25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $16.74 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $454/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-5,913 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 12 × $14.50 | 65% | $2,565 | $555 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $18 | 31 Jul | 15d | 29.6% | 92% | 18% | $225 | $450 | -$2,115 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $18 29.6% OTM over spot $13.89 31 Jul 2026 (15d, $0.41 mid) = $225 credit for the 15d cycle → $450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $18.41) 93% EV / mo +$59 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.3] median · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 71% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $708 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,212 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $18 @ 63% POP 54% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.94/sh now → $1.37 mid-life (likely $1.13–$1.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 378 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 15, at $19 (overshoots $0.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $18 is at/above CC-SS $16.74: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $18.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,913 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,929 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $18): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $16 (+$5,929 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $91 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-75, the opportunity cost of earning $450/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,900, position total $2,491 (+$8,404 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 24 × $16 | 24 Jul | 8d | 15.2% | 86% | 30% | $456 | $1,710 | -$855 | $1,330 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $16 15.2% OTM over spot $13.89 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.24 mid) = $456 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,710/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $16.23) 88% EV / mo +$731 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-2.1] median · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~2.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,991 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,688 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.26/sh now → $0.89 mid-life (likely $0.82–$1.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 656 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $16 (overshoots $0.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $1 below CC-SS $16.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $16.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,913 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,929 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $16): -$1,330 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $19): +$3 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,310 (+$4,602 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $91 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,402, the opportunity cost of earning $1,710/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,384, position total $-1,990 (+$3,923 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 12 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 4.4% | 65% | 58% | $684 | $2,565 | — | $2,009 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 12 × $14.50 4.4% OTM over spot $13.89 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.67 mid) = $684 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,565/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $15.16) 76% EV / mo +$687 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.3-1.6] median · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~9.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,029 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$237 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.08/sh now → $0.77 mid-life (likely $0.97–$1.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,746 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $2 below CC-SS $16.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $15.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,913 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,929 − CC assignment net of premium (12 × $14.50): -$2,009 + Conservative CC premium (13 × $19): +$39 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,953 (+$3,959 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $91 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,045, the opportunity cost of earning $2,565/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,536, position total $-106 (+$5,807 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 24 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 4.4% | 65% | 74% | $1,368 | $5,130 | +$2,565 | $4,018 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $14.50 4.4% OTM over spot $13.89 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.67 mid) = $1,368 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,130/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $15.16) 76% EV / mo +$1,374 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.3-2.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 88% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~7.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,611 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 60% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$474 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.08/sh now → $0.77 mid-life (likely $0.99–$1.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,802 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $2 below CC-SS $16.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $15.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,913 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,929 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $14.50): -$4,018 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $19): +$3 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,998 (+$1,914 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $91 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,090, the opportunity cost of earning $5,130/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,072, position total $-4,678 (+$1,235 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 7 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.831 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,929 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $91
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.53 | 24/25 | $2,544 | $2,550 | 74% | 81% | +$753 | -$1,714 | 18.3% | $-1,694 (vs do-nothing $-1,786) |
| $15 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.70 | 18/25 | $2,520 | $2,562 | 69% | 78% | +$717 | -$1,879 | 20.1% | $-1,842 (vs do-nothing $-1,933) |
| $15 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.79 | 24/25 | $2,585 | $2,591 | 67% | 77% | +$363 | -$2,290 | 24.5% | $-2,270 (vs do-nothing $-2,362) |
| $14.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 12/25 | $2,565 | $2,643 | 65% | 76% | +$687 | -$2,009 | 21.5% | $-1,953 (vs do-nothing $-2,045) |
| $14.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 21/25 | $2,562 | $2,586 | 62% | 73% | $-228 | -$3,431 | 36.7% | $-3,403 (vs do-nothing $-3,494) |
| $14 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 13/25 | $2,600 | $2,672 | 55% | 70% | +$343 | -$2,267 | 24.2% | $-2,215 (vs do-nothing $-2,306) |
| $14 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 9/25 | $2,700 | $2,796 | 55% | 71% | +$628 | -$1,750 | 18.7% | $-1,685 (vs do-nothing $-1,777) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.