CLSK @ $14.11 UNDERWATER $6.63 (32.0% below BE SS)
25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.19 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,125/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $481/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-6,438 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,562/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$5,125/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.8 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
5.2 mo to earn back $26,850
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $17.19 (probe: $17C 15d) still earns $1,300/mo (25% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 60 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 50 · %B 44 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.84 (+34%) · daily UBB $18.11 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $17.19 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 25 × $17.50 31 Jul 2026 (15d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $17.50)
88%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.64/sh now → $1.16 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $18 31 Jul 2026 (15d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $18)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.72/sh now → $1.21 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $18.50 24 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $18.50)
97%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.35/sh now → $0.95 mid-life (likely $0.68–$1.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 108 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $19 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.46/sh | +$1,144 cycle +$1,169 [+$1,165…+$1,779] · 100% credit | 68% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.06/sh | +$161 cycle +$186 [+$35…+$704] · 76% credit | 73% surv 63% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.06/sh | +$161 cycle +$186 [+$35…+$704] · 76% credit | 73% surv 63% |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (8 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.830 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$6,408 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $71
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $15.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 22/25 | $2,640 | $2,664 | 76% | 81% | +$686 | -$3,021 | 32.3% | $-3,039 (vs do-nothing $-3,109) |
| $15.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.56 | 23/25 | $2,576 | $2,592 | 72% | 78% | +$540 | -$2,606 | 27.9% | $-2,628 (vs do-nothing $-2,698) |
| $15 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.48 | 15/25 | $2,700 | $2,780 | 69% | 77% | +$699 | -$2,570 | 27.5% | $-2,559 (vs do-nothing $-2,630) |
| $15 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 19/25 | $2,698 | $2,746 | 66% | 75% | +$467 | -$2,818 | 30.1% | $-2,824 (vs do-nothing $-2,894) |
| $14.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 11/25 | $2,764 | $2,876 | 60% | 72% | +$616 | -$2,226 | 23.8% | $-2,199 (vs do-nothing $-2,270) |
| $14.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.90 | 15/25 | $2,700 | $2,780 | 59% | 71% | +$394 | -$2,690 | 28.8% | $-2,679 (vs do-nothing $-2,750) |
| $14 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.13 | 12/25 | $2,712 | $2,816 | 52% | 68% | +$333 | -$2,476 | 26.5% | $-2,453 (vs do-nothing $-2,524) |
| $14 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 8/25 | $2,580 | $2,716 | 51% | 67% | +$360 | -$1,867 | 20.0% | $-1,828 (vs do-nothing $-1,899) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.