CLSK @ $15.39 UNDERWATER $5.34 (25.8% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
CLSK reports 2026-08-07 (Fri), in 16 days. The recommended CC (8d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-08-07.
25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.18 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,250/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $418/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-3,713 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,125/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$6,250/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.5 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
4.3 mo to earn back $26,850
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $17.18 (probe: $17C 15d) still earns $3,500/mo (56% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$-1,969
Hole (after banked)
$5,682
was $3,713 · -53% earned back
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 69 (live) · RSI 56 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 54 · %B 78 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.93 (+23%) · daily UBB $16.49 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $17.18 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 25 × $17.50 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $17.50)
82%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.23/sh now → $0.87 mid-life (likely $0.83–$1.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 815 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $18 (overshoots $0.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.43/sh | +$1,071 cycle +$1,796 [+$854…+$1,346] · 100% credit | 68% surv 54% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.19/sh | +$466 cycle +$1,191 [+$76…+$673] · 80% credit | 76% surv 69% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$98 cycle +$823 [-$356…+$267] · 42% credit | 78% surv 72% |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$60 cycle +$785 [-$284…+$190] · 40% credit | 75% surv 66% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.10/sh | -$253 cycle +$472 [-$788…-$93] · 21% credit | 80% surv 76% |
| budget: banked $725 debit $253 (35% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$472 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $3,205/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $18.50 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $18.50)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.34/sh now → $0.95 mid-life (likely $0.82–$1.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 400 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $19 (overshoots $0.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.47/sh | +$1,166 cycle +$1,541 [+$1,062…+$1,578] · 100% credit | 68% surv 54% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$246 cycle +$621 [-$75…+$635] · 70% credit | 78% surv 71% |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.06/sh | +$153 cycle +$528 [-$93…+$451] · 64% credit | 74% surv 65% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.05/sh | -$125 cycle +$250 [-$511…+$239] · 39% credit | 80% surv 74% |
| budget: banked $375 debit $125 (33% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$250 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $3,741/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $20.50 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $20.50)
97%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.57/sh now → $1.11 mid-life (likely $0.85–$1.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 80 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 8, at $21 (overshoots $0.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.55/sh | +$1,365 cycle +$1,490 [+$1,535…+$2,105] · 100% credit | 68% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$22 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.14/sh | +$357 cycle +$482 [+$363…+$897] · 89% credit | 74% surv 64% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$23 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.07/sh | +$166 cycle +$291 [+$115…+$844] · 80% credit | 78% surv 72% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (12 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.853 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$3,800 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $337
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $17 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 22/25 | $3,218 | $3,278 | 77% | 82% | +$1,098 | -$0 | 0.0% | $586 (vs do-nothing +$249) |
| $17 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.70 | 23/25 | $3,220 | $3,260 | 72% | 78% | +$897 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,311 (vs do-nothing +$973) |
| $16.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 17/25 | $3,315 | $3,475 | 71% | 78% | +$947 | -$267 | 2.9% | $-99 (vs do-nothing $-437) |
| $17 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.92 | 25/25 | $3,136 | $3,136 | 70% | 77% | +$766 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,945 (vs do-nothing +$1,608) |
| $16.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.85 | 19/25 | $3,230 | $3,350 | 67% | 76% | +$774 | -$0 | 0.0% | $476 (vs do-nothing +$139) |
| $16.50 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.06 | 22/25 | $3,180 | $3,240 | 66% | 75% | +$638 | -$0 | 0.0% | $960 (vs do-nothing +$623) |
| $16 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.69 | 13/25 | $3,364 | $3,604 | 63% | 74% | +$797 | -$633 | 6.8% | $-426 (vs do-nothing $-763) |
| $16 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 15/25 | $3,150 | $3,350 | 61% | 73% | +$692 | -$190 | 2.0% | $-3 (vs do-nothing $-340) |
| $16 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.25 | 19/25 | $3,239 | $3,359 | 61% | 73% | +$578 | -$0 | 0.0% | $286 (vs do-nothing $-51) |
| $15.50 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.48 | 16/25 | $3,229 | $3,409 | 56% | 71% | +$533 | -$315 | 3.4% | $-138 (vs do-nothing $-475) |
| $15.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.25 | 13/25 | $3,250 | $3,490 | 55% | 70% | +$581 | -$555 | 5.9% | $-348 (vs do-nothing $-685) |
| $15.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.88 | 10/25 | $3,300 | $3,600 | 55% | 69% | +$566 | -$797 | 8.5% | $-560 (vs do-nothing $-897) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.