25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.92 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,344/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $417/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-5,600 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 2d | 20 × $17 | 90% | $2,700 | $293 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 9d | 21 × $17 | 77% | $2,800 | $27 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $19 | 31 Jul | 9d | 24.5% | 92% | 17% | +3pp | $175 | $583 | -$2,117 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $19 24.5% OTM over spot $15.26 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.12 mid) = $175 credit for the 9d cycle → $583/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $19.12) 92% EV / mo +$58 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $404/mo median; plan ~$275/mo after 68% keep · $856 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,933 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.76/sh now → $1.24 mid-life (likely $1.03–$1.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 325 simulated challenges: the $19 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $20 (overshoots $0.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $19 is at/above CC-SS $17.92: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $19.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $19)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,643 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $19): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $43 (+$5,643 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $93 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-50, the opportunity cost of earning $583/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.89 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $2,114 (+$7,714 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 14 × $17 | 24 Jul | 2d | 11.4% | 90% | 20% | +5pp | $126 | $1,890 | -$810 | $1,156 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $17 11.4% OTM over spot $15.26 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.12 mid) = $126 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,890/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $17.11) 91% EV / mo +$1,076 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 78% whole by 9mo vs 73% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,344/mo median; plan ~$914/mo after 68% keep · $1,808 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-1.7], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$837 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $19 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.97/sh now → $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.73–$1.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 379 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $18 (overshoots $0.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $1 below CC-SS $17.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $17.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,643 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $17): -$1,156 + Conservative CC premium (11 × $21): +$22 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,091 (+$4,509 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $93 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,184, the opportunity cost of earning $1,890/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.89 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,520, position total $-384 (+$5,216 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $17 | 24 Jul | 2d | 11.4% | 90% | 12% | +12pp | $180 | $2,700 | — | $1,651 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $17 11.4% OTM over spot $15.26 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.12 mid) = $180 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $17.11) 91% EV / mo +$1,537 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 78% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,819/mo median; plan ~$1,237/mo after 68% keep · $2,764 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.3-2.2], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,195 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $19 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.97/sh now → $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.72–$1.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 350 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $18 (overshoots $0.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $1 below CC-SS $17.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $17.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,643 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $17): -$1,651 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $21): +$10 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,598 (+$4,002 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $93 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,691, the opportunity cost of earning $2,700/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.89 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,600, position total $-1,476 (+$4,124 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 21 × $16.50 | 24 Jul | 2d | 8.1% | 83% | 36% | +14pp | $357 | $5,355 | +$2,655 | $2,615 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $16.50 8.1% OTM over spot $15.26 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.21 mid) = $357 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,355/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $16.71) 86% EV / mo +$2,554 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 84% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,116/mo median; plan ~$2,119/mo after 68% keep · $3,560 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.3-2.1], measured ONLY among the 84% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,027 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $19 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.93/sh now → $0.66 mid-life (likely $0.75–$1.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 693 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $17 (overshoots $0.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $1 below CC-SS $17.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $16.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,643 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $16.50): -$2,615 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $21): +$8 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,565 (+$3,035 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $93 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,657, the opportunity cost of earning $5,355/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.89 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,662, position total $-2,540 (+$3,060 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $19 | 31 Jul | 9d | 24.5% | 92% | 17% | +3pp | $175 | $583 | -$2,217 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $19 24.5% OTM over spot $15.26 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.12 mid) = $175 credit for the 9d cycle → $583/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $19.12) 92% EV / mo +$58 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $404/mo median; plan ~$275/mo after 68% keep · $856 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,933 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.76/sh now → $1.24 mid-life (likely $1.03–$1.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 325 simulated challenges: the $19 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $20 (overshoots $0.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $19 is at/above CC-SS $17.92: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $19.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $19)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,643 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $19): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $43 (+$5,643 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $93 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-50, the opportunity cost of earning $583/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.89 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $2,114 (+$7,714 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $17.50 | 31 Jul | 9d | 14.7% | 82% | 38% | +4pp | $551 | $1,837 | -$963 | $238 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $17.50 14.7% OTM over spot $15.26 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.36 mid) = $551 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,837/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $17.86) 85% EV / mo +$593 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,235/mo median; plan ~$840/mo after 68% keep · $2,065 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,534 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $19 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.55/sh now → $1.10 mid-life (likely $1.10–$1.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 845 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $18 (overshoots $0.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $0 below CC-SS $17.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $17.86 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,643 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $17.50): -$238 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $21): +$12 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-184 (+$5,416 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $93 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-276, the opportunity cost of earning $1,837/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.89 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,090, position total $36 (+$5,636 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 21 × $17 | 31 Jul | 9d | 11.4% | 77% | 38% | +7pp | $840 | $2,800 | — | $1,082 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $17 11.4% OTM over spot $15.26 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.45 mid) = $840 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $17.45) 82% EV / mo +$827 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 79% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,825/mo median; plan ~$1,241/mo after 68% keep · $2,425 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.4-1.7], measured ONLY among the 79% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,366 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $19 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.48/sh now → $1.05 mid-life (likely $1.11–$1.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,131 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $18 (overshoots $0.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $1 below CC-SS $17.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $17.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,643 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $17): -$1,082 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $21): +$8 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,032 (+$4,568 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $93 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,124, the opportunity cost of earning $2,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.89 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,129, position total $-1,007 (+$4,593 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 21 × $16 | 31 Jul | 9d | 4.8% | 64% | 76% | +14pp | $1,638 | $5,460 | +$2,660 | $2,384 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $16 4.8% OTM over spot $15.26 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.83 mid) = $1,638 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,460/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $16.83) 75% EV / mo +$1,591 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 83% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,060/mo median; plan ~$2,081/mo after 68% keep · $3,310 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.3-1.7], measured ONLY among the 83% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$377 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $18 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.36/sh now → $0.96 mid-life (likely $1.22–$1.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.78/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,839 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $17 (overshoots $0.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $2 below CC-SS $17.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.78 collected) or spot ≥ $16.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,643 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $16): -$2,384 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $21): +$8 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,334 (+$3,266 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $93 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,426, the opportunity cost of earning $5,460/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.89 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,431, position total $-2,309 (+$3,291 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.850 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,643 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $93
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.09 | 20/25 | $2,700 | $2,719 | 90% | 91% | +$1,537 | -$1,651 | 17.7% | $-1,598 (vs do-nothing $-1,691) |
| $16.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.17 | 11/25 | $2,805 | $2,858 | 83% | 86% | +$1,338 | -$1,370 | 14.7% | $-1,299 (vs do-nothing $-1,392) |
| $17 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 21/25 | $2,800 | $2,815 | 77% | 82% | +$827 | -$1,082 | 11.6% | $-1,032 (vs do-nothing $-1,124) |
| $17 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.60 | 24/25 | $2,700 | $2,704 | 73% | 79% | +$413 | -$757 | 8.1% | $-712 (vs do-nothing $-805) |
| $16 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.31 | 6/25 | $2,790 | $2,861 | 72% | 80% | +$1,102 | -$963 | 10.3% | $-882 (vs do-nothing $-975) |
| $16.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.55 | 15/25 | $2,750 | $2,788 | 71% | 78% | +$758 | -$1,298 | 13.9% | $-1,235 (vs do-nothing $-1,328) |
| $16.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.76 | 19/25 | $2,708 | $2,730 | 68% | 76% | +$404 | -$1,245 | 13.3% | $-1,191 (vs do-nothing $-1,283) |
| $16.50 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.00 | 21/25 | $2,739 | $2,754 | 67% | 76% | +$493 | -$872 | 9.3% | $-822 (vs do-nothing $-914) |
| $16 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.78 | 11/25 | $2,860 | $2,912 | 64% | 75% | +$833 | -$1,249 | 13.4% | $-1,178 (vs do-nothing $-1,271) |
| $16 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.99 | 15/25 | $2,784 | $2,822 | 63% | 74% | +$492 | -$1,388 | 14.8% | $-1,325 (vs do-nothing $-1,418) |
| $16 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.89 | 24/25 | $2,786 | $2,790 | 62% | 73% | $-313 | -$2,461 | 26.3% | $-2,416 (vs do-nothing $-2,509) |
| $15.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 4/25 | $3,420 | $3,499 | 59% | 74% | +$1,269 | -$738 | 7.9% | $-653 (vs do-nothing $-746) |
| $15.50 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 20/25 | $2,739 | $2,758 | 57% | 71% | $-363 | -$2,731 | 29.2% | $-2,678 (vs do-nothing $-2,771) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.14 | 13/25 | $2,779 | $2,824 | 57% | 71% | +$302 | -$1,658 | 17.7% | $-1,591 (vs do-nothing $-1,684) |
| $15.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.97 | 9/25 | $2,910 | $2,970 | 57% | 72% | +$659 | -$1,301 | 13.9% | $-1,226 (vs do-nothing $-1,319) |
| $15 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.50 | 14/25 | $2,739 | $2,780 | 52% | 69% | +$147 | -$1,982 | 21.2% | $-1,917 (vs do-nothing $-2,010) |
| $15 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.35 | 11/25 | $2,784 | $2,837 | 51% | 69% | +$201 | -$1,722 | 18.4% | $-1,651 (vs do-nothing $-1,744) |
| $15 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.22 | 7/25 | $2,847 | $2,914 | 49% | 69% | +$527 | -$1,187 | 12.7% | $-1,108 (vs do-nothing $-1,201) |
| $15 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.81 | 3/25 | $3,645 | $3,728 | 44% | 68% | +$874 | -$632 | 6.8% | $-545 (vs do-nothing $-638) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.