CLSK @ $15.23 UNDERWATER $5.51 (26.6% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
CLSK reports 2026-08-07 (Fri), in 16 days. The recommended CC (2d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-08-07.
25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $16.80 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,812/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $547/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-3,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,906/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$5,812/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.6 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
4.6 mo to earn back $26,850
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $16.80 (probe: $17C 16d) still earns $3,234/mo (56% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$-1,969
Hole (after banked)
$5,219
was $3,250 · -61% earned back
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 68 (live) · RSI 55 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 54 · %B 74 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.90 (+24%) · daily UBB $16.59 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $16.80 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 25 × $17.50 14 Aug 2026 (23d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $17.50)
74%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 23); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.26/sh now → $1.60 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
💰 Richer · sell 25 × $20 7 Aug 2026 (16d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $20)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 16); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.19/sh now → $1.55 mid-life (likely $1.28–$2.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 462 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 16, at $21 (overshoots $0.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 15d left | +$0.35/sh | +$877 cycle +$1,352 [+$716…+$1,445] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 15d left | +$0.07/sh | +$180 cycle +$655 [-$61…+$614] · 68% credit | 72% surv 61% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 15d left | +$0.07/sh | +$180 cycle +$655 [-$61…+$614] · 68% credit | 72% surv 61% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 15d left | -$0.15/sh | -$365 cycle +$110 [-$697…+$54] · 27% credit | 73% surv 64% |
| budget: banked $475 debit $365 (77% used ≈ 1.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$110 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $7,008/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 25 × $17 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $17)
91%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.76/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.55–$1.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 256 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $17 (overshoots $0.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.58/sh | +$1,456 cycle +$1,756 [+$1,090…+$1,531] · 96% credit | 68% surv 53% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.22/sh | +$543 cycle +$843 [-$171…+$558] · 68% credit | 82% surv 78% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.15/sh | +$366 cycle +$666 [-$364…+$374] · 57% credit | 84% surv 81% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.08/sh | +$212 cycle +$512 [-$396…+$201] · 48% credit | 77% surv 70% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$22 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.04/sh | -$110 cycle +$190 [-$942…-$127] · 18% credit | 87% surv 85% |
| budget: banked $300 debit $110 (37% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$190 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $1,675/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (20 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.851 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$3,342 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $492
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $17 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.12 | 17/25 | $3,060 | $3,300 | 91% | 92% | +$2,160 | -$0 | 0.0% | $424 (vs do-nothing $-68) |
| $16.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.21 | 10/25 | $3,150 | $3,600 | 84% | 87% | +$1,949 | -$91 | 1.0% | $241 (vs do-nothing $-251) |
| $17 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.42 | 21/25 | $2,940 | $3,060 | 78% | 82% | +$1,113 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,038 (vs do-nothing +$546) |
| $16 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.33 | 6/25 | $2,970 | $3,540 | 73% | 81% | +$1,466 | -$283 | 3.0% | $114 (vs do-nothing $-379) |
| $17 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.69 | 23/25 | $2,976 | $3,036 | 73% | 79% | +$808 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,711 (vs do-nothing +$1,219) |
| $16.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 17/25 | $2,947 | $3,187 | 72% | 78% | +$807 | -$0 | 0.0% | $593 (vs do-nothing +$100) |
| $17 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.95 | 24/25 | $2,974 | $3,004 | 71% | 78% | +$689 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,388 (vs do-nothing +$1,896) |
| $16.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.85 | 19/25 | $3,028 | $3,208 | 68% | 76% | +$754 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,231 (vs do-nothing +$739) |
| $16.50 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.09 | 21/25 | $2,986 | $3,106 | 67% | 75% | +$429 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,813 (vs do-nothing +$1,321) |
| $16 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 14/25 | $3,127 | $3,457 | 65% | 74% | +$679 | -$183 | 2.0% | $85 (vs do-nothing $-407) |
| $16 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.03 | 16/25 | $3,090 | $3,360 | 63% | 74% | +$680 | -$0 | 0.0% | $603 (vs do-nothing +$110) |
| $16 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.29 | 18/25 | $3,029 | $3,239 | 62% | 73% | +$429 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,084 (vs do-nothing +$592) |
| $15.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.51 | 4/25 | $3,060 | $3,690 | 60% | 74% | +$1,100 | -$316 | 3.4% | $112 (vs do-nothing $-380) |
Show 7 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $15.50 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.48 | 16/25 | $3,089 | $3,359 | 58% | 71% | +$364 | -$0 | 0.0% | $523 (vs do-nothing +$30) |
| $15.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.24 | 13/25 | $3,023 | $3,383 | 58% | 71% | +$583 | -$79 | 0.8% | $205 (vs do-nothing $-287) |
| $15.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.89 | 10/25 | $2,967 | $3,417 | 57% | 70% | +$395 | -$411 | 4.4% | $-79 (vs do-nothing $-571) |
| $15 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.64 | 14/25 | $2,995 | $3,325 | 53% | 69% | +$198 | -$225 | 2.4% | $43 (vs do-nothing $-449) |
| $15 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.47 | 11/25 | $3,032 | $3,452 | 52% | 68% | +$354 | -$364 | 3.9% | $-48 (vs do-nothing $-540) |
| $15 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.11 | 8/25 | $2,960 | $3,470 | 50% | 67% | +$280 | -$553 | 5.9% | $-189 (vs do-nothing $-681) |
| $15 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 3/25 | $3,375 | $4,035 | 44% | 68% | +$933 | -$315 | 3.4% | $129 (vs do-nothing $-363) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.