25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $16.81 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,818/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $512/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 18 × $14 | 90% | $3,510 | $2,106 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 21 × $13.50 | 73% | $3,436 | $884 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 20 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 16.7% | 95% | 11% | $300 | $2,250 | -$1,260 | $4,315 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $14.50 16.7% OTM over spot $12.43 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.17 mid) = $300 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $14.67) 96% EV / mo +$2,036 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.0] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~2.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,267 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,361 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 83% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.17/sh now → $0.83 mid-life (likely $0.66–$1.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 198 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $15 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $2 below CC-SS $16.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $14.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,930 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $14.50): -$4,315 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $20.50): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,380 (+$4,620 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-46 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,334, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,220, position total $-4,302 (+$4,698 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 16.7% | 95% | 11% | $375 | $2,812 | -$698 | $5,394 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $14.50 16.7% OTM over spot $12.43 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.17 mid) = $375 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,812/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $14.67) 96% EV / mo +$2,546 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-2.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,010 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,701 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 83% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.17/sh now → $0.83 mid-life (likely $0.70–$1.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 206 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $15 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $2 below CC-SS $16.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $14.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,930 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $14.50): -$5,394 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,464 (+$3,536 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-46 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,418, the opportunity cost of earning $2,812/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,275, position total $-6,362 (+$2,638 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $14 | 17 Jul | 4d | 12.6% | 90% | 13% | $468 | $3,510 | — | $4,586 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $14 12.6% OTM over spot $12.43 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.27 mid) = $468 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,510/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $14.27) 93% EV / mo +$3,014 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.5] median · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~4.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,531 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$946 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 86% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.11/sh now → $0.79 mid-life (likely $0.70–$1.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 397 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $16.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $14.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,930 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $14): -$4,586 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $20.50): +$7 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,649 (+$4,351 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-46 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,603, the opportunity cost of earning $3,510/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,100, position total $-4,180 (+$4,820 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 23 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 8.6% | 82% | 38% | $920 | $6,900 | +$3,390 | $6,687 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $13.50 8.6% OTM over spot $12.43 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.41 mid) = $920 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $13.90) 89% EV / mo +$5,383 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~6.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,525 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$787 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 89% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.05/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.79–$1.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 737 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $3 below CC-SS $16.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $13.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,930 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $13.50): -$6,687 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $20.50): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,755 (+$2,245 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-46 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,709, the opportunity cost of earning $6,900/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,178, position total $-7,263 (+$1,737 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $15.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 24.7% | 93% | 15% | $425 | $1,159 | -$2,277 | $2,844 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $15.50 24.7% OTM over spot $12.43 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.20 mid) = $425 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,159/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $15.70) 94% EV / mo +$870 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.0] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~1.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,903 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,575 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 78% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.70/sh now → $1.20 mid-life (likely $0.93–$1.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 345 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $16 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $1 below CC-SS $16.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $15.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,930 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15.50): -$2,844 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,914 (+$6,086 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-46 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,868, the opportunity cost of earning $1,159/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,725, position total $-3,812 (+$5,188 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $14 | 24 Jul | 11d | 12.6% | 80% | 42% | $836 | $2,280 | -$1,156 | $4,498 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $14 12.6% OTM over spot $12.43 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.48 mid) = $836 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,280/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $14.48) 85% EV / mo +$1,337 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.2] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,333 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,104 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 82% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.44/sh now → $1.02 mid-life (likely $1.02–$1.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,043 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $16.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $14.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,930 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $14): -$4,498 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $20.50): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,562 (+$4,438 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-46 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,516, the opportunity cost of earning $2,280/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,208, position total $-4,289 (+$4,711 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 21 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 8.6% | 73% | 46% | $1,260 | $3,436 | — | $5,686 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $13.50 8.6% OTM over spot $12.43 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.65 mid) = $1,260 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,436/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $14.14) 82% EV / mo +$1,804 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.1] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~6.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,741 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$766 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 86% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.36/sh now → $0.96 mid-life (likely $1.13–$1.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,386 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $3 below CC-SS $16.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $14.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,930 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $13.50): -$5,686 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $20.50): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,752 (+$3,248 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-46 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,706, the opportunity cost of earning $3,436/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,786, position total $-5,869 (+$3,131 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.816 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,930 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-46
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 18/25 | $3,510 | $3,528 | 90% | 93% | +$3,014 | -$4,586 | 49.0% | $-4,649 (vs do-nothing $-4,603) |
| $13.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 12/25 | $3,600 | $3,634 | 82% | 89% | +$2,809 | -$3,489 | 37.3% | $-3,547 (vs do-nothing $-3,500) |
| $13.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 21/25 | $3,436 | $3,447 | 73% | 82% | +$1,804 | -$5,686 | 60.8% | $-5,752 (vs do-nothing $-5,706) |
| $13 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.56 | 9/25 | $3,780 | $3,821 | 70% | 83% | +$2,487 | -$2,923 | 31.3% | $-2,977 (vs do-nothing $-2,931) |
| $13.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 25/25 | $3,444 | $3,444 | 69% | 79% | +$1,534 | -$6,203 | 66.3% | $-6,272 (vs do-nothing $-6,226) |
| $13 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.77 | 17/25 | $3,570 | $3,591 | 64% | 77% | +$1,559 | -$5,164 | 55.2% | $-5,226 (vs do-nothing $-5,180) |
| $13 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.02 | 21/25 | $3,558 | $3,568 | 63% | 76% | +$1,368 | -$5,861 | 62.7% | $-5,927 (vs do-nothing $-5,881) |
| $12.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.23 | 17/25 | $3,499 | $3,520 | 55% | 73% | +$1,141 | -$5,223 | 55.9% | $-5,286 (vs do-nothing $-5,239) |
| $12.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 13/25 | $3,545 | $3,577 | 55% | 74% | +$1,284 | -$4,300 | 46.0% | $-4,358 (vs do-nothing $-4,312) |
| $12.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.79 | 6/25 | $3,555 | $3,604 | 54% | 78% | +$1,868 | -$2,111 | 22.6% | $-2,162 (vs do-nothing $-2,116) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.