25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $18.82 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $4,809/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $451/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,275 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 3d | 21 × $16.50 | 86% | $2,520 | $734 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 10d | 23 × $16.50 | 78% | $2,415 | $147 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 23 × $17 | 24 Jul | 3d | 15.6% | 91% | 18% | +3pp | $161 | $1,610 | -$910 | $4,027 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $17 15.6% OTM over spot $14.70 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.11 mid) = $161 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,610/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $17.11) 92% EV / mo +$618 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,037/mo median; plan ~$705/mo after 68% keep · $2,096 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-1.8], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,048 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.74/sh now → $0.53 mid-life (likely $0.51–$0.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 268 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $18 (overshoots $0.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $2 below CC-SS $18.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $17.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,271 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $17): -$4,027 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $21): +$10 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,020 (+$5,255 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,121 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,142, the opportunity cost of earning $1,610/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.81 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,002, position total $-3,019 (+$5,256 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $17 | 24 Jul | 3d | 15.6% | 91% | 18% | +4pp | $175 | $1,750 | -$770 | $4,377 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $17 15.6% OTM over spot $14.70 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.11 mid) = $175 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $17.11) 92% EV / mo +$672 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 67% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,134/mo median; plan ~$771/mo after 68% keep · $2,539 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.4-2.4], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,139 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.74/sh now → $0.53 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 285 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $18 (overshoots $0.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $2 below CC-SS $18.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $17.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,271 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $17): -$4,377 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,380 (+$4,895 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,121 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,502, the opportunity cost of earning $1,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.81 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,350, position total $-3,377 (+$4,898 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 21 × $16.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 12.2% | 86% | 17% | +9pp | $252 | $2,520 | — | $4,621 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $16.50 12.2% OTM over spot $14.70 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.15 mid) = $252 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $16.66) 88% EV / mo +$867 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 77% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,541/mo median; plan ~$1,048/mo after 68% keep · $3,050 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.5], measured ONLY among the 77% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$805 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 85% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.71/sh now → $0.50 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 507 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $17 (overshoots $0.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $2 below CC-SS $18.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $16.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,271 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $16.50): -$4,621 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $21): +$20 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,605 (+$4,670 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,121 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,726, the opportunity cost of earning $2,520/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.81 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,599, position total $-3,606 (+$4,669 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 25 × $16 | 24 Jul | 3d | 8.8% | 80% | 42% | +11pp | $500 | $5,000 | +$2,480 | $6,552 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $16 8.8% OTM over spot $14.70 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.23 mid) = $500 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $16.23) 83% EV / mo +$1,483 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 79% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,554/mo median; plan ~$1,737/mo after 68% keep · $4,821 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.3], measured ONLY among the 79% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$703 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $20 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.68/sh now → $0.48 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 768 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $17 (overshoots $0.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $3 below CC-SS $18.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $16.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,271 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $16): -$6,552 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,555 (+$2,720 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,121 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,677, the opportunity cost of earning $5,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.81 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,525, position total $-5,552 (+$2,723 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $19 | 31 Jul | 10d | 29.3% | 93% | 14% | +1pp | $125 | $375 | -$2,040 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $19 29.3% OTM over spot $14.70 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.10 mid) = $125 credit for the 10d cycle → $375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $19.10) 94% EV / mo $-0 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $275/mo median; plan ~$187/mo after 68% keep · $809 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.6], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,469 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.47/sh now → $1.04 mid-life (likely $0.83–$1.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 242 simulated challenges: the $19 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $20 (overshoots $0.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $19 is at/above CC-SS $18.82: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $19.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $19)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,271 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $19): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $996 (+$9,271 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,121 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-125, the opportunity cost of earning $375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.81 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $972 (+$9,247 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 20 × $17 | 31 Jul | 10d | 15.6% | 82% | 37% | +4pp | $540 | $1,620 | -$795 | $3,101 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $17 15.6% OTM over spot $14.70 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.31 mid) = $540 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,620/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $17.31) 85% EV / mo +$422 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $978/mo median; plan ~$665/mo after 68% keep · $2,672 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-2.7], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,210 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.24/sh now → $0.88 mid-life (likely $0.84–$1.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 842 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $18 (overshoots $0.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $2 below CC-SS $18.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $17.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,271 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $17): -$3,101 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $21): +$25 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,080 (+$6,195 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,121 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,201, the opportunity cost of earning $1,620/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.81 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,080, position total $-2,082 (+$6,193 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 23 × $16.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 12.2% | 78% | 39% | +6pp | $805 | $2,415 | — | $4,533 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $16.50 12.2% OTM over spot $14.70 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.39 mid) = $805 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,415/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $16.89) 81% EV / mo +$482 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,290/mo median; plan ~$877/mo after 68% keep · $3,137 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-2.5], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,119 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.18/sh now → $0.84 mid-life (likely $0.88–$1.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,179 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $17 (overshoots $0.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $2 below CC-SS $18.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $16.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,271 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $16.50): -$4,533 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $21): +$10 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,526 (+$4,749 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,121 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,648, the opportunity cost of earning $2,415/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.81 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,508, position total $-3,525 (+$4,750 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 22 × $15 | 31 Jul | 10d | 2.0% | 58% | 90% | +10pp | $1,650 | $4,950 | +$2,535 | $6,755 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $15 2.0% OTM over spot $14.70 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.81 mid) = $1,650 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,950/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $15.81) 70% EV / mo +$197 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,006/mo median; plan ~$1,364/mo after 68% keep · $4,411 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.4], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 72% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$55 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $19 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.02/sh now → $0.73 mid-life (likely $0.99–$1.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,171 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $16 (overshoots $0.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $4 below CC-SS $18.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $15.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,271 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $15): -$6,755 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $21): +$15 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,744 (+$2,531 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,121 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,865, the opportunity cost of earning $4,950/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.81 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,732, position total $-5,744 (+$2,531 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$9,271 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,121
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.12 | 21/25 | $2,520 | $2,555 | 86% | 88% | +$867 | -$4,621 | 49.4% | $-3,605 (vs do-nothing $-4,726) |
| $16 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.20 | 13/25 | $2,600 | $2,706 | 80% | 83% | +$771 | -$3,407 | 36.4% | $-2,350 (vs do-nothing $-3,472) |
| $16.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 23/25 | $2,415 | $2,433 | 78% | 81% | +$482 | -$4,533 | 48.5% | $-3,526 (vs do-nothing $-4,648) |
| $16.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.59 | 24/25 | $2,499 | $2,508 | 73% | 79% | +$319 | -$4,154 | 44.4% | $-3,152 (vs do-nothing $-4,274) |
| $16 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 18/25 | $2,484 | $2,546 | 72% | 78% | +$382 | -$4,249 | 45.4% | $-3,218 (vs do-nothing $-4,339) |
| $16.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.78 | 25/25 | $2,438 | $2,438 | 71% | 78% | +$221 | -$3,852 | 41.2% | $-2,855 (vs do-nothing $-3,977) |
| $15.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 9/25 | $2,700 | $2,841 | 71% | 77% | +$509 | -$2,719 | 29.1% | $-1,642 (vs do-nothing $-2,764) |
| $16 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.75 | 19/25 | $2,515 | $2,568 | 69% | 76% | +$330 | -$3,934 | 42.1% | $-2,908 (vs do-nothing $-4,029) |
| $16 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.95 | 21/25 | $2,494 | $2,529 | 67% | 75% | +$286 | -$3,928 | 42.0% | $-2,912 (vs do-nothing $-4,033) |
| $15.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 15/25 | $2,565 | $2,653 | 65% | 74% | +$162 | -$4,126 | 44.1% | $-3,080 (vs do-nothing $-4,201) |
| $15.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.91 | 15/25 | $2,409 | $2,497 | 64% | 73% | +$246 | -$3,616 | 38.7% | $-2,570 (vs do-nothing $-3,691) |
| $15.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.11 | 18/25 | $2,498 | $2,559 | 63% | 73% | +$220 | -$3,979 | 42.6% | $-2,948 (vs do-nothing $-4,069) |
| $15 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 6/25 | $2,700 | $2,868 | 60% | 70% | +$282 | -$2,022 | 21.6% | $-931 (vs do-nothing $-2,052) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.29 | 15/25 | $2,419 | $2,507 | 58% | 71% | +$150 | -$3,796 | 40.6% | $-2,750 (vs do-nothing $-3,871) |
| $15 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 11/25 | $2,475 | $2,599 | 58% | 70% | +$99 | -$3,378 | 36.1% | $-2,311 (vs do-nothing $-3,433) |
| $15 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.09 | 13/25 | $2,501 | $2,606 | 58% | 70% | +$174 | -$3,550 | 38.0% | $-2,493 (vs do-nothing $-3,615) |
| $14.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.51 | 13/25 | $2,454 | $2,560 | 53% | 68% | +$121 | -$3,654 | 39.1% | $-2,597 (vs do-nothing $-3,719) |
| $14.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.29 | 11/25 | $2,504 | $2,628 | 52% | 68% | +$86 | -$3,334 | 35.7% | $-2,267 (vs do-nothing $-3,389) |
| $14.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.96 | 9/25 | $2,592 | $2,733 | 50% | 66% | +$20 | -$3,025 | 32.3% | $-1,948 (vs do-nothing $-3,070) |
| $14.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 4/25 | $2,560 | $2,745 | 47% | 64% | +$27 | -$1,472 | 15.7% | $-371 (vs do-nothing $-1,492) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.