CLSK @ $14.59 UNDERWATER $6.15 (29.7% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
CLSK reports 2026-08-07 (Fri), in 17 days. The recommended CC (24d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-08-07.
25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $18.71 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,294/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $451/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,275 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,647/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$5,294/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.8 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
5.1 mo to earn back $26,850
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $18.71 (probe: $18.5C 17d) still earns $1,147/mo (22% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$-1,969
Hole (after banked)
$10,244
was $8,275 · -24% earned back
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 62 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 52 · %B 60 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.81 (+29%) · daily UBB $16.92 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $18.71 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 25 × $19 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $19)
86%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 24); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.49/sh now → $1.76 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $20 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $20)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 24); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.69/sh now → $1.91 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $21 7 Aug 2026 (17d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $21)
95%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.56/sh now → $1.81 mid-life (likely $1.34–$2.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 221 simulated challenges: the $21 strike is typically first touched on day 12 of 17, at $22 (overshoots $0.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.24/sh | +$602 cycle +$727 [+$504…+$1,394] · 96% credit | 68% surv 55% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.05/sh | +$123 cycle +$248 [-$54…+$876] · 72% credit | 70% surv 58% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.05/sh | +$123 cycle +$248 [-$54…+$876] · 72% credit | 70% surv 58% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (17 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$9,262 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,112
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $16.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.12 | 23/25 | $2,760 | $2,778 | 88% | 89% | +$1,233 | -$4,799 | 51.3% | $-3,802 (vs do-nothing $-4,914) |
| $16 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.20 | 14/25 | $2,800 | $2,897 | 82% | 85% | +$1,112 | -$3,509 | 37.5% | $-2,467 (vs do-nothing $-3,579) |
| $16 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 20/25 | $2,760 | $2,804 | 73% | 79% | +$620 | -$4,493 | 48.1% | $-3,481 (vs do-nothing $-4,593) |
| $15.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 9/25 | $2,700 | $2,841 | 73% | 79% | +$791 | -$2,616 | 28.0% | $-1,549 (vs do-nothing $-2,661) |
| $16 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.75 | 21/25 | $2,779 | $2,815 | 70% | 77% | +$512 | -$4,108 | 43.9% | $-3,102 (vs do-nothing $-4,213) |
| $16 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.95 | 23/25 | $2,731 | $2,749 | 68% | 76% | +$437 | -$4,040 | 43.2% | $-3,043 (vs do-nothing $-4,155) |
| $15.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 16/25 | $2,736 | $2,815 | 67% | 75% | +$372 | -$4,218 | 45.1% | $-3,186 (vs do-nothing $-4,298) |
| $15.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.91 | 17/25 | $2,730 | $2,801 | 65% | 74% | +$419 | -$3,904 | 41.8% | $-2,877 (vs do-nothing $-3,989) |
| $15.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.11 | 20/25 | $2,775 | $2,819 | 64% | 74% | +$367 | -$4,193 | 44.8% | $-3,181 (vs do-nothing $-4,293) |
| $15 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 6/25 | $2,700 | $2,868 | 62% | 73% | +$555 | -$1,954 | 20.9% | $-872 (vs do-nothing $-1,984) |
| $15 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 12/25 | $2,700 | $2,815 | 60% | 71% | +$291 | -$3,548 | 37.9% | $-2,496 (vs do-nothing $-3,608) |
| $15 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.29 | 17/25 | $2,741 | $2,812 | 59% | 72% | +$240 | -$4,108 | 43.9% | $-3,081 (vs do-nothing $-4,193) |
| $15 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.09 | 14/25 | $2,693 | $2,790 | 59% | 71% | +$320 | -$3,663 | 39.2% | $-2,621 (vs do-nothing $-3,733) |
Show 4 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $14.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.51 | 15/25 | $2,831 | $2,919 | 55% | 69% | +$216 | -$4,045 | 43.3% | $-3,008 (vs do-nothing $-4,120) |
| $14.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.29 | 12/25 | $2,732 | $2,846 | 54% | 69% | +$224 | -$3,500 | 37.4% | $-2,448 (vs do-nothing $-3,560) |
| $14.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.96 | 10/25 | $2,880 | $3,012 | 52% | 67% | +$206 | -$3,246 | 34.7% | $-2,185 (vs do-nothing $-3,296) |
| $14.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 5/25 | $3,200 | $3,376 | 50% | 66% | +$343 | -$1,783 | 19.1% | $-696 (vs do-nothing $-1,808) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.