25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $16.75 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,818/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $512/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 18 × $14 | 91% | $3,510 | $2,137 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 21 × $13.50 | 74% | $3,436 | $877 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 20 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 17.2% | 95% | 10% | $300 | $2,250 | -$1,260 | $4,204 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $14.50 17.2% OTM over spot $12.37 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.17 mid) = $300 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $14.67) 96% EV / mo +$2,067 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,105 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,482 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 83% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.26/sh now → $0.89 mid-life (likely $0.74–$1.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 184 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $15 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $2 below CC-SS $16.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $14.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,940 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $14.50): -$4,204 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $20.50): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,260 (+$4,740 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-35 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,224, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $14 | 17 Jul | 4d | 13.2% | 91% | 12% | $468 | $3,510 | — | $4,486 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $14 13.2% OTM over spot $12.37 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.27 mid) = $468 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,510/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $14.27) 94% EV / mo +$3,077 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.6] median · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~4.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,214 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,049 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.19/sh now → $0.84 mid-life (likely $0.76–$1.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 362 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $16.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $14.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,940 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $14): -$4,486 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $20.50): +$7 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,539 (+$4,461 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-35 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,504, the opportunity cost of earning $3,510/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $14 | 17 Jul | 4d | 13.2% | 91% | 19% | $650 | $4,875 | +$1,365 | $6,230 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $14 13.2% OTM over spot $12.37 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.27 mid) = $650 credit for the 4d cycle → $4,875/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $14.27) 94% EV / mo +$4,273 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.4] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~3.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,608 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,457 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.19/sh now → $0.84 mid-life (likely $0.76–$1.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 327 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $16.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $14.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,940 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $14): -$6,230 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,291 (+$2,709 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-35 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,255, the opportunity cost of earning $4,875/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 23 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 9.1% | 83% | 35% | $920 | $6,900 | +$3,390 | $6,560 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $13.50 9.1% OTM over spot $12.37 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.41 mid) = $920 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $13.90) 90% EV / mo +$5,550 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.8-3.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~6.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,120 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$911 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.13/sh now → $0.80 mid-life (likely $0.83–$1.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 680 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $3 below CC-SS $16.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $13.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,940 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $13.50): -$6,560 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $20.50): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,618 (+$2,382 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-35 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,583, the opportunity cost of earning $6,900/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $15 | 24 Jul | 11d | 21.3% | 90% | 21% | $575 | $1,568 | -$1,868 | $3,805 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $15 21.3% OTM over spot $12.37 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.27 mid) = $575 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,568/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $15.27) 92% EV / mo +$1,131 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.4] median · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,725 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,402 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 79% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.68/sh now → $1.19 mid-life (likely $0.95–$1.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 472 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $15 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $2 below CC-SS $16.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $15.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,940 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15): -$3,805 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,866 (+$5,134 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-35 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,830, the opportunity cost of earning $1,568/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $14 | 24 Jul | 11d | 13.2% | 81% | 41% | $836 | $2,280 | -$1,156 | $4,393 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $14 13.2% OTM over spot $12.37 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.48 mid) = $836 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,280/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $14.48) 86% EV / mo +$1,400 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.4] median, 0.4 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~4.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,179 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,192 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 83% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.51/sh now → $1.07 mid-life (likely $1.05–$1.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 981 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $16.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $14.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,940 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $14): -$4,393 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $20.50): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,447 (+$4,553 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-35 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,412, the opportunity cost of earning $2,280/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 21 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 9.1% | 74% | 44% | $1,260 | $3,436 | — | $5,570 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $13.50 9.1% OTM over spot $12.37 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.65 mid) = $1,260 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,436/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $14.14) 82% EV / mo +$1,902 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~5.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,624 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$857 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 86% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.42/sh now → $1.01 mid-life (likely $1.16–$1.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,330 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $3 below CC-SS $16.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $14.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,940 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $13.50): -$5,570 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $20.50): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,626 (+$3,374 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-35 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,591, the opportunity cost of earning $3,436/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.816 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,940 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-35
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 18/25 | $3,510 | $3,529 | 91% | 94% | +$3,077 | -$4,486 | 48.0% | $-4,539 (vs do-nothing $-4,504) |
| $13.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 12/25 | $3,600 | $3,635 | 83% | 90% | +$2,895 | -$3,423 | 36.6% | $-3,470 (vs do-nothing $-3,435) |
| $13.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 21/25 | $3,436 | $3,447 | 74% | 82% | +$1,902 | -$5,570 | 59.6% | $-5,626 (vs do-nothing $-5,591) |
| $13 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.56 | 9/25 | $3,780 | $3,824 | 71% | 85% | +$2,607 | -$2,873 | 30.7% | $-2,917 (vs do-nothing $-2,882) |
| $13.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 25/25 | $3,417 | $3,417 | 70% | 80% | +$1,592 | -$6,080 | 65.0% | $-6,141 (vs do-nothing $-6,105) |
| $13 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.77 | 17/25 | $3,570 | $3,592 | 65% | 78% | +$1,667 | -$5,070 | 54.2% | $-5,122 (vs do-nothing $-5,087) |
| $13 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.02 | 21/25 | $3,570 | $3,581 | 64% | 77% | +$1,478 | -$5,738 | 61.4% | $-5,794 (vs do-nothing $-5,759) |
| $12.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.79 | 6/25 | $3,555 | $3,607 | 56% | 79% | +$1,997 | -$2,077 | 22.2% | $-2,119 (vs do-nothing $-2,083) |
| $12.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.20 | 18/25 | $3,600 | $3,619 | 56% | 74% | +$1,196 | -$5,494 | 58.8% | $-5,547 (vs do-nothing $-5,512) |
| $12.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 13/25 | $3,545 | $3,578 | 56% | 75% | +$1,391 | -$4,228 | 45.2% | $-4,276 (vs do-nothing $-4,241) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.