50): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,603 (+$5,397 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $766 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,368, the opportunity cost of earning $2,280/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 21 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 8.9% | 73% | 45% | $1,260 | $3,436 | — | $5,521 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $13.50 8.9% OTM over spot $12.40 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.65 mid) = $1,260 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,436/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $14.14) 82% EV / mo +$1,853 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~5.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,822 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 45% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$811 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 86% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.39/sh now → $0.99 mid-life (likely $1.13–$1.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,360 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $3 below CC-SS $16.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $14.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,741 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $13.50): -$5,521 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $20.50): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,777 (+$4,223 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $766 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,542, the opportunity cost of earning $3,436/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$9,741 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $766
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 18/25 | $3,510 | $3,529 | 90% | 93% | +$3,046 | -$4,444 | 47.5% | $-3,697 (vs do-nothing $-4,462) |
| $13.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 12/25 | $3,600 | $3,635 | 82% | 89% | +$2,853 | -$3,395 | 36.3% | $-2,641 (vs do-nothing $-3,407) |
| $13.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 21/25 | $3,436 | $3,447 | 73% | 82% | +$1,853 | -$5,521 | 59.1% | $-4,777 (vs do-nothing $-5,542) |
| $13 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.56 | 9/25 | $3,780 | $3,824 | 70% | 84% | +$2,548 | -$2,852 | 30.5% | $-2,096 (vs do-nothing $-2,861) |
| $13.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 25/25 | $3,417 | $3,417 | 70% | 80% | +$1,540 | -$6,023 | 64.4% | $-5,282 (vs do-nothing $-6,048) |
| $13 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.77 | 17/25 | $3,570 | $3,592 | 65% | 78% | +$1,613 | -$5,031 | 53.8% | $-4,282 (vs do-nothing $-5,048) |
| $13 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.02 | 21/25 | $3,570 | $3,581 | 63% | 76% | +$1,433 | -$5,689 | 60.8% | $-4,945 (vs do-nothing $-5,710) |
| $12.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.20 | 18/25 | $3,600 | $3,619 | 56% | 73% | +$1,164 | -$5,452 | 58.3% | $-4,705 (vs do-nothing $-5,470) |
| $12.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.79 | 6/25 | $3,555 | $3,607 | 55% | 79% | +$1,934 | -$2,063 | 22.1% | $-1,304 (vs do-nothing $-2,069) |
| $12.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 13/25 | $3,545 | $3,578 | 55% | 74% | +$1,338 | -$4,198 | 44.9% | $-3,445 (vs do-nothing $-4,211) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.