CLSK @ $15.68 UNDERWATER $5.06 (24.4% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
CLSK reports 2026-08-07 (Fri), in 15 days. The recommended CC (8d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-08-07.
25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.17 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,025/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $403/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-3,100 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,012/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$6,025/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.6 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
4.5 mo to earn back $26,850
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $17.17 (probe: $17C 15d) still earns $3,900/mo (65% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$-1,969
Hole (after banked)
$5,069
was $3,100 · -64% earned back
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 71 (live) · RSI 56 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 55 · %B 84 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.95 (+21%) · daily UBB $16.46 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $17.17 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 25 × $17.50 14 Aug 2026 (22d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $17.50)
72%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.47/sh now → $1.75 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 25 × $18 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $18)
84%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.31/sh now → $0.93 mid-life (likely $0.94–$1.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 765 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $19 (overshoots $0.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.45/sh | +$1,115 cycle +$1,715 [+$890…+$1,366] · 100% credit | 68% surv 54% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.28/sh | +$703 cycle +$1,303 [+$314…+$887] · 92% credit | 75% surv 66% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.07/sh | +$166 cycle +$766 [-$219…+$297] · 50% credit | 73% surv 63% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$194 cycle +$794 [-$300…+$358] · 49% credit | 77% surv 70% |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.19/sh | -$480 cycle +$120 [-$1,123…-$371] · 12% credit | 81% surv 77% |
| budget: banked $600 debit $480 (80% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$120 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $3,065/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $21 14 Aug 2026 (22d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $21)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.27/sh now → $2.31 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (13 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 13 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.857 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$3,197 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $347
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $17.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.61 | 25/25 | $3,050 | $3,050 | 74% | 80% | +$668 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,622 (vs do-nothing +$1,275) |
| $17 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 20/25 | $3,075 | $3,175 | 73% | 78% | +$532 | -$0 | 0.0% | $633 (vs do-nothing +$286) |
| $17 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.78 | 20/25 | $3,120 | $3,220 | 69% | 76% | +$683 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,373 (vs do-nothing +$1,026) |
| $17 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.04 | 22/25 | $3,120 | $3,180 | 67% | 76% | +$692 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,047 (vs do-nothing +$1,700) |
| $16.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.56 | 15/25 | $3,150 | $3,350 | 66% | 75% | +$447 | -$161 | 1.7% | $36 (vs do-nothing $-311) |
| $16.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.93 | 17/25 | $3,162 | $3,322 | 64% | 74% | +$539 | -$0 | 0.0% | $624 (vs do-nothing +$277) |
| $16.50 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.93 | 24/25 | $3,044 | $3,064 | 63% | 73% | $-168 | -$0 | 0.0% | $738 (vs do-nothing +$391) |
| $16 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 11/25 | $3,094 | $3,374 | 58% | 71% | +$348 | -$459 | 4.9% | $-222 (vs do-nothing $-569) |
| $16 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.43 | 16/25 | $3,120 | $3,300 | 58% | 71% | +$546 | -$0 | 0.0% | $607 (vs do-nothing +$261) |
| $16 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.16 | 13/25 | $3,016 | $3,256 | 58% | 71% | +$503 | -$9 | 0.1% | $208 (vs do-nothing $-139) |
| $15.50 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.63 | 14/25 | $3,112 | $3,332 | 53% | 71% | +$427 | -$52 | 0.6% | $155 (vs do-nothing $-192) |
| $15.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.38 | 11/25 | $3,036 | $3,316 | 52% | 69% | +$403 | -$316 | 3.4% | $-79 (vs do-nothing $-426) |
| $15.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.01 | 8/25 | $3,030 | $3,370 | 50% | 67% | +$331 | -$526 | 5.6% | $-259 (vs do-nothing $-606) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.