CLSK @ $13.88 UNDERWATER $6.86 (33.1% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
CLSK reports 2026-08-07 (Fri), in 22 days. The recommended CC (22d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-08-07.
25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $16.52 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,700/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $481/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-5,450 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,850/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$5,700/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.6 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
4.7 mo to earn back $26,850
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $16.52 (probe: $16.5C 15d) still earns $1,750/mo (31% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 58 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 48 · %B 40 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.85 (+36%) · daily UBB $18.11 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $16.52 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 25 × $17 7 Aug 2026 (22d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $17)
83%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.48/sh now → $1.75 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $17.50 31 Jul 2026 (15d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $17.50)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.88/sh now → $1.33 mid-life (likely $1.11–$1.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 504 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 15, at $18 (overshoots $0.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.24/sh | +$592 cycle +$1,042 [+$378…+$1,066] · 97% credit | 69% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.10/sh | +$260 cycle +$710 [+$62…+$596] · 82% credit | 73% surv 61% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.10/sh | +$260 cycle +$710 [+$62…+$596] · 82% credit | 73% surv 61% |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 7 Aug 2026 | 14d left | -$0.09/sh | -$233 cycle +$217 [-$509…+$65] · 29% credit | 76% surv 65% |
| budget: banked $450 debit $233 (52% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$217 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $6,632/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $18.50 24 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $18.50)
97%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.59/sh now → $1.13 mid-life (likely $0.81–$1.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 79 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $19 (overshoots $0.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.40/sh | +$990 cycle +$1,015 [+$1,107…+$1,744] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.19/sh | +$479 cycle +$504 [+$529…+$1,149] · 99% credit | 73% surv 60% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.11/sh | +$275 cycle +$300 [+$263…+$1,027] · 90% credit | 78% surv 71% |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$21 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.02/sh | -$57 cycle -$32 [-$134…+$672] · 66% credit | 80% surv 74% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (11 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.836 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,515 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $140
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $15.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 24/25 | $2,880 | $2,886 | 80% | 84% | +$1,242 | -$1,677 | 17.9% | $-1,609 (vs do-nothing $-1,749) |
| $15 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.48 | 16/25 | $2,880 | $2,934 | 73% | 80% | +$1,193 | -$1,662 | 17.8% | $-1,570 (vs do-nothing $-1,710) |
| $15.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.84 | 25/25 | $2,864 | $2,864 | 72% | 80% | +$986 | -$447 | 4.8% | $-382 (vs do-nothing $-522) |
| $15 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.72 | 20/25 | $2,880 | $2,910 | 69% | 77% | +$871 | -$1,597 | 17.1% | $-1,518 (vs do-nothing $-1,657) |
| $15 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.01 | 21/25 | $2,892 | $2,916 | 67% | 77% | +$915 | -$1,068 | 11.4% | $-991 (vs do-nothing $-1,131) |
| $14.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.66 | 12/25 | $2,970 | $3,048 | 65% | 76% | +$1,065 | -$1,630 | 17.4% | $-1,527 (vs do-nothing $-1,666) |
| $14.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 16/25 | $2,944 | $2,998 | 63% | 74% | +$812 | -$1,758 | 18.8% | $-1,666 (vs do-nothing $-1,806) |
| $14.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.20 | 18/25 | $2,945 | $2,987 | 62% | 75% | +$833 | -$1,474 | 15.8% | $-1,388 (vs do-nothing $-1,528) |
| $14 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.35 | 16/25 | $2,945 | $2,999 | 56% | 72% | +$622 | -$1,870 | 20.0% | $-1,778 (vs do-nothing $-1,918) |
| $14 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.14 | 13/25 | $2,964 | $3,036 | 56% | 71% | +$701 | -$1,792 | 19.2% | $-1,691 (vs do-nothing $-1,831) |
| $14 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 9/25 | $2,902 | $2,998 | 55% | 72% | +$818 | -$1,493 | 16.0% | $-1,380 (vs do-nothing $-1,520) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.