CLSK @ $15.31 UNDERWATER $5.43 (26.2% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
CLSK reports 2026-08-07 (Fri), in 16 days. The recommended CC (9d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-08-07.
25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.18 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,672/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $417/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-3,900 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,836/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$5,672/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.6 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
4.7 mo to earn back $26,850
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $17.18 (probe: $17C 16d) still earns $3,141/mo (55% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$-1,969
Hole (after banked)
$5,869
was $3,900 · -50% earned back
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 68 (live) · RSI 56 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 54 · %B 77 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.93 (+24%) · daily UBB $16.48 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $17.18 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 25 × $17.50 31 Jul 2026 (9d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $17.50)
82%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.23/sh now → $0.87 mid-life (likely $0.88–$1.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 892 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $18 (overshoots $0.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.38/sh | +$958 cycle +$1,633 [+$774…+$1,144] · 100% credit | 67% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.18/sh | +$458 cycle +$1,133 [+$238…+$600] · 97% credit | 72% surv 62% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$318 cycle +$993 [-$70…+$479] · 67% credit | 76% surv 69% |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.16/sh | -$409 cycle +$266 [-$960…-$333] · 13% credit | 80% surv 76% |
| budget: banked $675 debit $409 (61% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$266 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $2,952/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $21 14 Aug 2026 (23d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $21)
91%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 23); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.80/sh now → $1.98 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $18 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $18)
97%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.73/sh now → $0.52 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 76 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $18 (overshoots $0.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.45/sh | +$1,116 cycle +$1,141 [+$898…+$1,260] · 97% credit | 65% surv 53% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$22 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.19/sh | +$483 cycle +$508 [+$37…+$617] · 75% credit | 83% surv 79% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.13/sh | +$322 cycle +$347 [-$66…+$411] · 71% credit | 75% surv 68% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (15 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.851 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$3,980 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $305
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $16.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.14 | 14/25 | $2,940 | $3,126 | 82% | 85% | +$1,082 | -$757 | 8.1% | $-578 (vs do-nothing $-883) |
| $17 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.36 | 24/25 | $2,880 | $2,897 | 77% | 81% | +$614 | -$0 | 0.0% | $519 (vs do-nothing +$214) |
| $17 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.67 | 23/25 | $2,889 | $2,923 | 73% | 79% | +$699 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,223 (vs do-nothing +$919) |
| $16 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.23 | 9/25 | $3,105 | $3,375 | 71% | 77% | +$604 | -$856 | 9.2% | $-632 (vs do-nothing $-937) |
| $16.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.48 | 18/25 | $2,880 | $2,998 | 71% | 77% | +$488 | -$361 | 3.9% | $-218 (vs do-nothing $-523) |
| $17 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.87 | 25/25 | $2,837 | $2,837 | 71% | 78% | +$545 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,803 (vs do-nothing +$1,498) |
| $16.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.83 | 19/25 | $2,957 | $3,058 | 68% | 76% | +$650 | -$0 | 0.0% | $418 (vs do-nothing +$113) |
| $16.50 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.99 | 22/25 | $2,841 | $2,891 | 66% | 75% | +$399 | -$0 | 0.0% | $787 (vs do-nothing +$483) |
| $16 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 14/25 | $2,847 | $3,032 | 64% | 73% | +$270 | -$799 | 8.5% | $-620 (vs do-nothing $-925) |
| $16 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.01 | 15/25 | $2,841 | $3,009 | 62% | 73% | +$542 | -$256 | 2.7% | $-86 (vs do-nothing $-391) |
| $16 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.04 | 21/25 | $2,849 | $2,916 | 62% | 72% | +$40 | -$295 | 3.2% | $-180 (vs do-nothing $-484) |
| $15.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.42 | 5/25 | $3,150 | $3,488 | 57% | 70% | +$506 | -$630 | 6.7% | $-371 (vs do-nothing $-675) |
| $15.50 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.40 | 16/25 | $2,922 | $3,074 | 57% | 71% | +$358 | -$449 | 4.8% | $-288 (vs do-nothing $-593) |
Show 2 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $15.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.21 | 13/25 | $2,949 | $3,152 | 57% | 70% | +$463 | -$612 | 6.5% | $-424 (vs do-nothing $-729) |
| $15.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 11/25 | $2,933 | $3,170 | 56% | 69% | +$185 | -$969 | 10.4% | $-763 (vs do-nothing $-1,068) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.