CLSK @ $12.99 UNDERWATER $7.75 (37.4% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
CLSK reports 2026-08-07 (Fri), in 21 days. The recommended CC (28d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-08-07.
25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $15.62 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,036/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $461/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-5,450 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,518/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$5,036/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.9 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
5.3 mo to earn back $26,850
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $15.62 (probe: $15.5C 14d) still earns $1,500/mo (30% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 51 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 31 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.77 (+44%) · daily UBB $17.83 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $15.62 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 25 × $16 14 Aug 2026 (28d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $16)
81%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 28); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.16/sh now → $1.53 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $19 14 Aug 2026 (28d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $19)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 28); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.84/sh now → $2.01 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $18 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $18)
99%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.25/sh now → $0.88 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.47/sh | +$1,175 cycle +$1,200 | 68% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$37 cycle +$62 | 73% surv 65% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$22 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$169 cycle +$194 | 81% surv 77% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (13 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 13 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.817 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,382 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-18
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $14.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 24/25 | $2,571 | $2,574 | 81% | 84% | +$1,013 | -$2,100 | 22.5% | $-2,166 (vs do-nothing $-2,148) |
| $14 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 17/25 | $2,550 | $2,573 | 73% | 79% | +$741 | -$2,167 | 23.2% | $-2,220 (vs do-nothing $-2,201) |
| $14 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.53 | 23/25 | $2,612 | $2,618 | 69% | 76% | +$411 | -$2,518 | 26.9% | $-2,582 (vs do-nothing $-2,564) |
| $14 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.79 | 23/25 | $2,596 | $2,601 | 67% | 76% | +$551 | -$1,920 | 20.5% | $-1,984 (vs do-nothing $-1,966) |
| $14 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 23/25 | $2,588 | $2,593 | 66% | 76% | +$492 | -$1,322 | 14.1% | $-1,386 (vs do-nothing $-1,368) |
| $13.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.51 | 12/25 | $2,623 | $2,660 | 64% | 74% | +$690 | -$1,938 | 20.7% | $-1,980 (vs do-nothing $-1,962) |
| $13.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 16/25 | $2,537 | $2,563 | 62% | 72% | +$443 | -$2,216 | 23.7% | $-2,266 (vs do-nothing $-2,248) |
| $13.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.00 | 18/25 | $2,571 | $2,591 | 61% | 73% | +$522 | -$2,025 | 21.7% | $-2,079 (vs do-nothing $-2,061) |
| $13.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.17 | 21/25 | $2,632 | $2,644 | 61% | 73% | +$487 | -$2,005 | 21.4% | $-2,066 (vs do-nothing $-2,047) |
| $13 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.42 | 17/25 | $2,586 | $2,609 | 55% | 71% | +$467 | -$2,048 | 21.9% | $-2,101 (vs do-nothing $-2,082) |
| $13 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.20 | 15/25 | $2,571 | $2,600 | 55% | 70% | +$412 | -$2,137 | 22.9% | $-2,186 (vs do-nothing $-2,167) |
| $13 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.94 | 13/25 | $2,619 | $2,653 | 54% | 69% | +$328 | -$2,190 | 23.4% | $-2,235 (vs do-nothing $-2,216) |
| $13 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.69 | 9/25 | $2,661 | $2,707 | 53% | 68% | +$360 | -$1,741 | 18.6% | $-1,778 (vs do-nothing $-1,759) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.