25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $16.80 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $4,992/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $541/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-7,475 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 2d | 19 × $15 | 93% | $2,565 | $1,464 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 9d | 24 × $15 | 81% | $2,560 | $607 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 22 × $15.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 17.6% | 97% | 7% | $110 | $1,650 | -$915 | $2,756 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $15.50 17.6% OTM over spot $13.19 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.06 mid) = $110 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,650/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $15.56) 97% EV / mo +$1,409 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-1.6] median · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,366 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,111 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.78/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 96 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $16 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $1 below CC-SS $16.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $15.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.46 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,475 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,453 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $15.50): -$2,756 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $19): +$9 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,769 (+$4,706 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $53 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,822, the opportunity cost of earning $1,650/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,128, position total $-3,048 (+$4,427 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $15 | 17 Jul | 2d | 13.8% | 93% | 7% | $171 | $2,565 | — | $3,254 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $15 13.8% OTM over spot $13.19 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $171 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,565/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $15.11) 94% EV / mo +$2,011 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.2] median · 82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,622 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$834 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.75/sh now → $0.53 mid-life (likely $0.55–$1.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 219 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $15 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $2 below CC-SS $16.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $15.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.46 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,475 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,453 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $15): -$3,254 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $19): +$18 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,259 (+$4,216 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $53 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,311, the opportunity cost of earning $2,565/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,030, position total $-2,941 (+$4,534 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $15 | 17 Jul | 2d | 13.8% | 93% | 14% | $225 | $3,375 | +$810 | $4,282 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $15 13.8% OTM over spot $13.19 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $225 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $15.11) 94% EV / mo +$2,646 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.0] median · 79% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~3.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,458 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,098 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.75/sh now → $0.53 mid-life (likely $0.54–$1.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 199 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $15 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $2 below CC-SS $16.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $15.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.46 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,475 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,453 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15): -$4,282 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,304 (+$3,171 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $53 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,357, the opportunity cost of earning $3,375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,250, position total $-5,179 (+$2,296 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 10.0% | 87% | 27% | $340 | $5,100 | +$2,535 | $4,265 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $14.50 10.0% OTM over spot $13.19 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.18 mid) = $340 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $14.68) 90% EV / mo +$3,610 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-2.2] median · 86% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~6.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,403 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$667 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.71/sh now → $0.50 mid-life (likely $0.56–$1.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 456 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $15 (overshoots $0.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $2 below CC-SS $16.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $14.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.46 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,475 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,453 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $14.50): -$4,265 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $19): +$15 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,273 (+$3,202 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $53 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,325, the opportunity cost of earning $5,100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,240, position total $-4,154 (+$3,321 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $16.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 25.1% | 93% | 15% | $250 | $833 | -$1,727 | $507 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $16.50 25.1% OTM over spot $13.19 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.13 mid) = $250 credit for the 9d cycle → $833/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $16.63) 93% EV / mo +$461 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.8] median · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 69% without) · ~1.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,545 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,131 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.35/sh now → $0.95 mid-life (likely $0.79–$1.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 281 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $17 (overshoots $0.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $0 below CC-SS $16.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $16.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.46 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,475 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,453 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $16.50): -$507 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-529 (+$6,946 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $53 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-582, the opportunity cost of earning $833/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,475, position total $-1,404 (+$6,071 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 23 × $15.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 17.6% | 86% | 29% | $506 | $1,687 | -$873 | $2,490 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $15.50 17.6% OTM over spot $13.19 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.25 mid) = $506 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,687/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $15.75) 88% EV / mo +$832 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.5-2.3] median · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,096 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,483 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.22/sh now → $0.86 mid-life (likely $0.77–$1.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 639 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $16 (overshoots $0.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $1 below CC-SS $16.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $15.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.46 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,475 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,453 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $15.50): -$2,490 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $19): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,507 (+$4,968 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $53 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,559, the opportunity cost of earning $1,687/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,061, position total $-2,984 (+$4,491 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 24 × $15 | 24 Jul | 9d | 13.8% | 81% | 30% | $768 | $2,560 | — | $3,559 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $15 13.8% OTM over spot $13.19 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.33 mid) = $768 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,560/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $15.33) 85% EV / mo +$1,180 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~3.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,100 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,205 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.16/sh now → $0.82 mid-life (likely $0.84–$1.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 891 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $15 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $2 below CC-SS $16.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $15.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.46 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,475 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,453 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $15): -$3,559 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $19): +$3 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,578 (+$3,897 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $53 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,631, the opportunity cost of earning $2,560/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,328, position total $-4,254 (+$3,221 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 2.4% | 59% | 87% | $1,520 | $5,067 | +$2,507 | $5,085 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $13.50 2.4% OTM over spot $13.19 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.79 mid) = $1,520 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,067/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $14.29) 72% EV / mo +$1,306 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.4-2.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 81% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~11.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,347 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 70% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$119 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.99/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.96–$1.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.76/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,089 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $14 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $3 below CC-SS $16.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.76 collected) or spot ≥ $14.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.46 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,475 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,453 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $13.50): -$5,085 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $19): +$15 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,093 (+$2,382 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $53 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,145, the opportunity cost of earning $5,067/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,060, position total $-4,974 (+$2,501 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.824 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$7,453 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $53
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.09 | 19/25 | $2,565 | $2,599 | 93% | 94% | +$2,011 | -$3,254 | 34.8% | $-3,259 (vs do-nothing $-3,311) |
| $14.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.17 | 10/25 | $2,550 | $2,634 | 87% | 90% | +$1,805 | -$2,133 | 22.8% | $-2,110 (vs do-nothing $-2,163) |
| $15 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 24/25 | $2,560 | $2,566 | 81% | 85% | +$1,180 | -$3,559 | 38.1% | $-3,578 (vs do-nothing $-3,631) |
| $14 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.28 | 6/25 | $2,520 | $2,627 | 77% | 83% | +$1,456 | -$1,514 | 16.2% | $-1,479 (vs do-nothing $-1,532) |
| $14.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 19/25 | $2,597 | $2,630 | 75% | 81% | +$937 | -$3,596 | 38.5% | $-3,601 (vs do-nothing $-3,653) |
| $14.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 21/25 | $2,559 | $2,582 | 71% | 79% | +$809 | -$3,471 | 37.1% | $-3,481 (vs do-nothing $-3,534) |
| $14 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 13/25 | $2,557 | $2,624 | 68% | 77% | +$869 | -$2,877 | 30.8% | $-2,863 (vs do-nothing $-2,916) |
| $14 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 17/25 | $2,646 | $2,691 | 65% | 75% | +$755 | -$3,354 | 35.9% | $-3,352 (vs do-nothing $-3,405) |
| $13.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | 4/25 | $2,640 | $2,758 | 62% | 76% | +$1,111 | -$1,145 | 12.2% | $-1,105 (vs do-nothing $-1,157) |
| $13.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.76 | 10/25 | $2,533 | $2,618 | 59% | 72% | +$653 | -$2,543 | 27.2% | $-2,520 (vs do-nothing $-2,573) |
| $13.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.02 | 14/25 | $2,678 | $2,739 | 59% | 72% | +$627 | -$3,196 | 34.2% | $-3,185 (vs do-nothing $-3,238) |
| $13 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.25 | 11/25 | $2,578 | $2,657 | 51% | 69% | +$490 | -$2,808 | 30.0% | $-2,788 (vs do-nothing $-2,841) |
| $13 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 8/25 | $2,667 | $2,762 | 50% | 68% | +$549 | -$2,242 | 24.0% | $-2,214 (vs do-nothing $-2,266) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 3/25 | $2,925 | $3,049 | 45% | 69% | +$731 | -$946 | 10.1% | $-902 (vs do-nothing $-955) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.