CLSK @ $15.15 UNDERWATER $5.59 (27.0% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
CLSK reports 2026-08-07 (Fri), in 16 days. The recommended CC (2d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-08-07.
25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.23 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,469/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $493/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-4,325 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,234/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$6,469/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.4 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
4.2 mo to earn back $26,850
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $17.23 (probe: $17C 16d) still earns $3,516/mo (54% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$-1,969
Hole (after banked)
$6,294
was $4,325 · -46% earned back
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 67 (live) · RSI 56 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 54 · %B 72 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.92 (+25%) · daily UBB $16.60 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $17.23 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 25 × $18 14 Aug 2026 (23d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $18)
79%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 23); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.53/sh now → $1.79 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
💰 Richer · sell 25 × $19.50 7 Aug 2026 (16d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $19.50)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 16); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.36/sh now → $1.67 mid-life (likely $1.39–$2.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 529 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 16, at $20 (overshoots $0.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 15d left | +$0.31/sh | +$772 cycle +$1,397 [+$626…+$1,410] · 100% credit | 70% surv 55% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 15d left | +$0.16/sh | +$409 cycle +$1,034 [+$229…+$976] · 93% credit | 72% surv 58% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 15d left | +$0.16/sh | +$409 cycle +$1,034 [+$229…+$976] · 93% credit | 72% surv 58% |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 15d left | -$0.04/sh | -$99 cycle +$526 [-$324…+$378] · 47% credit | 74% surv 62% |
| budget: banked $625 debit $99 (16% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$526 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $8,159/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 25 × $17.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $17.50)
96%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.95/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.66–$1.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 86 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $18 (overshoots $0.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.65/sh | +$1,633 cycle +$1,833 [+$1,213…+$1,775] · 94% credit | 70% surv 53% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.22/sh | +$556 cycle +$756 [-$219…+$675] · 70% credit | 83% surv 79% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.11/sh | +$286 cycle +$486 [-$542…+$393] · 55% credit | 85% surv 81% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.05/sh | +$132 cycle +$332 [-$639…+$182] · 44% credit | 78% surv 71% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (19 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$4,677 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $627
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $17 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.14 | 16/25 | $3,360 | $3,546 | 92% | 93% | +$2,686 | -$142 | 1.5% | $309 (vs do-nothing $-318) |
| $16.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 10/25 | $3,300 | $3,609 | 85% | 89% | +$2,298 | -$509 | 5.4% | $8 (vs do-nothing $-619) |
| $17 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | 23/25 | $3,373 | $3,415 | 79% | 83% | +$1,523 | -$0 | 0.0% | $860 (vs do-nothing +$233) |
| $16 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.36 | 6/25 | $3,240 | $3,632 | 78% | 86% | +$2,271 | -$521 | 5.6% | $40 (vs do-nothing $-587) |
| $17 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.75 | 23/25 | $3,234 | $3,276 | 74% | 80% | +$1,140 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,573 (vs do-nothing +$946) |
| $16.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.55 | 18/25 | $3,300 | $3,444 | 73% | 80% | +$1,241 | -$321 | 3.4% | $107 (vs do-nothing $-519) |
| $16.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.90 | 20/25 | $3,375 | $3,478 | 69% | 78% | +$1,051 | -$0 | 0.0% | $750 (vs do-nothing +$123) |
| $16.50 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.09 | 23/25 | $3,270 | $3,311 | 68% | 78% | +$928 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,205 (vs do-nothing +$578) |
| $16 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 14/25 | $3,453 | $3,680 | 66% | 77% | +$1,211 | -$684 | 7.3% | $-211 (vs do-nothing $-838) |
| $16 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.09 | 16/25 | $3,270 | $3,456 | 64% | 75% | +$921 | -$222 | 2.4% | $229 (vs do-nothing $-398) |
| $16 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.32 | 19/25 | $3,271 | $3,395 | 63% | 75% | +$920 | -$0 | 0.0% | $591 (vs do-nothing $-35) |
| $15.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.55 | 4/25 | $3,300 | $3,733 | 63% | 80% | +$1,865 | -$471 | 5.0% | $111 (vs do-nothing $-515) |
| $15.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.96 | 11/25 | $3,520 | $3,809 | 59% | 73% | +$1,097 | -$845 | 9.0% | $-340 (vs do-nothing $-966) |
Show 6 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $15.50 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.52 | 17/25 | $3,370 | $3,535 | 59% | 73% | +$834 | -$354 | 3.8% | $85 (vs do-nothing $-541) |
| $15.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.30 | 14/25 | $3,412 | $3,639 | 58% | 73% | +$846 | -$600 | 6.4% | $-127 (vs do-nothing $-754) |
| $15 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.73 | 15/25 | $3,385 | $3,591 | 53% | 71% | +$707 | -$748 | 8.0% | $-286 (vs do-nothing $-913) |
| $15 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.53 | 12/25 | $3,442 | $3,711 | 53% | 70% | +$727 | -$838 | 9.0% | $-344 (vs do-nothing $-970) |
| $15 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.20 | 9/25 | $3,600 | $3,930 | 51% | 70% | +$929 | -$926 | 9.9% | $-398 (vs do-nothing $-1,025) |
| $15 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.81 | 3/25 | $3,645 | $4,099 | 46% | 74% | +$1,563 | -$426 | 4.6% | $168 (vs do-nothing $-459) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.