25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.35 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $4,848/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $454/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,725 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 19 × $14.50 | 79% | $2,443 | $795 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $15.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 17.9% | 90% | 20% | +8pp | $325 | $1,393 | -$1,050 | $4,290 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $15.50 17.9% OTM over spot $13.14 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.15 mid) = $325 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,393/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $15.65) 92% EV / mo +$827 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $885/mo median; plan ~$602/mo after 68% keep · $3,243 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.8-3.6], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,454 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $19 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.01/sh now → $0.71 mid-life (likely $0.61–$1.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 412 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.35: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $15.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.35, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,559 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15.50): -$4,290 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,455 (+$4,270 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-116 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,340, the opportunity cost of earning $1,393/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.78 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,875, position total $-5,119 (+$3,606 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $15 | 24 Jul | 7d | 14.1% | 85% | 31% | +7pp | $380 | $1,629 | -$814 | $4,077 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $15 14.1% OTM over spot $13.14 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.22 mid) = $380 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,629/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $15.22) 87% EV / mo +$795 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $977/mo median; plan ~$664/mo after 68% keep · $3,102 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.9], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$905 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $19 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.96/sh now → $0.68 mid-life (likely $0.65–$1.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 685 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $2 below CC-SS $17.35: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $15.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.35, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,559 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $15): -$4,077 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $20): +$12 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,231 (+$4,494 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-116 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,115, the opportunity cost of earning $1,629/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.78 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,802, position total $-4,034 (+$4,691 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 10.3% | 79% | 32% | +9pp | $570 | $2,443 | — | $4,837 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $14.50 10.3% OTM over spot $13.14 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.32 mid) = $570 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,443/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $14.81) 83% EV / mo +$1,039 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,295/mo median; plan ~$880/mo after 68% keep · $3,705 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$649 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $19 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.91/sh now → $0.64 mid-life (likely $0.68–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 946 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.35: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $14.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.35, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,559 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $14.50): -$4,837 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $20): +$12 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,991 (+$3,734 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-116 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,875, the opportunity cost of earning $2,443/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.78 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,562, position total $-4,794 (+$3,931 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 2.7% | 60% | 83% | +14pp | $1,160 | $4,971 | +$2,529 | $6,532 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $13.50 2.7% OTM over spot $13.14 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.60 mid) = $1,160 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,971/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $14.11) 72% EV / mo +$1,173 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 73% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,655/mo median; plan ~$1,126/mo after 68% keep · $4,630 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.9], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$10 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $18 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.81/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.77–$1.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,943 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.35: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.58 collected) or spot ≥ $14.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.35, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,559 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $13.50): -$6,532 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $20): +$10 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,687 (+$2,038 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-116 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,572, the opportunity cost of earning $4,971/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.78 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,400, position total $-6,634 (+$2,091 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.815 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,559 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-116
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 19/25 | $2,443 | $2,460 | 79% | 83% | +$1,039 | -$4,837 | 51.7% | $-4,991 (vs do-nothing $-4,875) |
| $14.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 23/25 | $2,464 | $2,470 | 73% | 79% | +$660 | -$5,395 | 57.7% | $-5,557 (vs do-nothing $-5,441) |
| $14.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.74 | 23/25 | $2,431 | $2,437 | 71% | 78% | +$671 | -$4,843 | 51.8% | $-5,005 (vs do-nothing $-4,889) |
| $14 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 14/25 | $2,460 | $2,491 | 70% | 78% | +$770 | -$4,110 | 44.0% | $-4,254 (vs do-nothing $-4,138) |
| $14.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.91 | 25/25 | $2,438 | $2,438 | 69% | 77% | +$502 | -$4,840 | 51.8% | $-5,005 (vs do-nothing $-4,890) |
| $14 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 18/25 | $2,469 | $2,489 | 67% | 75% | +$545 | -$4,870 | 52.1% | $-5,022 (vs do-nothing $-4,906) |
| $14 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.90 | 19/25 | $2,443 | $2,460 | 65% | 75% | +$581 | -$4,647 | 49.7% | $-4,801 (vs do-nothing $-4,685) |
| $14 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.01 | 23/25 | $2,489 | $2,495 | 64% | 74% | +$300 | -$5,372 | 57.5% | $-5,534 (vs do-nothing $-5,418) |
| $13.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 10/25 | $2,486 | $2,529 | 60% | 72% | +$586 | -$3,266 | 34.9% | $-3,402 (vs do-nothing $-3,286) |
| $13.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 14/25 | $2,490 | $2,521 | 59% | 72% | +$453 | -$4,222 | 45.2% | $-4,366 (vs do-nothing $-4,250) |
| $13.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.20 | 19/25 | $2,443 | $2,460 | 59% | 72% | +$239 | -$5,027 | 53.8% | $-5,181 (vs do-nothing $-5,065) |
| $13.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.10 | 16/25 | $2,514 | $2,540 | 59% | 72% | +$523 | -$4,393 | 47.0% | $-4,541 (vs do-nothing $-4,425) |
| $13 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.44 | 16/25 | $2,469 | $2,494 | 54% | 69% | +$226 | -$4,649 | 49.7% | $-4,797 (vs do-nothing $-4,681) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.32 | 13/25 | $2,451 | $2,486 | 53% | 69% | +$418 | -$3,934 | 42.1% | $-4,075 (vs do-nothing $-3,960) |
| $13 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 11/25 | $2,475 | $2,515 | 51% | 68% | +$373 | -$3,625 | 38.8% | $-3,763 (vs do-nothing $-3,647) |
| $13 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.77 | 8/25 | $2,640 | $2,689 | 49% | 67% | +$350 | -$2,861 | 30.6% | $-2,992 (vs do-nothing $-2,877) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.