CLSK @ $14.39 UNDERWATER $6.35 (30.6% below BE SS)
25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.90 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $3,971/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $472/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-7,387 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$1,985/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$3,971/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
2.4 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
6.8 mo to earn back $26,850
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $17.90 (probe: $18C 17d) still earns $971/mo (24% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 63 (live) · RSI 47 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 50 · %B 43 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.75 (+30%) · daily UBB $18.73 · 1-wk expected move ±$3 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $17.90 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 25 × $18 31 Jul 2026 (17d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $18)
86%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.69/sh now → $1.20 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $19 31 Jul 2026 (17d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $19)
91%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.83/sh now → $1.29 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $20 31 Jul 2026 (17d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $20)
94%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.97/sh now → $1.39 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (11 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.845 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$7,418 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $280
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $15.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.17 | 12/25 | $2,040 | $2,269 | 74% | 78% | $-686 | -$2,678 | 28.6% | $-2,517 (vs do-nothing $-2,798) |
| $16 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.48 | 24/25 | $2,033 | $2,051 | 72% | 78% | $-129 | -$3,411 | 36.5% | $-3,371 (vs do-nothing $-3,651) |
| $16 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.29 | 23/25 | $2,001 | $2,036 | 72% | 75% | $-1,525 | -$3,706 | 39.6% | $-3,656 (vs do-nothing $-3,936) |
| $15.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 19/25 | $2,012 | $2,118 | 67% | 75% | $-151 | -$3,423 | 36.6% | $-3,332 (vs do-nothing $-3,613) |
| $15.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.38 | 18/25 | $2,052 | $2,176 | 67% | 72% | $-1,473 | -$3,638 | 38.9% | $-3,538 (vs do-nothing $-3,818) |
| $15 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 8/25 | $2,080 | $2,380 | 66% | 71% | $-751 | -$2,113 | 22.6% | $-1,913 (vs do-nothing $-2,193) |
| $15 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.55 | 13/25 | $2,145 | $2,357 | 62% | 68% | $-1,072 | -$3,057 | 32.7% | $-2,907 (vs do-nothing $-3,187) |
| $15 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.72 | 16/25 | $2,033 | $2,192 | 61% | 68% | $-1,221 | -$3,490 | 37.3% | $-3,370 (vs do-nothing $-3,650) |
| $14.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.90 | 13/25 | $2,065 | $2,276 | 57% | 66% | $-1,051 | -$3,252 | 34.8% | $-3,102 (vs do-nothing $-3,382) |
| $14.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.70 | 10/25 | $2,100 | $2,365 | 56% | 65% | $-991 | -$2,701 | 28.9% | $-2,521 (vs do-nothing $-2,801) |
| $14.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 6/25 | $2,340 | $2,675 | 55% | 65% | $-871 | -$1,807 | 19.3% | $-1,587 (vs do-nothing $-1,867) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.