25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.01 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $3,955/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $478/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,475 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 16 × $13.50 | 81% | $2,040 | $647 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 21 × $13.50 | 72% | $2,005 | $-664 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 16.9% | 91% | 18% | $150 | $1,125 | -$915 | $6,122 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $14.50 16.9% OTM over spot $12.41 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.07 mid) = $150 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,125/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $14.57) 92% EV / mo +$394 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.5] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~4.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,475 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,074 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.69/sh now → $0.49 mid-life (likely $0.39–$0.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 233 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $15 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $14.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,475 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,303 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $14.50): -$6,122 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,294 (+$3,181 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-147 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,147, the opportunity cost of earning $1,125/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,475, position total $-7,125 (+$2,350 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 18 × $14 | 17 Jul | 4d | 12.8% | 86% | 29% | $180 | $1,350 | -$690 | $5,236 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $14 12.8% OTM over spot $12.41 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.11 mid) = $180 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,350/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $14.11) 88% EV / mo +$365 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.0] median · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~6.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,860 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$655 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 77% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.66/sh now → $0.46 mid-life (likely $0.43–$0.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 434 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $17.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $14.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,475 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,303 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $14): -$5,236 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $20.50): +$7 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,401 (+$4,074 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-147 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,254, the opportunity cost of earning $1,350/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,370, position total $-5,013 (+$4,462 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 16 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 8.8% | 81% | 26% | $272 | $2,040 | — | $5,342 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $13.50 8.8% OTM over spot $12.41 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.18 mid) = $272 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,040/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $13.68) 84% EV / mo +$847 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~9.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,018 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$430 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.62/sh now → $0.44 mid-life (likely $0.46–$0.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 794 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $13.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,475 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,303 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $13.50): -$5,342 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $20.50): +$9 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,505 (+$3,970 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-147 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,358, the opportunity cost of earning $2,040/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,128, position total $-4,769 (+$4,706 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $13 | 17 Jul | 4d | 4.8% | 69% | 63% | $532 | $3,990 | +$1,950 | $7,085 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $13 4.8% OTM over spot $12.41 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.29 mid) = $532 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,990/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $13.29) 76% EV / mo +$1,045 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~15.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,955 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$255 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.59/sh now → $0.41 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,369 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $13 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $4 below CC-SS $17.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $13.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,475 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,303 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $13): -$7,085 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $20.50): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,251 (+$2,224 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-147 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,104, the opportunity cost of earning $3,990/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,393, position total $-7,037 (+$2,438 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $15.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 24.9% | 92% | 17% | $175 | $477 | -$1,527 | $3,597 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $15.50 24.9% OTM over spot $12.41 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.12 mid) = $175 credit for the 11d cycle → $477/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $15.62) 93% EV / mo +$114 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-2.8] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~1.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,192 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,864 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 66% POP 54% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.72/sh now → $1.22 mid-life (likely $0.97–$1.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 400 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $16 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $15.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,475 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,303 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15.50): -$3,597 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,769 (+$5,706 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-147 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,622, the opportunity cost of earning $477/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,950, position total $-4,600 (+$4,875 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 18 × $14 | 24 Jul | 11d | 12.8% | 79% | 45% | $486 | $1,325 | -$679 | $4,930 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $14 12.8% OTM over spot $12.41 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.31 mid) = $486 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,325/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $14.30) 82% EV / mo +$292 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.6] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~5.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,014 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,382 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $14 @ 67% POP 55% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.47/sh now → $1.04 mid-life (likely $1.11–$1.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,084 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $17.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $14.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,475 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,303 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $14): -$4,930 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $20.50): +$7 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,095 (+$4,380 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-147 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,948, the opportunity cost of earning $1,325/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,064, position total $-4,707 (+$4,768 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 21 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 8.8% | 72% | 47% | $735 | $2,005 | — | $6,634 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $13.50 8.8% OTM over spot $12.41 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.41 mid) = $735 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,005/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $13.91) 78% EV / mo +$176 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~7.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,937 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 47% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,326 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $14 @ 71% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.39/sh now → $0.98 mid-life (likely $1.14–$1.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,424 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $13.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,475 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,303 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $13.50): -$6,634 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $20.50): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,801 (+$2,674 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-147 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,655, the opportunity cost of earning $2,005/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,290, position total $-6,936 (+$2,539 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 25 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 0.7% | 55% | 96% | $1,450 | $3,955 | +$1,950 | $9,822 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $12.50 0.7% OTM over spot $12.41 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.87 mid) = $1,450 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,955/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 55% Breach risk 45% POP (stays ≤ $13.37) 70% EV / mo $-635 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.6-3.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~19.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,291 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 78% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$733 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $14 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.23/sh now → $0.87 mid-life (likely $1.24–$1.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,354 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $13 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $5 below CC-SS $17.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.58 collected) or spot ≥ $13.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,475 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,303 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $12.50): -$9,822 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,994 ($-519 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-147 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,847, the opportunity cost of earning $3,955/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.75 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,175, position total $-10,825 ($-1,350 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.809 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$9,303 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-147
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.17 | 16/25 | $2,040 | $2,065 | 81% | 84% | +$847 | -$5,342 | 57.1% | $-5,505 (vs do-nothing $-5,358) |
| $13.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 21/25 | $2,005 | $2,015 | 72% | 78% | +$176 | -$6,634 | 70.9% | $-6,801 (vs do-nothing $-6,655) |
| $13 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.28 | 10/25 | $2,100 | $2,141 | 69% | 76% | +$550 | -$3,729 | 39.9% | $-3,886 (vs do-nothing $-3,739) |
| $13 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 15/25 | $2,005 | $2,032 | 64% | 73% | +$79 | -$5,278 | 56.5% | $-5,440 (vs do-nothing $-5,293) |
| $13 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.68 | 18/25 | $2,040 | $2,059 | 63% | 72% | +$37 | -$5,992 | 64.1% | $-6,157 (vs do-nothing $-6,010) |
| $12.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.87 | 14/25 | $2,030 | $2,060 | 56% | 68% | $-1 | -$5,094 | 54.5% | $-5,255 (vs do-nothing $-5,108) |
| $12.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 13/25 | $2,056 | $2,089 | 55% | 70% | $-330 | -$5,107 | 54.6% | $-5,267 (vs do-nothing $-5,120) |
| $12.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.42 | 7/25 | $2,205 | $2,254 | 55% | 68% | +$168 | -$2,862 | 30.6% | $-3,016 (vs do-nothing $-2,869) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.