CLSK @ $14.49 UNDERWATER $6.25 (30.1% below BE SS)
25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.06 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,719/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $439/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-5,363 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,859/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$5,719/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.6 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
4.7 mo to earn back $26,850
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $17.06 (probe: $17C 16d) still earns $1,781/mo (31% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 63 (live) · RSI 51 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 52 · %B 49 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.83 (+30%) · daily UBB $18.12 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $17.06 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 25 × $17.50 31 Jul 2026 (16d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $17.50)
84%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 16); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.24/sh now → $1.58 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $20 31 Jul 2026 (16d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $20)
95%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 16); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.76/sh now → $1.95 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $18 17 Jul 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $18)
99%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.09/sh now → $0.77 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 24 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.56/sh | +$1,409 cycle +$1,459 | 69% surv 53% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 24 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.13/sh | +$325 cycle +$375 | 75% surv 66% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 31 Jul 2026 | 15d left | +$0.37/sh | +$925 cycle +$975 | 77% surv 68% |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (11 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.838 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,392 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $104
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $16 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.17 | 12/25 | $3,060 | $3,133 | 86% | 89% | +$1,833 | -$1,072 | 11.5% | $-1,004 (vs do-nothing $-1,108) |
| $15.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.27 | 8/25 | $3,240 | $3,336 | 77% | 83% | +$1,528 | -$1,035 | 11.1% | $-955 (vs do-nothing $-1,059) |
| $16 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 20/25 | $3,000 | $3,028 | 76% | 81% | +$1,123 | -$1,227 | 13.1% | $-1,183 (vs do-nothing $-1,287) |
| $16 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 22/25 | $2,929 | $2,946 | 72% | 80% | +$989 | -$778 | 8.3% | $-740 (vs do-nothing $-844) |
| $15.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 15/25 | $3,000 | $3,056 | 69% | 78% | +$976 | -$1,445 | 15.5% | $-1,386 (vs do-nothing $-1,490) |
| $15 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 5/25 | $3,375 | $3,488 | 66% | 77% | +$1,324 | -$807 | 8.6% | $-718 (vs do-nothing $-822) |
| $15 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.81 | 11/25 | $2,970 | $3,049 | 62% | 74% | +$882 | -$1,379 | 14.7% | $-1,308 (vs do-nothing $-1,412) |
| $15 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.03 | 15/25 | $2,897 | $2,953 | 61% | 74% | +$676 | -$1,550 | 16.6% | $-1,491 (vs do-nothing $-1,595) |
| $14.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.22 | 13/25 | $2,974 | $3,041 | 54% | 71% | +$524 | -$1,747 | 18.7% | $-1,682 (vs do-nothing $-1,786) |
| $14.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.02 | 9/25 | $3,060 | $3,150 | 53% | 71% | +$717 | -$1,389 | 14.9% | $-1,312 (vs do-nothing $-1,416) |
| $14.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.72 | 3/25 | $3,240 | $3,364 | 52% | 72% | +$1,074 | -$553 | 5.9% | $-458 (vs do-nothing $-562) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.