CLSK @ $15.26 UNDERWATER $5.48 (26.4% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
CLSK reports 2026-08-07 (Fri), in 15 days. The recommended CC (8d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-08-07.
25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.24 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,300/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $411/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-4,125 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,650/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$5,300/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.8 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
5.1 mo to earn back $26,850
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $17.24 (probe: $17C 15d) still earns $1,350/mo (25% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$-1,969
Hole (after banked)
$6,094
was $4,125 · -48% earned back
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 68 (live) · RSI 55 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 53 · %B 78 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.90 (+24%) · daily UBB $16.32 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $17.24 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 25 × $17.50 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $17.50)
84%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.32/sh now → $0.94 mid-life (likely $0.91–$1.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 735 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $18 (overshoots $0.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.32/sh | +$804 cycle +$1,354 [+$509…+$1,080] · 98% credit | 68% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.18/sh | +$461 cycle +$1,011 [+$104…+$677] · 84% credit | 69% surv 57% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.17/sh | +$422 cycle +$972 [-$101…+$637] · 67% credit | 71% surv 62% |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.15/sh | -$367 cycle +$183 [-$1,016…-$212] · 19% credit | 75% surv 70% |
| budget: banked $550 debit $367 (67% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$183 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $3,293/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $20 14 Aug 2026 (22d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $20)
88%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.71/sh now → $1.92 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $19.50 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $19.50)
95%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.56/sh now → $1.11 mid-life (likely $0.85–$1.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 174 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $20 (overshoots $0.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.38/sh | +$951 cycle +$1,001 [+$868…+$1,600] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.24/sh | +$592 cycle +$642 [+$447…+$1,177] · 92% credit | 69% surv 56% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.25/sh | +$614 cycle +$664 [+$373…+$1,303] · 87% credit | 70% surv 61% |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (11 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.851 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,204 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $129
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $17 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 23/25 | $2,760 | $2,768 | 79% | 83% | +$785 | -$0 | 0.0% | $276 (vs do-nothing +$147) |
| $16.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 18/25 | $2,700 | $2,728 | 72% | 79% | +$448 | -$605 | 6.5% | $-512 (vs do-nothing $-641) |
| $16.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.68 | 20/25 | $2,720 | $2,740 | 69% | 77% | +$370 | -$112 | 1.2% | $-23 (vs do-nothing $-152) |
| $16 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.83 | 16/25 | $2,656 | $2,692 | 63% | 74% | +$257 | -$650 | 7.0% | $-553 (vs do-nothing $-682) |
| $16 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.97 | 21/25 | $2,778 | $2,794 | 62% | 73% | +$44 | -$559 | 6.0% | $-472 (vs do-nothing $-601) |
| $15.50 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 20/25 | $2,782 | $2,802 | 57% | 70% | $-365 | -$1,432 | 15.3% | $-1,343 (vs do-nothing $-1,472) |
| $15.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.77 | 10/25 | $2,888 | $2,948 | 57% | 71% | +$383 | -$966 | 10.3% | $-857 (vs do-nothing $-986) |
| $15.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.06 | 13/25 | $2,756 | $2,804 | 57% | 71% | +$296 | -$879 | 9.4% | $-776 (vs do-nothing $-905) |
| $15 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.24 | 16/25 | $2,705 | $2,741 | 52% | 68% | $-315 | -$1,594 | 17.0% | $-1,497 (vs do-nothing $-1,626) |
| $15 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.34 | 10/25 | $2,680 | $2,740 | 51% | 68% | +$320 | -$896 | 9.6% | $-787 (vs do-nothing $-916) |
| $15 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.96 | 8/25 | $2,880 | $2,948 | 48% | 66% | +$148 | -$1,021 | 10.9% | $-908 (vs do-nothing $-1,037) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.