25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.30 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $3,816/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $472/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-10,538 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 22 × $14 | 91% | $1,980 | $1,081 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 25 × $14 | 83% | $1,950 | $291 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 21 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 18.9% | 95% | 11% | $126 | $1,260 | -$720 | $5,764 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $14.50 18.9% OTM over spot $12.20 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.07 mid) = $126 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,260/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $14.56) 95% EV / mo +$922 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.3] median · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~3.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,522 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$938 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.72/sh now → $0.51 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 112 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $15 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $14.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,538 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,284 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $14.50): -$5,764 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $19.50): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,014 (+$4,523 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-229 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,785, the opportunity cost of earning $1,260/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,778, position total $-6,140 (+$4,398 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 22 × $14 | 17 Jul | 3d | 14.8% | 91% | 8% | $198 | $1,980 | — | $7,073 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $14 14.8% OTM over spot $12.20 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.10 mid) = $198 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,980/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $14.10) 92% EV / mo +$1,240 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~5.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,188 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$859 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.68/sh now → $0.48 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 255 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $14 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $17.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $14.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,538 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,284 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $14): -$7,073 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $19.50): +$3 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,324 (+$3,214 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-229 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,095, the opportunity cost of earning $1,980/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,230, position total $-7,593 (+$2,945 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $14 | 17 Jul | 3d | 14.8% | 91% | 18% | $225 | $2,250 | +$270 | $8,037 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $14 14.8% OTM over spot $12.20 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.10 mid) = $225 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $14.10) 92% EV / mo +$1,409 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.8-4.3] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~5.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,398 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$976 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.68/sh now → $0.48 mid-life (likely $0.44–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 280 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $14 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $17.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $14.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,538 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,284 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $14): -$8,037 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,291 (+$2,246 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-229 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,062, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,625, position total $-8,991 (+$1,547 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 24 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 10.7% | 85% | 31% | $384 | $3,840 | +$1,860 | $8,748 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $13.50 10.7% OTM over spot $12.20 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.17 mid) = $384 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,840/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $13.67) 87% EV / mo +$2,143 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 73% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~8.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,821 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$708 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.64/sh now → $0.46 mid-life (likely $0.46–$0.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 566 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $14 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $13.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,538 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,284 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $13.50): -$8,748 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $19.50): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,001 (+$1,537 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-229 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,772, the opportunity cost of earning $3,840/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,192, position total $-9,557 (+$981 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $15 | 24 Jul | 10d | 23.0% | 90% | 20% | $275 | $825 | -$1,125 | $5,487 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $15 23.0% OTM over spot $12.20 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.12 mid) = $275 credit for the 10d cycle → $825/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $15.12) 91% EV / mo +$332 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-4.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,723 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,787 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.17/sh now → $0.82 mid-life (likely $0.70–$1.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 439 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $15 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $2 below CC-SS $17.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $15.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,538 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,284 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15): -$5,487 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,741 (+$4,796 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-229 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,512, the opportunity cost of earning $825/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,075, position total $-6,441 (+$4,097 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 24 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 18.9% | 87% | 28% | $432 | $1,296 | -$654 | $6,300 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $14.50 18.9% OTM over spot $12.20 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.19 mid) = $432 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,296/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $14.69) 88% EV / mo +$526 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [1.0-3.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~3.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,398 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,447 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.11/sh now → $0.78 mid-life (likely $0.72–$1.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 587 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $15 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $14.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,538 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,284 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $14.50): -$6,300 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $19.50): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,553 (+$3,985 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-229 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,324, the opportunity cost of earning $1,296/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,744, position total $-7,109 (+$3,429 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 25 × $14 | 24 Jul | 10d | 14.8% | 83% | 30% | $650 | $1,950 | — | $7,612 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $14 14.8% OTM over spot $12.20 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.27 mid) = $650 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,950/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $14.27) 85% EV / mo +$846 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~4.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,272 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,205 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.05/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.76–$1.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 894 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $14 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $17.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $14.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,538 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,284 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $14): -$7,612 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,866 (+$2,671 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-229 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,637, the opportunity cost of earning $1,950/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,200, position total $-8,566 (+$1,972 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 2.5% | 59% | 87% | $1,300 | $3,900 | +$1,950 | $8,310 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $12.50 2.5% OTM over spot $12.20 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.69 mid) = $1,300 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $13.19) 71% EV / mo +$498 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.8-3.3] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~16.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,623 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 71% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$49 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 94% POP 94% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.88/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.85–$1.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,143 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $13 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $5 below CC-SS $17.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $13.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,538 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,284 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $12.50): -$8,310 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $19.50): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,559 (+$1,979 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-229 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,330, the opportunity cost of earning $3,900/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,180, position total $-8,541 (+$1,997 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.805 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$10,284 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-229
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.09 | 22/25 | $1,980 | $1,985 | 91% | 92% | +$1,240 | -$7,073 | 75.6% | $-7,324 (vs do-nothing $-7,095) |
| $13.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.16 | 12/25 | $1,920 | $1,943 | 85% | 87% | +$1,071 | -$4,374 | 46.8% | $-4,615 (vs do-nothing $-4,386) |
| $14 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 25/25 | $1,950 | $1,950 | 83% | 85% | +$846 | -$7,612 | 81.4% | $-7,866 (vs do-nothing $-7,637) |
| $13.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 19/25 | $1,995 | $2,006 | 75% | 80% | +$506 | -$6,564 | 70.2% | $-6,812 (vs do-nothing $-6,583) |
| $13 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 8/25 | $2,000 | $2,030 | 75% | 81% | +$838 | -$3,244 | 34.7% | $-3,481 (vs do-nothing $-3,252) |
| $13.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 21/25 | $1,927 | $1,934 | 72% | 78% | +$432 | -$6,898 | 73.8% | $-7,148 (vs do-nothing $-6,919) |
| $13 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.48 | 14/25 | $2,016 | $2,035 | 68% | 75% | +$374 | -$5,355 | 57.3% | $-5,598 (vs do-nothing $-5,369) |
| $13 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 17/25 | $2,010 | $2,024 | 66% | 75% | +$375 | -$6,179 | 66.1% | $-6,425 (vs do-nothing $-6,196) |
| $12.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 5/25 | $2,050 | $2,085 | 62% | 74% | +$639 | -$2,197 | 23.5% | $-2,431 (vs do-nothing $-2,202) |
| $12.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 10/25 | $1,950 | $1,976 | 59% | 71% | +$249 | -$4,155 | 44.4% | $-4,394 (vs do-nothing $-4,165) |
| $12.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.87 | 13/25 | $1,996 | $2,017 | 59% | 71% | +$329 | -$5,115 | 54.7% | $-5,357 (vs do-nothing $-5,128) |
| $12 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.06 | 11/25 | $2,058 | $2,082 | 51% | 68% | +$206 | -$4,669 | 49.9% | $-4,909 (vs do-nothing $-4,680) |
| $12 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.87 | 8/25 | $2,088 | $2,118 | 50% | 66% | +$176 | -$3,548 | 37.9% | $-3,785 (vs do-nothing $-3,556) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 4/25 | $2,400 | $2,437 | 45% | 66% | +$369 | -$1,882 | 20.1% | $-2,115 (vs do-nothing $-1,886) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.