CLSK @ $14.57 UNDERWATER $6.17 (29.7% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
CLSK reports 2026-08-07 (Fri), in 17 days. The recommended CC (24d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-08-07.
25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $18.69 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,382/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $451/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,275 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,691/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$5,382/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.7 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
5.0 mo to earn back $26,850
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $18.69 (probe: $18.5C 17d) still earns $1,147/mo (21% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$-1,969
Hole (after banked)
$10,244
was $8,275 · -24% earned back
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 62 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 51 · %B 59 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.81 (+29%) · daily UBB $16.92 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $18.69 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 25 × $19 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $19)
87%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 24); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.51/sh now → $1.78 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $19.50 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $19.50)
96%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.64/sh now → $1.16 mid-life (likely $0.78–$1.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 159 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $20 (overshoots $0.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.48/sh | +$1,204 cycle +$1,254 [+$1,317…+$2,007] · 100% credit | 68% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.12/sh | +$300 cycle +$350 [+$305…+$998] · 91% credit | 72% surv 63% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$22 | 14 Aug 2026 | 19d left | +$0.00/sh | +$0 cycle +$50 [-$59…+$848] · 70% credit | 77% surv 71% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $20 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $20)
99%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.05/sh now → $0.75 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$20 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.64/sh | +$1,607 cycle +$1,632 | 68% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$21 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.13/sh | +$327 cycle +$352 | 75% surv 68% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$24 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.12/sh | +$304 cycle +$329 | 82% surv 79% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (17 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$9,260 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,110
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $16.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.12 | 23/25 | $2,760 | $2,778 | 88% | 90% | +$1,281 | -$4,751 | 50.8% | $-3,756 (vs do-nothing $-4,866) |
| $16 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.20 | 14/25 | $2,800 | $2,897 | 82% | 85% | +$1,160 | -$3,480 | 37.2% | $-2,440 (vs do-nothing $-3,550) |
| $15.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 9/25 | $2,700 | $2,841 | 73% | 79% | +$839 | -$2,597 | 27.8% | $-1,532 (vs do-nothing $-2,642) |
| $16 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 20/25 | $2,760 | $2,804 | 73% | 79% | +$561 | -$4,451 | 47.6% | $-3,441 (vs do-nothing $-4,551) |
| $16 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.75 | 21/25 | $2,779 | $2,815 | 70% | 77% | +$538 | -$4,065 | 43.5% | $-3,060 (vs do-nothing $-4,170) |
| $16 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.95 | 23/25 | $2,731 | $2,749 | 69% | 76% | +$460 | -$3,992 | 42.7% | $-2,997 (vs do-nothing $-4,107) |
| $15.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 16/25 | $2,736 | $2,815 | 67% | 75% | +$315 | -$4,185 | 44.8% | $-3,155 (vs do-nothing $-4,265) |
| $15.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.91 | 17/25 | $2,730 | $2,801 | 65% | 74% | +$444 | -$3,868 | 41.4% | $-2,843 (vs do-nothing $-3,953) |
| $15.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.11 | 20/25 | $2,775 | $2,819 | 64% | 74% | +$389 | -$4,151 | 44.4% | $-3,141 (vs do-nothing $-4,251) |
| $15 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 6/25 | $2,700 | $2,868 | 63% | 73% | +$603 | -$1,941 | 20.8% | $-861 (vs do-nothing $-1,971) |
| $15 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 12/25 | $2,700 | $2,815 | 60% | 71% | +$324 | -$3,523 | 37.7% | $-2,473 (vs do-nothing $-3,583) |
| $15 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.29 | 17/25 | $2,741 | $2,812 | 60% | 72% | +$309 | -$4,072 | 43.6% | $-3,047 (vs do-nothing $-4,157) |
| $15 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.09 | 14/25 | $2,693 | $2,790 | 60% | 71% | +$344 | -$3,634 | 38.9% | $-2,594 (vs do-nothing $-3,704) |
Show 4 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $14.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.51 | 15/25 | $2,831 | $2,919 | 55% | 69% | +$276 | -$4,013 | 42.9% | $-2,978 (vs do-nothing $-4,088) |
| $14.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.29 | 12/25 | $2,732 | $2,846 | 54% | 69% | +$247 | -$3,475 | 37.2% | $-2,425 (vs do-nothing $-3,535) |
| $14.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.96 | 10/25 | $2,880 | $3,012 | 52% | 68% | +$239 | -$3,226 | 34.5% | $-2,166 (vs do-nothing $-3,276) |
| $14.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 5/25 | $3,200 | $3,376 | 50% | 67% | +$397 | -$1,773 | 19.0% | $-688 (vs do-nothing $-1,798) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.