CLSK @ $14.82 UNDERWATER $5.91 (28.5% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
CLSK reports 2026-08-07 (Fri), in 17 days. The recommended CC (10d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-08-07.
25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.19 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,250/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $546/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-4,937 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,625/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$5,250/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.8 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
5.1 mo to earn back $26,850
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $17.19 (probe: $17C 17d) still earns $2,471/mo (47% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$-1,969
Hole (after banked)
$6,906
was $4,937 · -40% earned back
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 64 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 53 · %B 68 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.85 (+27%) · daily UBB $16.48 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $17.19 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 25 × $17.50 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $17.50)
85%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.55/sh now → $1.10 mid-life (likely $1.05–$1.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 699 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $18 (overshoots $0.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.19/sh | +$467 cycle +$1,017 [+$128…+$732] · 88% credit | 69% surv 56% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.19/sh | +$467 cycle +$1,017 [+$128…+$732] · 88% credit | 69% surv 56% |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.18/sh | +$455 cycle +$1,005 [+$87…+$732] · 84% credit | 67% surv 54% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 19d left | -$0.17/sh | -$414 cycle +$136 [-$960…-$212] · 18% credit | 78% surv 72% |
| budget: banked $550 debit $414 (75% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$136 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $3,686/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $20 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $20)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 24); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.34/sh now → $2.37 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $19.50 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $19.50)
95%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.83/sh now → $1.30 mid-life (likely $0.99–$1.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 206 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $20 (overshoots $0.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.21/sh | +$536 cycle +$636 [+$352…+$1,232] · 92% credit | 67% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.03/sh | +$64 cycle +$164 [-$189…+$710] · 64% credit | 71% surv 60% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.03/sh | +$64 cycle +$164 [-$189…+$710] · 64% credit | 71% surv 60% |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (14 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.846 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,002 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $114
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $17 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.11 | 24/25 | $2,640 | $2,644 | 89% | 91% | +$1,276 | -$192 | 2.1% | $-126 (vs do-nothing $-240) |
| $16.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.16 | 17/25 | $2,720 | $2,748 | 84% | 86% | +$972 | -$901 | 9.6% | $-821 (vs do-nothing $-935) |
| $16 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.29 | 10/25 | $2,900 | $2,953 | 77% | 82% | +$1,096 | -$900 | 9.6% | $-806 (vs do-nothing $-920) |
| $16.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.42 | 21/25 | $2,646 | $2,660 | 76% | 81% | +$623 | -$567 | 6.1% | $-495 (vs do-nothing $-609) |
| $16.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.67 | 23/25 | $2,719 | $2,726 | 72% | 78% | +$480 | -$46 | 0.5% | $22 (vs do-nothing $-92) |
| $15.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.38 | 7/25 | $2,660 | $2,724 | 67% | 76% | +$535 | -$917 | 9.8% | $-817 (vs do-nothing $-931) |
| $16 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.79 | 19/25 | $2,649 | $2,670 | 67% | 76% | +$335 | -$760 | 8.1% | $-684 (vs do-nothing $-798) |
| $15.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 12/25 | $2,664 | $2,710 | 63% | 74% | +$498 | -$1,140 | 12.2% | $-1,050 (vs do-nothing $-1,164) |
| $15.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.99 | 16/25 | $2,795 | $2,827 | 62% | 73% | +$358 | -$1,120 | 12.0% | $-1,038 (vs do-nothing $-1,152) |
| $15.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.84 | 25/25 | $2,625 | $2,625 | 62% | 73% | $-646 | -$2,125 | 22.7% | $-2,060 (vs do-nothing $-2,175) |
| $15 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.13 | 19/25 | $2,684 | $2,705 | 57% | 71% | $-297 | -$2,014 | 21.5% | $-1,938 (vs do-nothing $-2,052) |
| $15 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.19 | 13/25 | $2,730 | $2,772 | 57% | 70% | +$278 | -$1,300 | 13.9% | $-1,212 (vs do-nothing $-1,326) |
| $15 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 5/25 | $3,000 | $3,071 | 56% | 70% | +$572 | -$795 | 8.5% | $-691 (vs do-nothing $-805) |
Show 1 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $15 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.96 | 10/25 | $2,880 | $2,933 | 56% | 70% | +$481 | -$1,230 | 13.2% | $-1,136 (vs do-nothing $-1,250) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.