25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.26 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,036/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $461/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,850 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 24 × $14.50 | 81% | $2,571 | $585 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $15.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 19.3% | 92% | 17% | +8pp | $275 | $1,179 | -$1,393 | $4,122 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $15.50 19.3% OTM over spot $12.99 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.13 mid) = $275 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,179/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $15.63) 93% EV / mo +$745 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $785/mo median; plan ~$534/mo after 68% keep · $3,031 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [0.8-3.8], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,474 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $19 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.99/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.61–$1.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 373 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $15.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,719 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15.50): -$4,122 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,253 (+$4,597 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-81 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,172, the opportunity cost of earning $1,179/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,900, position total $-4,944 (+$3,906 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 25 × $15 | 24 Jul | 7d | 15.5% | 87% | 26% | +8pp | $400 | $1,714 | -$857 | $5,247 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $15 15.5% OTM over spot $12.99 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.18 mid) = $400 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,714/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $15.19) 89% EV / mo +$902 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,007/mo median; plan ~$684/mo after 68% keep · $3,748 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.5], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,263 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $19 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.94/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.60–$1.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 599 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $2 below CC-SS $17.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $15.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,719 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15): -$5,247 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,378 (+$3,472 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-81 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,297, the opportunity cost of earning $1,714/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,025, position total $-6,069 (+$2,781 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 24 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 11.6% | 81% | 31% | +12pp | $600 | $2,571 | — | $6,021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $14.50 11.6% OTM over spot $12.99 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.27 mid) = $600 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,571/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $14.77) 84% EV / mo +$1,013 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,289/mo median; plan ~$876/mo after 68% keep · $3,919 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-3.0], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$915 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $18 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.89/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.63–$1.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 918 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $14.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,719 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $14.50): -$6,021 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $20): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,150 (+$2,700 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-81 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,069, the opportunity cost of earning $2,571/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,648, position total $-6,690 (+$2,160 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 24 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 3.9% | 64% | 76% | +18pp | $1,224 | $5,246 | +$2,674 | $7,797 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $13.50 3.9% OTM over spot $12.99 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.53 mid) = $1,224 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,246/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $14.03) 74% EV / mo +$1,380 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +18pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,019/mo median; plan ~$1,373/mo after 68% keep · $5,515 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.1], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 59% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$135 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $18 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.80/sh now → $0.57 mid-life (likely $0.73–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,764 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.51 collected) or spot ≥ $14.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,719 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $13.50): -$7,797 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $20): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,926 (+$924 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-81 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,845, the opportunity cost of earning $5,246/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,424, position total $-8,466 (+$384 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 13 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.817 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,719 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-81
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 24/25 | $2,571 | $2,574 | 81% | 84% | +$1,013 | -$6,021 | 64.4% | $-6,150 (vs do-nothing $-6,069) |
| $14 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 17/25 | $2,550 | $2,573 | 73% | 79% | +$741 | -$4,945 | 52.9% | $-5,060 (vs do-nothing $-4,979) |
| $14 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.53 | 23/25 | $2,612 | $2,618 | 69% | 76% | +$411 | -$6,276 | 67.1% | $-6,403 (vs do-nothing $-6,322) |
| $14 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.79 | 23/25 | $2,596 | $2,601 | 67% | 76% | +$551 | -$5,678 | 60.7% | $-5,805 (vs do-nothing $-5,724) |
| $14 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 23/25 | $2,588 | $2,593 | 66% | 76% | +$492 | -$5,080 | 54.3% | $-5,207 (vs do-nothing $-5,126) |
| $13.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.51 | 12/25 | $2,623 | $2,660 | 64% | 74% | +$690 | -$3,899 | 41.7% | $-4,004 (vs do-nothing $-3,923) |
| $13.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 16/25 | $2,537 | $2,563 | 62% | 72% | +$443 | -$4,830 | 51.7% | $-4,943 (vs do-nothing $-4,862) |
| $13.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.00 | 18/25 | $2,571 | $2,591 | 61% | 73% | +$522 | -$4,966 | 53.1% | $-5,083 (vs do-nothing $-5,002) |
| $13.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.17 | 21/25 | $2,632 | $2,644 | 61% | 73% | +$487 | -$5,436 | 58.1% | $-5,559 (vs do-nothing $-5,478) |
| $13 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.42 | 17/25 | $2,586 | $2,609 | 55% | 71% | +$467 | -$4,826 | 51.6% | $-4,941 (vs do-nothing $-4,860) |
| $13 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.20 | 15/25 | $2,571 | $2,600 | 55% | 70% | +$412 | -$4,588 | 49.1% | $-4,699 (vs do-nothing $-4,618) |
| $13 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.94 | 13/25 | $2,619 | $2,653 | 54% | 69% | +$328 | -$4,314 | 46.1% | $-4,421 (vs do-nothing $-4,340) |
| $13 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.69 | 9/25 | $2,661 | $2,707 | 53% | 68% | +$360 | -$3,212 | 34.4% | $-3,311 (vs do-nothing $-3,230) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.